Discussion about this post

User's avatar
dmytryl's avatar

Let's apply this to engineering for example. I need an electronic circuit for a task. You draw something and bet me it works, someone else draws something and writes competent looking circuit analysis (which you did not provide, which is indicative of you not actually having any reason to think that the circuit even works).

The bet can be seen as buying persuasiveness with money, and as such provides no guarantee that you even hold the belief.

And even if you could demonstrate that you actually hold the belief (e.g. one could infer that by observation), that is far less indicative of the belief being true, than you think it is.

Back to the circuit example, if you were a well known circuit designer renowned for rarely making mistakes, then your beliefs would have been informative, but then you wouldn't need to be making a bet to persuade. Conversely, if you aren't known for rarely making mistakes, then betting or no betting, your beliefs are not informative, and just muddle the waters (now I am not sure if you're betting because you can't analyse the circuit, or you know something I don't and you're trying to make some money from the bet).

Expand full comment
Overcoming Bias Commenter's avatar

I question the assumption that arguments are made to persuade others. Most people never convince anyone to change their beliefs and attitudes via an argument, and yet everyone keeps making them. Why?

Here's a relevant quote from Georg Christoph Lichtenberg: "I ceased in the year 1764 to believe that one can convince one's opponents with arguments printed in books. It is not to do that, therefore, that I have taken up my pen, but merely so as to annoy them, and to bestow strength and courage on those on our own side, and to make it known to the others that they have not convinced us"

Another reason is that everyone is taught to argue in school and many people express themselves via argument out of habit. "I like trees" is an idiotic thing to say, but "We need to act now to reduce CO2 emissions because CO2 causes global warming!" indicates you've read a book or two and believe in Science. Structuring your expressions of attitude and feeling as arguments is a cheap and easy way to signal that you're educated and thoughtful, and a certain type of person can't help themselves.

Expand full comment
49 more comments...

No posts