For the top four US presidential candidates from each party, InTrade.com gives these chances of nomination, becoming president, and the implied conditional chance of winning if nominated:
Al Gore’s conditional chances seem way out of line to me. And Ron Paul’s conditional chances are suspiciously large compared to the other Republicans.
Added: What good are estimates that could be better? I know of no other source of daily-updated estimates with even a similar accuracy. And here anyone can be paid to fix any errors they find.
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