Adam Ford & I on Great Filter
Adam Ford interviewed me again, this time on the Great Filter:
We have three main sources of info on existential risks (xrisks):
Inside View Analysis – where we try to use our best theories to reason about particular causal processes.
Earth Track Records – the empirical distribution of related events observed so far on Earth.
The Great Filter – inferences from the fact that the universe looks dead everywhere but here.
These sources are roughly equally informative. #2 suggests xrisks are low, even if high enough to deserve much effort to prevent them. I’d say that most variations on #1 suggest the same. However, #3 suggests xrisks could be very high, which should encourage more xrisk-mitigation efforts.
Ironically most xrisk efforts (of which I’m aware) focus on AI-risk, which can’t explain the great filter. Most analysis efforts also focus on #1, less on #2, and almost none on #3.
@Robin: The following link is a good one. Jason Wright at Penn State has written a paper on detecting Kardashev Type 3 Civs and has potential candidate galaxies where they might be found with potential evidence(!). Here is the original paper http://iopscience.iop.org/0...
and here is the new scientist article http://www.newscientist.com...
Wouldn't it turn itself into paperclips, at the end?
If we ever find the paperclip planet...attempt no landing there.