Wow. Under "politics," next to the "US Pres. Decisions" section I announced Friday, Intrade.com now has an "Impact of next Pres." section, with markets for conditional estimates of these four parameters:
- eco growth to be at least 2.5% over the next three years,
- unemployment rate to be less than 5% at end of 2011,
- number of violent crimes in 2010 to be less than in 2007, and
- Democrats to control House of Rep’s after 2010 mid-terms,
given each of these seven candidates: Clinton, Obama, Edwards, McCain, Giuliani, Huckabee, Romney. Cool! I don’t see any orders in these markets yet though, so it is hard to tell how much liquidity they will have.
Added: This is a research initiative of the University of Westminster.