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If the world's best human AI researcher produces insights about AGI at the rate of H insights per week, how many insights per week should we expect from the first computer-based AI researcher that's superior? Even if intelligence insights aren't chunky, as Robin suggests, I wouldn't be surprised to see the first computer-based AI researcher that's better than the best humanity has to field producing 10H or 100H insights per week. This could be a very significant first mover advantage if we expect an unconstrained intelligent reasoning architecture, like an economy, to improve its capabilities in an exponential fashion.

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Overcoming Bias Commenter's avatar

@Adam A. Ford: Thanks!

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