Tag Archives: Ems

We Colonize The Sun First

Space is romantic; most people are overly obsessed with space in their view of the future. Even so, these remain valid questions:

  1. When will off-Earth economy be larger than the on-Earth?
  2. Where in the solar system will that off-Earth economy be then?

Here is a poll I just did on this last question:

(“Closer” here really means ease of transport, not spatial distance.)

On (1), for many centuries the economics gains from clumping have been very important, and we’ve only spend a few percent of income on energy (and cooling) and raw materials. Also, human bodies are fragile and designed for Earth, making space quite expensive for humans. As long as all these conditions remain, economic activity beyond Earth will remain a small fraction of our total economy.

However, eventually ems or other kinds of human level robots will appear and quickly come to dominate the economy. Space is much easier for them. And eventually, continued (exponential) growth will cause Earth to run out of stuff. At recent rates of growth probably not for at least several centuries, but it will happen.

On (2), human level robots probably appear before Earth runs out of stuff. So even though most science fiction looks at where humans would want to be off Earth, to think about this point in time you should be thinking instead about robots; where will robots want to be? Robots can do fine in a much wider range of physical environments. So ask less which locations are comfortable and safe for robots, and ask more where is there useful stuff to attract them.

Clumping will probably remain important; the big question is how important. The more important is clumping, the longer that the off-Earth economy will be concentrated near Earth, even when other locations are much more attractive in other ways.

Since the main reason to leave Earth at this point in time is that it is running out of energy (and cooling) and raw materials, the key attractions of other locations in the Solar System, aside from nearness to Earth, is their abundance of energy (and cooling) and raw materials.

Robots running reversible computing hardware should spend about as much on making their hardware as they do on the energy (and cooling) to run it. And the sum of these expenses should be a big fraction of an em or other robot economy. So from this point of view, both energy and raw materials are important, and about equally important.

However, it seems to me that planet Earth has a lot more raw materials than it does energy. Our planet is huge; its energy is more limited. And raw materials can be recycled, while energy cannot. So my guess is that Earth will run out of energy long before it runs out of raw materials. Thus the main attraction of non-Earth locations, besides nearness to Earth, will be energy (and cooling). And for energy, the overwhelmingly obvious location is the Sun. Which has the vast majority of mass as well, and is also on average located “closer” to most things.

Yes, the sun is very hot, and while at some cost of refrigeration robots could live in or on the Sun itself, it is probably cheaper to live a bit further away, where materials are stable without refrigeration. But that would still be a lot closer to the Sun than to anything else. Dense robot cities on Earth would have already pushed to find computer hardware that can function efficiently at high temperatures. Being near the Sun makes it a lot easier to collect the Sun’s energy without paying extra energy transport costs. And once others are there, they all gain economies of clumping by being together.

Hydrogen and helium are plentiful in the Sun, and for other elements it is probably cheaper to transport mass to the Sun than to transport energy away from it. Probably mostly from Mercury for a long while. Some say computers are more efficient when run at low temperatures, but I don’t see that. So it seems to me that once our descendants go beyond merely clumping around Earth to be near activity there, the main place they will want to go is near the Sun.

Oddly, though space colonization is a hugely popular topic in science fiction, I can’t find examples of stories set in this scenario, of most activity cramming close to the Sun. Some stories mention energy collection happening there, but rarely much other activity, and the story never happens among dense Sun-near activity. As in the poll results above, most stories focus on activity moving in the other direction, away from the Sun. Oh there are a few stories about colonies on Mercury, and of scientific or military visits to the Sun. But not the Sun as the main place that our descendants hang out near after Earth.

In fact, “colonizing the sun” is a well known example of a crazy impossible idea, considered worthy of ridicule. (“Oh, we’ll do it at night, when its cooler.”) So the actual most likely scenario, according to my analysis, is also the one thought the most crazy, and never the setting of stories. Weird.

Added 9July: Some tell me that atoms for fusion can be gained more easily from large gas giant planets than from the Sun, at least until those run out, and that they expect a long period when that is the cheapest way to make energy. For the period when those atoms, or that energy, is transported to near Earth, that is consistent with what I’ve said above.

But if the economy is pushed to move first en mass closer to those gas giants to avoid transport costs of energy or atoms, that would contradict my claim above that the Sun is the first place our descendants move after Earth. Note that we are now entering an era of mass solar energy, which will advance that tech more than fusion tech.

