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This is a blog on why we believe and do what we do, why we pretend otherwise, how we might do better, and what our descendants might do, if they don't all die.
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This Monday I’ll speak for 15 min on Prediction Engines at a Microsoft Faculty Summit. The summit is private, but selected talks and interviews will be streamed publicly. I’ll be in a public interview 13:30–14:00 PDT, right after Bill Gates’ keynote talk. My private talk session is also right after Gates speaks, but in a breakout session; I probably won’t meet him.
Added: video here.
I’m On After Bill Gates
You might want to drop a comment on how prediction markets could improve the effectiveness of philanthropy, and how you'd like to see one of the leading philanthropies pilot such a project. Gates is committing money to K-12 educational philanthropy - why not set up some prediction markets around the outcomes of some of his projects in order to learn more quickly which ones seem promising and which ones might need to be redesigned (based on predictions of lack of impact, for instance).