The movie Doubt, now in theaters, offers an interesting chance for a disagreement case study. In the movie, Sister Beauvier accuses Father Flynn of a particular act, and viewers wonder: did he actually do it, and was she justified in her response? My wife and I disagreed quite a lot on Flynn's guilt – she's about at 95% confidence and I'm about at 40%. Apparently other viewers similarly diverge:
Those I spoke to after the movie were quite sure, maybe even certain, that Father Flynn was either guilty or innocent.
So what say the rest of you? And what is it about this situation that causes so much disagreement anyway? Don't read comments here unless you don't mind spoilers, which are fair game there. (If needed, let's ground this in terms of what is reasonable to estimate given everything the screenwriter knows.)
Added: It helps to show a base rate and then corrections for each new factor. For example, on average 5% are guilty, and someone with a shameful past is twice as likely to be guilty, for a final estimate of 10%.
Disagreeing About Doubt
100% guilty. Watch the movie: Flynn says Donald forgot his t-shirt that morning. No, he didn't; he was wearing it and you can see it in the shot of him sitting on the staircase after serving mass (you can see where the sleeve ends, underneath his shirt - his skin color makes it stand out even more). In fact, he already has his dress shirt on over it. No reason to take it off for any reason after that because mass is over
Later: Donald gets called to the rectory. He stands up (in class) and starts to adjust himself. He is NOT drunk, but he comes back drunk. When did he get drunk? Flynn says he called Donald to the rectory because he was caught earlier, by McGuinn. That was the FIRST time he drak altar wine, and it's the reason he's called to the rectory. Coming back drunk from the meeting would have been the SECOND time. So, Donald got drunk some time between leaving class and coming back. When? Are we to believe he stopped off in the sacristy and got drunk before he met with Father Flynn or, happy that he could remain an altar boy, decided to celebrate by getting drunk after? Neither. It was during.
Guilty as sin! although i appreciate the understanding in the chat , and taking a seat on the fence as it were ..but we know there is a answer to the question we all have, so why not have a conclusion??i believe his guilt, i cant say he is for sure , but accurately analyzing this film, the signs of his shame as well as fear are there in spades, now if i found out he was innocent, i blame the movie for misguiding me...it weighs heavy on his guilt. The woman was brave strong and trusted her self...she did not need him to be wrong because he exposed that on his own she pushed the boundaries as a test, and he failed and froze under scrutiny! now him being gay is a credible possibility, now understand any i mean any unhealthy behavior with the children is grounds for release in my opinion, she could be wrong about molestations, but her instincts were not wrong completely and without her sticking to her guns, who knows what the future holds for the kids there....the blond boy surely was weary of him. Innocent people don't need proof, they are simply disgusted at the false accusations ! you know it and i know it! He said to her that i can fight this, she confidently said go right ahead there is the phone, and what does he do? \sits there and sulks?? yea not looking good , also i give a A+ to her interrogation abilities. She did have her doubts! but under a few scary assumptions he froze guys!!! she risked her job as well, her fighting for the well being of the children and integrity of the school was worth the risk. What troubles him most is her suspensions and not his pain of being falsely accused. worried worried man