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gwern's avatar

Science fiction is Near, policy analysis & forecasting is Far; Karl Schroeder, http://www.antipope.org/cha... :

> For about ten years now I've been periodically hired to write fictionalized versions of foresight findings. It works like this: mysterious government group A approaches me and tells me they've just spent six months researching the future of X (where X is something like "farm equipment" or "Alternatives To The Syringe"). What they've got is one or more scenarios, which are basically alternative plotlines for future events. They'd like me to turn these into actual stories, which I'm happy to do. (The most extreme example of this is the book Crisis in Zefra, which I wrote for the Canadian army back in 2005). ... Curiously, when I write scenario fictions I'm not trying to generate new ideas of my own, but rather to represent the ideas that some set of futurists, subject experts, or public panels has already developed. This makes scenario fictions different than SF prototypes. .... Science fiction is more than just a genre of fiction. Hell, it's more than just fiction. It's a mode of thought; because our brains are hardwired and optimized to think in narratives, SF can be seen as a primary means by which we make sense of and plan for the future. By understanding how this process works, we have an opportunity to grow a new branch of SF parallel to but not replacing or displacing the traditional arm--a branch that's rigorous and methodical and deliberately used to help solve real-world problems. In fact, that's been happening for a while now (see Johnson's book); I'm delighted to have found myself in a position to be able to help make it formally recognized.

I understand David Brin has been hired frequently for much the same thing.

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Overcoming Bias Commenter's avatar

http://www.npr.org/2011/05/...

At this point, there is no real controversy that area 51 exists. This NPR report discusses a book about what is known about area 51. The author of this book had only one source (and makes that clear) about a crashed UFO with aliens brought to area 51. In this version, the "aliens" were humans surgically modified to look like aliens, the UFO was a flying disk developed by Nazi Germany and the purpose was for the USSR, Stalin, to screw with the US in an odd form of Psy Ops that could be helpful before or during a military confrontation.

It ain't no proof, but if you read the history of what the secret services of different countries have done to each other, it is completely within the bounds of reality. Unless the author of this book is a complete liar, that there is some truth in the story may be the most likely explanation for the events she recounts.

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