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Stephen Diamond's avatar

What's absent from what you can conclude using this method is actual likelihood. A better description of our knowledge--conceding your combination argument turns out to be convincing--could still be: we really have hardly the faintest idea. It's a contingent fact that for some endeavors like construction the best method is also a good method.

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Stephen Diamond's avatar

If I can extract a nontechnical understanding of the forgoing comments: best combinations are likely to give you not only your best single estimate but also to provide a gradient, so futures far from the best combination are less likely than futures near. (This would seem to provide the argument against multiple estimates--the world of possibilities isn't polycentric.)

But what shouldn't be ignored--that this method doesn't give you--is any indication regarding how good the estimate is. It's entirely possible--and a priori likely for estimates of a century based on past performance--that your very best estimate is a very poor estimate indeed. It could be that a better description of our knowledge--conceding your combination argument turns out to be convincing--could still be: we really have hardly the faintest idea about 100 years hence. This would all be consistent with your combination argument being very strong, that is, with your convincingly showed you have constructed the most reliable combination available.It could be that a better description of our knowledge--conceding your combination argument turns out to be convincing--we really have hardly the faintest idea. The best combination is in all likelihood a very weak combination, and it's a contingent fact that in some endeavors, like construction estimates, that the best estimate is also a good estimate.

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