Discussion about this post

User's avatar
Overcoming Bias Commenter's avatar

So the answer could be making the prediction tools somehow anonymous? Surely then market competition will make them spread like fire..

Expand full comment
Overcoming Bias Commenter's avatar

Jeffrey Soreff raises a vital point. Hanson is talking about an instance of market failure.The assumption that humans are (or can be turned into) rational economic agents is deeply flawed. Who would want to trust anything really important like major decisions to the irrationalities of human market behavior?

The relevant question is whether there's a way to organize production to increase predictive accuracy. This, it seems to me, might involve *lowering* the incentives to predict correctly, since the incentives create self-serving biases. (This solution would not appear possible under capitalism.)

Expand full comment
10 more comments...

No posts