23 Comments

Hello Brethren in the Lord,May the peace and unity of the holy spirit fall upon you and your entire family as you read this splendid message from the synagogue church of all nations (SCOAN).

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It seems compound interest can produce a great return throughout ones life. After one passes away, however, things change. What had been easily invested by one individual suddenly becomes something that needs to be professionally managed. Fees add up and the real return goes down. But worse, is that anxious would-be heirs often sue to break the trust. They succeed a lot of time, ending the perpetuity.

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Are you remembering diversion of the return to consumption? In the long-run, we're all dead - the point of investing is to consume at some point.

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"historically, investment returns have consistently exceeded growth rates."

That seems unlikely: my great-grandfather's portfolio of farm mortgages, railroad bonds etc. hasn't exactly outperformed the overall U.S. economy. Of course, if he had bought some of those "stock" things, he might have done better, but that would have demanded unusual prescience for a schoolteacher in the 1890s. It's hard to find trustees who will outperform the overall investment market for a thousand years.

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I have just realized that reading Overcoming Bias is a bias - noone does it. ;)

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I'm talking about the long run, not the current unusual period, and I"m talking overall rates of return on investment, not just low-risk investment.

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The interest rate, after inflation, is negative, not zero.

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LOL thank God for the lawyers.

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The collapse of the financial system does not mean "Mad Max". We have many instances of fiat currencies blowing up throughout history, and they did not lead to cannibal gangs on motorcycles. Instead, in each and every case, hyperinflation has led to the use of alternative currencies, including gold.

The fact that so many equate the collapse of a fiat ponzi scheme with the end of the world is a pretty fascinating insight into people's belief systems, though.

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All this means is that people extracting rents have too much money and there are not enough rentees who want to, or can afford to, rent that money.

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Because if the entire financial sector collapses, the one thing we'll really want more of it gold... It's going to be so useful in that post-apocalyptic society.

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Nice to see some people with a clue about economics commenting here on OB. Gives me hope that when this Fiat / Debt / Ponzi system collapses in a couple years we will have some smart folks around who haven't mindlessly consumed the flavor-aid being dispensed by mainstream economics.

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Exactly, negative real interest rates as far as the eye can see.

I'd recommend gold, as the current financial system is clearly falling apart. . .

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In the current environment of negative real interest rates and the likely imminent unraveling of the global financial system, Mr. Hall's observation is right to the point.

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I recognise that this post is about the legal barriers, but ignoring them I'd be interested why you think it will work, apart from the em scenario you have put forward before. I don't remember what probability you assign to that scenario.

Currently I do not know how to even earn 0% real interest on my savings or investments and I don't know when that will change.

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Seems like you could potentially do even better by working to reduce existential risks [1], thereby ensuring that there is a future to inherit gifts from the present.

[1] http://www.nickbostrom.com/...

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