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How To Not Die (Soon)

You don’t want to die. If you heard that an asteroid would soon destroy a vast area around your home, you’d pay great costs to help you and your loved ones try to move. Even if you’d probably fail, even of most of your loved ones might not make it, and even if success meant adapting to a strange world far from home. If that’s not you, then this post isn’t for you.

Okay, you think you don’t want to die. But what exactly does that mean?

“You” are the time sequence of mental states that results from a certain large signal processing system: your “brain.” Each small part in this system takes signals in from other parts, changes its local state in response, and then sends signals out to other parts. At the border of this system, signals come in from “sensors”, e.g., eyes, and are sent out to “actuators”, e.g., hands.

You have differing mental states when these signals are different, and you live only as long as these signals keep moving. As best we can tell, from all the evidence we’ve ever seen, when these signals stop, you stop. When they stop for good, you die. As your brain is made out of completely ordinary materials undergoing quite well understood physical processes, all that’s left to be you is the pattern of your brain signals. That’s you; when that stops, you stop. (So yes, patterns feel.) Continue reading "How To Not Die (Soon)" »

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Graziano on a World of Uploaded Minds

Princeton neuroscience professor Michael Graziano has a new book out today, Rethinking Consciousness: A Scientific Theory of Subjective Experience, which is mostly on his account of consciousness. On Sunday he published a related WSJ article, on his last book chapter (out of 9), which is on how society would change with uploads (= ems). And while most of his observations about an upload/em world are reasonable points, he misses so many other big changes that his picture ends up badly distorted.

Those reasonable points by Graziano (even when I don’t agree):

  1. Uploads are inevitable, but not soon. “I’d guess at least 100 years if not substantially more”.
  2. We will soon have good/cheap enough computers, brain cell models, body emulations, and virtual reality environments.
  3. We are far from good/cheap enough scans at sufficient scale and resolution.
  4. To survive system redesigns & upgrades, uploads need long lasting computer file & emulation system formats.
  5. The very first uploads may suffer due to imperfections in the emulation process.
  6. “mind uploading … may have some major risks, but I think it also has great possibility. … mind uploading will be a cultural and ethical mess that sorts itself out eventually.”
  7. Long-lived uploads would eventually run out of memory, and so either must add memory or use a rolling memory window.
  8. “We” must decide what rights uploads and their copies get.
  9. “We” must decide which humans are uploaded.
  10. Humans will ask themselves if an upload of them is really them.
  11. Uploads and their still-living human originals can have social conflicts over friends, jobs, etc.
  12. You can be bolder in virtual reality as you can’t get physically hurt there.
  13. Uploads never need to go to the bathroom.
  14. Things like tastes and breathing may not feel exactly the same for uploads
  15. Uploads can continue to do jobs and have social relations with humans.
  16. Instead of “dystopian” policies that insist on only one version of each human at a time, it seems better if “the system remains chaotic and freewheeling, with no restrictions on the number of versions of each person, causing a societal revolution in our concept of identity and individuality.”
  17. The ability to prevent people from being uploaded might be a great power, if that were the only route to immortality.
  18. Immortal uploads would help us to preserve wisdom, knowledge and culture, but they’d also slow down cultural and linguistic change.
  19. Immortality allows bad leaders to more easily retrain control, in both politics and academia.
  20. As uploads have more life experience, “the balance of power and culture would shift rapidly to the [upload] world.”
  21. Uploads could more easily travel in space, and could slow down their minds during boring travel periods.
  22. Eventually it may be possible for uploads to communicate via more direct mind reading.

So, the picture Graziano paints is of an inter-mixed world of humans and uploads, sharing culture and doing jobs for and having social relations with each other. The main difference is that the uploads are immortal, and therefore older, wiser, more powerful, and more conservative: Continue reading "Graziano on a World of Uploaded Minds" »

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Why Age of Em Will Happen

In some technology competitions, winners dominate strongly. For example, while gravel may cover a lot of roads if we count by surface area, if we weigh by vehicle miles traveled then asphalt strongly dominates as a road material. Also, while some buildings are cooled via fans and very thick walls, the vast majority of buildings in rich and hot places use air-conditioning. In addition, current versions of software systems also tend to dominate over old older versions. (E.g., Windows 10 over Windows 8.)

However, in many other technology competitions, older technologies remain widely used over long periods. Cities were invented ten thousand years ago, yet today only about half of the population lives in them. Cars, trains, boats, and planes have taken over much transportation, yet we still do plenty of walking. Steel has replaced wood in many structures, yet wood is still widely used. Fur, wool, and cotton aren’t used as often as they once were, but they are still quite common as clothing materials. E-books are now quite popular, but paper books sales are still growing.

