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Overcoming Bias Commenter's avatar

To my knowledge, the Microsoft prediction market was not controlled by management, nor was it widely gamed. Neither did it fail to work. It did, however, fail to catch on, and that is important.

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gwern's avatar

 > and whose reasoning would be well guarded information, and with investors that can buy a move, publish something influential, and then sell a move.

Yep. What's the problem? They reveal their information as they buy up shares of that move. That's the whole point!

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