This Saturday I’ll speak on the great filter at TEDx Limassol in Cyprus. Though I first wrote about the subject in 1996, this is actually the first time I’ve been invited to speak on it. It only took 19 years. I’ll post links here to slides and video when available.
The fact that people can't agree on the solution to the Sleeping Beauty Problem (http://en.wikipedia.org/wik... makes me suspect that our understanding of probability, or infinity, or ... something ... is lacking.
Which makes me take anthropic arguments like Katja's with a grain of salt.
Just watched the video; it's a great introduction to the topic.
But I think the anthropic argument can cut both ways - we are here and talking about it, therefore we exist. Since we must exist, the fact that we do exist doesn't tell us anything about the probability of our own existence (since a priori the probability is 1).
Although I am curious, why now? Was someone randomly digging through your archive of essays, or is there some special space-related event going on that is stimulating interest again?
I missed this comment until just now!
The video is now up: http://www.youtube.com/watc...
The page at that link is presently down.
I did; thanks.
The fact that people can't agree on the solution to the Sleeping Beauty Problem (http://en.wikipedia.org/wik... makes me suspect that our understanding of probability, or infinity, or ... something ... is lacking.
Which makes me take anthropic arguments like Katja's with a grain of salt.
You saying you like the words on my slides? Or the words I spoke?
I think you are referring to Katja's anthropic analysis. See it for more details: http://www.overcomingbias.c...
Just watched the video; it's a great introduction to the topic.
But I think the anthropic argument can cut both ways - we are here and talking about it, therefore we exist. Since we must exist, the fact that we do exist doesn't tell us anything about the probability of our own existence (since a priori the probability is 1).
Or am I confused?
Robin writes very well
For now Robin's talk is available at the following link at around 33mins into the video: http://www.tedxlimassol.com...
No, no, it should be "Horrifying news from new planet discoveries" (kinda true, actually)
Congrats, Robin. People may inquiry, what are the "Ten Ways the Coming Great Filter Will Impact Me" in the form of a listicle.. I urge you: resist.
/r/Futurology gets promoted to default subreddit, suddenly scores of people looking at cat videos accidentally into transhumanism
that's my guess
Very cool - I'm looking forward to the video.
Although I am curious, why now? Was someone randomly digging through your archive of essays, or is there some special space-related event going on that is stimulating interest again?
Congrats Robin!! Looking forward to the video.