Whether or not an old tech still retains wide areas of substantial use depends on the average advantage of the new tech, relative to the variation of that advantage across the environments where these techs are used, and the variation within each tech category. All else equal, the wider the range of environments, and the more diverse is each tech category, the longer that old tech should remain in wide use.

For example, compare the set of techs that start with the letter A (like asphalt) to the set that start with the letter G (like gravel). As these are relatively arbitrary sets that do not “cut nature at its joints”, there is wide diversity within each category, and each set is all applied to a wide range of environments. This makes it quite unlikely that one of these sets will strongly dominate the other.

Note that techs that tend to dominate strongly, like asphalt, air-conditioning, and new software versions, more often appear as a lumpy change, e.g., all at once, rather than via a slow accumulation of many changes. That is, they more often result from one or a few key innovations, and have some simple essential commonality. In contrast, techs that have more internal variety and structure tend more to result from the accumulation of more smaller innovations.

Now consider the competition between humans and computers for mental work. Today human brains earn more than half of world income, far more than the costs of computer hardware and software. But over time, artificial hardware and software have been improving, and slowly commanding larger fractions. Eventually this could become a majority. And a key question is then: how quickly might computers come to dominate overwhelmingly, doing virtually all mental work?

On the one hand, the ranges here are truly enormous. We are talking about all mental work, which covers a very wide of environments. And not only do humans vary widely in abilities and inclinations, but computer systems seem to encompass an even wider range of designs and approaches. And many of these are quite complex systems. These facts together suggest that the older tech of human brains could last quite a long time (relative of course to relevant timescales) after computers came to do the majority of tasks (weighted by income), and that the change over that period could be relatively gradual.

For an analogy, consider the space of all possible non-mental work. While machines have surely been displacing humans for a long time in this area, we still do many important tasks “by hand”, and overall change has been pretty steady for a long time period. This change looked nothing like a single “general” machine taking over all the non-mental tasks all at once.

On the other hand, human minds are today stuck in old bio hardware that isn’t improving much, while artificial computer hardware has long been improving rapidly. Both these states, of hardware being stuck and improving fast, have been relatively uniform within each category and across environments. As a result, this hardware advantage might plausibly overwhelm software variety to make humans quickly lose most everywhere.

However, eventually brain emulations (i.e. “ems”) should be possible, after which artificial software would no longer have a hardware advantage over brain software; they would both have access to the same hardware. (As ems are an all-or-nothing tech that quite closely substitutes for humans and yet can have a huge hardware advantage, ems should displace most all humans over a short period.) At that point, the broad variety of mental task environments, and of approaches to both artificial and em software, suggests that ems many well stay competitive on many job tasks, and that this status might last a long time, with change being gradual.

Note also that as ems should soon become much cheaper than humans, the introduction of ems should initially cause a big reversion, wherein ems take back many of the mental job tasks that humans had recently lost to computers.

In January I posted a theoretical account that adds to this expectation. It explains why we should expect brain software to be a marvel of integration and abstraction, relative to the stronger reliance on modularity that we see in artificial software, a reliance that allows those systems to be smaller and faster built, but also causes them to rot faster. This account suggests that for a long time it would take unrealistically large investments for artificial software to learn to be as good as brain software on the tasks where brains excel.

A contrary view often expressed is that at some point someone will “invent” AGI (= Artificial General Intelligence). Not that society will eventually have broadly capable and thus general systems as a result of the world economy slowly collecting many specific tools and abilities over a long time. But that instead a particular research team somewhere will discover one or a few key insights that allow that team to quickly create a system that can do most all mental tasks much better than all the other systems, both human and artificial, in the world at that moment. This insight might quickly spread to other teams, or it might be hoarded to give this team great relative power.

Yes, under this sort of scenario it becomes more plausible that artificial software will either quickly displace humans on most all jobs, or do the same to ems if they exist at the time. But it is this scenario that I have repeatedly argued is pretty crazy. (Not impossible, but crazy enough that only a small minority should assume or explore it.) While the lumpiness of innovation that we’ve seen so far in computer science has been modest and not out of line with most other research fields, this crazy view postulates an enormously lumpy innovation, far out of line with anything we’ve seen in a long while. We have no good reason to believe that such a thing is at all likely.

