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Overcoming Bias Commenter's avatar

You don't want to publish papers that are most likely to be true. You want to publish papers that change your Bayesian priors the most. This system would screen out all novel ideas.

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Overcoming Bias Commenter's avatar

Should we have a prediction market in how much the prediction market idea can be successfully extended in the myriad ways you propose, and then fund the development of those markets accordingly?

Of course it makes sense to develop the ideas that you continue to flog out new and different applications of the idea. And part of the value of doing that is it gets others, including myself, to thinking, what are the limits and how can we determine them?

So I ask you, how good at predicting corporate values are the stock market? Maybe this is already studied and reported?

I can certainly speak qualitatively of the stock markets failures. It did not predict the total explosion of mortgage backed securities and the effect of that on numerous banks and other large tradable companies. It did not predict the over-valuation, the over-investment, in internet companies in the 1990s.

I'd love to start seeing some education from you on the limits and failures of prediction markets intermixed with the amazing stream of abstruse proposals for their use.

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