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Stephen Diamond's avatar

But mostly we should just expect cohesion to decline from its initial extreme value, and that’s all a simple model needs.

Mere regression to the mean doesn't explain cycles! It explains that nothing lasts forever, but how does it explain cycles: cohesion and equality not only falls - but rises again!

I haven't read Turchin's book, so I'm grateful for Robin's recommendation about where to start. But even the short (excellent) essay in Aeon ( https://aeon.co/essays/hist... ) makes it obvious that Turchin provides evidence for the role of wealth inequality.

[As to Turchin's political sympathies, if he has any, I would point to his attributing the lessening of inequality in the 20s to two developments: progressive taxation and immigration restrictionism. If he's a leftist, he's not in the business of value advocacy; the main reforms that lessened inequality occurred under conservative administrations.]

[I just came across an essay by Scheidel: https://www.theatlantic.com... . His theme, that violence and catastrophe are great levelers, doesn't seem to comport with Robin's extract from Scheidel's book.]

Does unchecked inequality ineluctably lead to civil war? One doesn't need to read a book to know that it does not. But cyclical inequality is a different matter. Rising inequality is different from habitual inequality. It is the unfavorable change in the level of inequality that propels revolt.

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Overcoming Bias Commenter's avatar

Hello Mr. Hanson,

I just stumbled up on this blog and find it really great. I want to subscribe to the blogposts so that I get the posts in my inbox whenever there's a new post.

Unfortunately, the RSS feed shared on the top right of the home page isn't working. Can you please look into that? A simple "subscribe by email" option would help.

Thank you

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