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Overcoming Bias Commenter's avatar

If I were attending I'd have two questions:

1. Is trading profit the best measure of information provided to help decision-making. If I am the only one with a crucial piece of information, I maximize my profit by trading in a way that impounds my information into price as slowly and incompletely as possible. If the goal is to reward people who provide information, rather than simply to get the best information aggregator, wouldn't it make more sense to use a different type of incentive in the market, or a different device (such as a delphi process)?

2. Are you assuming that the value of the incentive for prediction-market gains (however calculated) is very small relative to the incentive for better managerial decision-making and outcomes. If not, what unintended consequences should we worry about? For example, would managers conceal information from their colleagues in order to increase the trading value of their information, to the detriment of making decision-making?

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Overcoming Bias Commenter's avatar

Cool idea. I'd love to get it implemented. Distorted information flows within orgs bother me to no end.

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