For five minutes near the end (48:45 to 53:45) of this hour long Freakonomics radio show on “The Folly of Prediction,” I discuss promising applications of prediction markests. We end it this way:

Dubner: So that sounds very logical, very appealing; how realistic is it?

Hanson: Well it depends on there being a set of customers who want this product. So, you know, if prediction markets have an Achilles heel it is certainly the possibility that people don’t really want accurate forecasts.