Overcoming Bias

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More Reliable Cars

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This is a blog on why we believe and do what we do, why we pretend otherwise, how we might do better, and what our descendants might do, if they don't all die.
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More Reliable Cars

Robin Hanson
Jun 26, 2010
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More Reliable Cars

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The most recent survey by the Consumer Reports National Research Center found that five-year-old vehicles had about one-third fewer problems than the five-year-old vehicles we studied in April 2005. In fact, owners of about two-thirds of those vehicles reported no problems. And serious repairs, such as engine or transmission replacement, were quite rare. (p.15, June ’10, Consumer Reports)

Car problem rates falling 1/3 in five years is change you might not notice, but if you think about it, its a pretty big deal.  Most people are surprised to hear that the world economy doubles roughly every fifteen years; when they think back fifteen years, the world doesn’t seem that different.   Besides a few big changes, most things seem pretty similar. But this is illusory – most change happens behind the scenes. In fact, one of the reasons why change can be so fast is that most of it happens behind the scenes. If ordinary people had to notice and deal with more changes, we just couldn’t change this much.

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More Reliable Cars

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Overcoming Bias Commenter
May 15

Many of the Mercedes OM617 diesel engines from the 1970's /80's have done more than 500,000 miles.

If we could build cars 40 years ago that did 500,000 miles Then how come cars of today only go between 100,000 to 200,000 miles.

I don't believe that today's cars are getting more reliable.

I believe that the car companies are actually designing the cars to fail somewhere between 100,000 to 200,000 miles because they want a fast turnover of business.

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Overcoming Bias Commenter
May 15

Also, have you seen the new Hyndai Sonata? Even bargain basement Hyundai is putting a lot more thought into styling and design. It's not the 1950s again... yet. But it seems like cars are a lot cooler than they were, definately 10 years ago, maybe even 5 years ago.

I parked next to a Sonata yesterday. I'd go so far as to say it was sexy. Crazy, isn't it?

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