Discover more from Overcoming Bias
A central issue of this blog is: when exactly is it how important to emphasize truth, relative to other belief functions? New data suggest that truth is more important in bad times than in good, and when problems are big rather than small. Specifically, rose-colored marriage glasses help in good times, but hurt in bad times:
Individuals in new marriages were interviewed separately about their ongoing stressful experiences, and their own appraisals of those experiences were compared with those of the interviewers. … Spouses’ tendencies to form positively biased appraisals of their stressful experiences predicted fewer depressive symptoms over the subsequent 4 years among individuals judged to be facing relatively mild experiences but more depressive symptoms among individuals judged to be facing relatively severe experiences. … These effects were mediated by changes in those experiences, such that the interaction between the tendency to form positively biased appraisals of stressful experiences and the objectively rated severity of initial levels of those experiences directly predicted changes in those experiences, which in turn accounted for changes in depressive symptoms. (more)
Truth should also be especially important for situations that are novel relative to our evolved intuitions. The more our current situation differs from situations where our ancestors evolved (genetically or culturally) their intuitions about when to be truth-oriented, the more we risk by following such intuitions. And this seems especially likely for “futuristic” issues, with few genetic or cultural precedents.
Put them together and it is especially important for humanity to be truth-oriented regarding big bad evolutionarily-novel problems. Beware rose-colored glasses when turning a new corner to the future.
Beware Big Bad Novelties
I would be interested in an analysis of today's op-ed by Peter Diamond in terms of truth relative to other belief functions. Presumably the most serious economic downturn since the Great Depression does count as “hard times”.
New data suggest that truth is more important in bad times than in good, and when problems are big rather than small. I suppose it's good that new data suggests the exact same thing common sense does.
@Miley Cyrax
Things like affirmative action and illegal immigration don’t sound so bad when the economy’s good, but now that the economic landscape is bleak more people are starting to take notice.I don't know, it seems like illegal immigration was a big issue before 2008, it makes a good distraction for the Republicans so their voters don't notice when they ignore far more important issues. And I remember that several states restricted affirmative action before the financial crisis, California in 1996, Washington in 1998, Michigan in 2006. Nebraska banned it in 2008, which meant it had to have been on the ballot before the crisis broke.