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This is a blog on why we believe and do what we do, why we pretend otherwise, how we might do better, and what our descendants might do, if they don't all die.
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For five minutes near the end (48:45 to 53:45) of this hour long Freakonomics radio show on “The Folly of Prediction,” I discuss promising applications of prediction markests. We end it this way:
Dubner: So that sounds very logical, very appealing; how realistic is it?
Hanson: Well it depends on there being a set of customers who want this product. So, you know, if prediction markets have an Achilles heel it is certainly the possibility that people don’t really want accurate forecasts.
Me on Freakonomics
"If there's anything worth arguing about, I'll either bet on it or shut up" Amarillo Slim