Tag Archives: Sims

Sim Argument Confidence

Nick Bostrom once argued that you must choose between three options re the possibility that you are now actually living in and experiencing a simulation created by future folks to explore their past: (A) its true, you are most likely a sim person living in a sim, either of this sort or another, (B) future folk will never be able to do this, because it just isn’t possible, they die first, or they never get rich and able enough, or (C) future folk can do this, but they do not choose to do it much, so that most people experiencing a world like yours are real humans now, not future sim people.

This argument seems very solid to me: future folks either do it, can’t do it, or choose not to. If you ask folks to pick from these options you get a simple pattern of responses:

Here we see 40% in denial, hoping for another option, and the others about equally divided among the three options. But if you ask people to estimate the chances of each option, a different picture emerges. Lognormal distributions (which ignore the fact that chances can’t exceed 100%) are decent fits to these distributions, and here are their medians:

So when we look at the people who are most confident that each option is wrong, we see a very different picture. Their strongest confidence, by far, is that they can’t possibly be living in a sim, and their weakest confidence, by a large margin, is that the future will be able to create sims. So if we go by confidence, poll respondents’ favored answer is that the future will either die soon or never grow beyond limited abilities, or that sims are just impossible.

My answer is that the future mostly won’t choose to sim us:

I doubt I’m living in a simulation, because I doubt the future is that interested in simulating us; we spend very little time today doing any sort of simulation of typical farming or forager-era folks, for example. (More)

If our descendants become better adapted to their new environment, they are likely to evolve to become rather different from us, so that they spend much less of their income on sim-like stories and games, and what sims they do like should be overwhelmingly of creatures much like them, which we just aren’t. Furthermore, if such creatures have near subsistence income, and if a fully conscious sim creature costs nearly as much to support as future creatures cost, entertainment sims containing fully conscious folks should be rather rare. (More)

If we look at all the ways that we today try to simulate our past, such as in stories and games, our interest in sims of particular historical places and times fades quickly with our cultural distance from them, and especially with declining influence over our culture. We are especially interested in Ancient Greece, Rome, China, and Egypt, because those places were most like us and most influenced us. But even so, we consume very few stories and games about those eras. And regarding all the other ancient cultures even less connected to us, we show far less interest.

As we look back further in time, we can track decline in both world population, and in our interest in stories and games about those eras. During the farming era population declined by about a factor of two every millennium, but it seems to me that our interest in stories and games of those eras declines much faster. There’s far less than half as much interest in 500AD than in 1500AD, and that fact continues for each 1000 year step backward.

So even if future folk make many sims of their ancestors, people like us probably aren’t often included. Unless perhaps we happen to be especially interesting.

GD Star Rating
loading...
Tagged as: , ,

New Yorker on Age of Em

Joshua Rothman, in The New Yorker, on Age of Em:

It may be, too, that we should look with some trepidation toward the transitional period—that strange era in which our real-world ways will be disrupted by the introduction of new and bizarre simulated life forms. In “The Age of Em,” a nonfiction work of social-science speculation published earlier this year, the economist and futurist Robin Hanson describes a time in which researchers haven’t yet cracked artificial intelligence but have learned to copy themselves into their computers, creating “ems,” or emulated people, who quickly come to outnumber the real ones. Unlike Bostrom, who supposes that our descendants will create simulated worlds for curiosity’s sake, Hanson sees the business case for simulating people: instead of struggling to find a team of programmers, a company will be able to hire a single, brilliant em and then replicate her a million times. An enterprising em might gladly replicate herself to work many jobs at once; after she completes a job, a copied em might choose to delete herself, or “end.” (An em contemplating ending won’t ask “Do I want to die?,” Hanson writes, since other copies will live on; instead, she’ll ask, “Do I want to remember this?”) An em might be copied right after a vacation, so that whenever she is pasted into the simulated workplace, she is cheerful, rested, and ready to work. She might also be run on computer hardware that is more powerful than a human brain, and so think (and live) at a speed millions or even trillions of times faster than an ordinary human being.

Hanson doesn’t think that ems must necessarily live unhappy lives. On the contrary, they may thrive, fall in love, and find fulfillment in their competitive, flexible, high-speed world. Non-simulated people, meanwhile, may retire on the proceeds from their investments in the accelerated and increasingly autonomous em economy—a pleasant vantage point from which to observe the twilight of non-emulated civilization. Many people have imagined that technology will free us from the burden of work; if Hanson is right, that freedom could come through the virtualization of the human race.

This was in an article about the simulation argument. Two years ago I compared em and sim conversations, noting that in both cases many discuss using them as fiction settings, the chances that they are true, clues for inferring if they are true, and what they imply for identity, consciousness, physics, etc. But few discuss social consequences, such as how to live in a simulation or what a em world is like socially.

Oddly to me, Rothman didn’t go that direction; he didn’t even mention my (or anyone’s) analysis of how to live in a simulation.

Oh, and running trillions of times faster than humans is quite a bit faster than I’ve guessed; I’ve said maybe millions of times faster.

GD Star Rating
loading...
Tagged as: ,