That's a pretty niche market, which may well be served eventually. But first movers in a new market area should focus on the largest market niches to fill.

Expand full comment

Request: can you try to figure out how a prediction market for NFL general managers would work for the draft?

That is, we know empirically that the consensus draft wisdom is more likely to be correct than the work of any single general manager or team. This is a field RIPE for use of a prediction market.

The problem--well, one among a few--is that if general managers outsource their power to these markets, at least publicly, they lose status. Moreover, they have a high degree of interest in gaining a competitive advantage over other teams, and thereby would want to keep their findings confidential.

My best guess would be to set up an NFL-specific prediction market (and branded as such!) anonymously but publicly, with questions like "Will Dan Sarmold be selected to the Pro Bowl within three years of being drafted?" and so on. Then the GM could base their decisions on the market without anyone being the wiser.

Expand full comment