Is there manipulation in the Hillary Clinton prediction market?
www.overcomingbias.com
Both Eric Zitzewitz and I have recently noticed some suspicious activity in the InTrade market for whether Hillary Clinton will be elected President, with someone bidding up her odds from about 25 to around 40 (currently hovering at 38). This just strikes as us too high, relative to her chances of even garnering the nomination (around 51). And when we saw this mis-pricing, we suggested that manipulation may be at play (see
Is there manipulation in the Hillary Clinton prediction market?
Is there manipulation in the Hillary Clinton…
Is there manipulation in the Hillary Clinton prediction market?
Both Eric Zitzewitz and I have recently noticed some suspicious activity in the InTrade market for whether Hillary Clinton will be elected President, with someone bidding up her odds from about 25 to around 40 (currently hovering at 38). This just strikes as us too high, relative to her chances of even garnering the nomination (around 51). And when we saw this mis-pricing, we suggested that manipulation may be at play (see
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