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Overcoming Bias Commenter's avatar

I do not think that rationality somehow inherently boosts certain causes, not even its own. You use rationality to optimize the outcome of your chosen cause, but you cannot use it to pick your cause in the first place. The idea that "all rational people ought to agree" on something always implicitly presupposes a shared goal, such as, humanity, less suffering, world peace, increased general wellbeing, etc. I.e., causes that are widely shared, but not necessarily in themselves "rational" in any way.So, unless you are very clear on the goal you are trying to pursue rationally, no amount of rational thought is going to give you any directive on how to act.

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Overcoming Bias Commenter's avatar

I wonder if the most valuable use of betting markets would be pedagogical. If politican X proposes to use huge tariffs to "protect the nations economy", arguments against the plan cannot easily be fitted into a soundbite and will be ignored by a rationally-ignorant voter.

On the other hand, if you could point to the betting markets and say that the smart money thinks that this plan would hurt the nations economy, even the most rationally-ignorant voter might be persuaded.

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