Open Thread

This is our monthly place to discuss related topics that have not appeared in recent posts.

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  • Zingram

    Alright you boring f****, I’ll kick this off with some uber stuff. No normal person can possibly comprehend that which follows…

    “Haterz gonna hate” <—- Good god, I hate it when my buds say that. Or "it is what it is". Uhhh thanks brah! You dialed me in! Otherwise, I could not have deduced such powerful logic!

    How about "it's okay". Usually it's never okay when some n00b says that. What is this, loser town? Hate dem sheets too.

    Nah, it ain't okay. Nah, it isn't what it is. Indeed, haterz gonna hate.

    Pwned.

    • http://entitledtoanopinion.wordpress.com TGGP

      “Haters gonna hate” is a statement intended to deflect responsibility for others’ negative opinions. It’s not me, it’s them. However, “It’s okay” seems true often enough.

      • oldoddjobs

        A thing is what it is, and not some other thing.

  • HM

    I believe we often introduce deliberate vagueness into (especially social) vagueness to ensure that things become known but not publicly known in the game theoretic sense.

    If I get to know that someone doesn’t want to meet me through a vague statement, the information is conveyed, but I might not know that they know that i know for example. This allows me to avoid comment on my rejection without looking weak.

    As you are very interested in getting clearer, and public, knowledge, do you think there is a value in opaque information to mitigate social conflicts?

    • http://entitledtoanopinion.wordpress.com TGGP

      Sounds like plausible deniability vs “common knowledge”. Pinker has discussed this.

  • http://juridicalcoherence.blogspot.com/ Stephen Diamond

    If anyone else is interested in how near-far theory applies to the writing process, I have another piece of the puzzle:

    “The new topic/stress principle: Topic is concrete, stress abstract”

    http://tinyurl.com/lrbsm2t

  • Guest

    Do you have any comments on this prediction market event?
    http://blog.predictious.com/2014/03/01/we-wont-be-adding-a-contract-on-the-assassination-of-mt-gox-ceo/

    Assume a market actually were made for you, and (for creativity points) also assume no free rider problems / enforcement problems.

    One idea I had would be to fake my own death and collect my own blood money. Any other ideas? I know Dr. H has ran directly into this assassination issue before.

  • JW Ogden

    I wonder how small of a firm can benefit from prediction markets. I like the idea and we have had some product and some pricing fails that could have been avoided with better predictions, but my company has only 12 employees and so I have not attempted implementation because I think with only 12 employees the result are likely to be spurious.

    • http://overcomingbias.com RobinHanson

      I wouldn’t worry about the accuracy of the results with 12 participants – I’ve done lab experiments with only 3 that did well. I’d worry more about overhead costs and whether you can more cheaply get people to be honest some other way.

  • Marc Geddes

    Breaking news at Newsweek , they’ve claimed to have finally located the reclusive creator of Bitcoin, ‘Satoshi Nakomoto’…. reporters have found an elderly, disheveled Japanese-American man under the name ‘Dorian Nakamoto’ living in California. He denies all involvement and just wanted a free lunch. YouTube video here:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QswzUqcSb2c

    The plot thickened when, after not being heard from for years, the real ‘Satoshi Nakomoto’ definitely posted to the internet on his page at the p2p foundation, the following statement:

    “I am not Dorian Nakamoto.”

    The real ‘Nakamoto’ holds about $US 400 million worth of Bitcoins at present.

  • Douglas Knight

    Robin, what do you think of Thomas Gold’s “deep hot biosphere” theory of the origin of life?

  • Tim

    A. Sandberg’s Monte Carlo estimation on WBE arrival. Cumulative probability can rapidly increase (i.e. 0.1 to 0.4 in 20 years). Neuroscience/modelling scenarios can occur suddenly.

  • http://www.gwern.net/ gwern