Overcoming Bias

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Incentives, Allies Cut Bias

www.overcomingbias.com

Incentives, Allies Cut Bias

Robin Hanson
Apr 3, 2009
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Incentives, Allies Cut Bias

www.overcomingbias.com

This paper reports the results of a series of experiments designed to test whether and to what extent individuals succumb to the conjunction fallacy. Using an experimental design of Kahneman and Tversky (1983), it finds that given mild incentives, the proportion of individuals who violate the conjunction principle is significantly lower than that reported by Kahneman and Tversky. Moreover, when subjects are allowed to consult with other subjects, these proportions fall dramatically, particularly when the size of the group rises from two to three. These findings cast serious doubts about the importance and robustness of such violations for the understanding of real-life economic decisions.

More here.  Hat tip to Dan Houser.

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Incentives, Allies Cut Bias

www.overcomingbias.com
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