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zby's avatar

Just linking: https://twitter.com/gro_tse... - there is also a very good R0 treatment.

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clever trevor's avatar

I noted today an article by Bill Gates describing “researchers are confident they’ll have at least one (vaccine) ready within 18 months”.

In the same newspaper I read of rioting in Nairobi, TODAY, consequent to hunger associated with their COVID-19 lockdown.

Africa can not afford to wait 18 months for a vaccine. Africa can afford neither the time nor the eventual money. Africa could be facing an Armageddon.

Doubtless someone will correct me if wrong, but I’ll suggest *no* vaccine can as reliably induce immunity as the actual infection. So, in this sense, SARS-CoV-2 can be its own best “immuniser”.

A rapid variolation program in Africa could soon render immune enough young people to keep some semblance of economic activity proceeding. The variolated could be certified as such (after two weeks, or however long it ends up taking) and thereafter work in any capacity for which they are trained.

Variolation, once a safe-enough dose is found, would be perfectly cheap. Training in giving intradermal blebs is easy.

If someone has a better, faster, cheaper way of protecting Africa from utter calamity I am yet to hear of it

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