Discussion about this post

User's avatar
Overcoming Bias Commenter's avatar

I just realized that stock markets and bond markets are prediction markets. I realize they are not the broadly general prediction markets, but since stocks and bonds are investments, not consumables, the decision to buy a stock or bond is always a prediction that it will pay off worth the price.

I realize this is a trivial point, but if I just realized it, perhaps some others reading this will benefit from seeing it written down here.

Expand full comment
Overcoming Bias Commenter's avatar

It seems to me that philosophers mostly study questions where averaging is not a viable strategy for reducing error; this might account for their relative lack of interest in correlations between errors.

But on the other hand, surely major philosophical errors can also cause correlations? If, for example, I believe that I can predict the future by looking at animal entrails, then averaging isn't going to help me recover (at least about statements about the future).

Expand full comment
10 more comments...

No posts