If we presume that no one team will ever invent AGI, it becomes far more plausible that there will still be plenty of jobs tasks for ems to do, whenever ems show up. Even if working ems only collect 10% of world income soon after ems appear, the scenario I laid out in my book Age of Em is still pretty relevant. That scenario is actually pretty robust to such variations. As a result of thinking about these considerations, I’m now much more confident that the Age of Em will happen.

In Age of Em, I said:

Conditional on my key assumptions, I expect at least 30 percent of future situations to be usefully informed by my analysis. Unconditionally, I expect at least 5 percent.

I now estimate an unconditional 80% chance of it being a useful guide, and so will happily take bets based on a 50-50 chance estimate. My claim is something like:

Within the first D econ doublings after ems are as cheap as the median human worker, there will be a period where >X% of world income is paid for em work. And during that period Age of Em will be a useful guide to that world.

Note that this analysis suggests that while the arrival of ems might cause a relatively sudden and disruptive transition, the improvement of other artificial software would likely be more gradual. While overall rates of growth and change should increase as a larger fraction of the means of production comes to be made in factories, the risk is low of a sudden AI advance relative to that overall rate of change. Those concerned about risks caused by AI changes can more reasonably wait until we see clearer signs of problems.

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Stephenson’s Em Fantasy

Neal Stephenson’s Snow Crash (’92) and Diamond Age (’95) were once some of my favorite science fiction novels. And his Anathem (’08) is the very favorite of a friend. So hearing that his new book Fall; or, Dodge in Hell (’19) is about ems, I had to read it. And given that I’m author of Age of Em and care much for science fiction realism, I had to evaluate this story in those terms. (Other reviews don’t seem to care: 1 2 3 4 5)

Alas, in terms of em realism, this book disappoints. To explain, I’m going to have to give spoilers; you are warned. Continue reading "Stephenson’s Em Fantasy" »

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Progeny Probs: Souls, Ems, Quantum

Consider three kinds of ancestry trees: 1) souls of some odd human mothers, 2) ems and their copies, and 3) splitting quantum worlds. In each kind of tree, agents can ask themselves, “Which future version of me will I become?”

SOULS  First, let’s start with some odd human mothers. A single uber-mother can give rise to a large tree of descendants via the mother relation. Each branch in the tree is a single person. The leaves of this tree are branches that lead to no more branches. In this case, leaves are either men, or they are women who never had children. When a mother looks back on her history, she sees a single chain of branches from the uber-mother root of the tree to her. All of those branches are mothers who had at least one child.

Now here is the odd part: imagine that some mothers see their personal historical chain as describing a singular soul being passed down through the generations. They believe that souls can be transferred but not created, and so that when a mother has more than one child, at most one of those children gets a soul.

Yes, this is an odd perspective to have regarding souls, but bear with me. Such an odd mother might wonder which one of her children will inherit her soul. Her beliefs about the answer to this question, and about other facts about this child, might be expressed in a subjective probability distribution. I will call such a distribution a “progeny prob”.

EMS  Second, let’s consider ems, the subject of my book The Age of Em: Work, Love, and Life when Robots Rule the Earth. Ems don’t yet exist, but they might in the future. Each em is an emulation of a particular human brain, and it acts just like that human would in the same subjective situation, even though it actually runs on an artificial computer. Each em is part of an ancestry tree that starts with a root that resulted from scanning a particular human brain.

This em tree branches when copies are made of individual ems, and the leaves of this tree are copies that are erased. Ems vary in many ways, such as in how much wealth they own, how fast their minds run relative to humans, and how long they live before they end or next split into copies. Split events also differ, such as re how many copies are made, what social role each copy is planned to fill, and which copies get what part of the original’s wealth or friends.

An em who looks toward its next future split, and foresees a resulting set of copies, may ask themselves “Which one of those copies will I be?” Of course they will actually become all of those copies. But as human minds never evolved to anticipate splitting, ems may find it hard to think that way. The fact that ems remember only one chain of branches in the past can lead them to think in terms of continuing on in only one future branch. Em “progeny prob” beliefs about who they will become can also include predictions about life details of that copy, such as wealth or speed. These beliefs can also be conditional on particular plans made for this split, such as which copies plan to take which jobs.

QUANTUM  Third, let’s consider quantum states, as seen from the many worlds perspective. We start with a large system of interest, a system that can include observers like humans and ems. This system begins in some “root” quantum state, and afterward experiences many “decoherence events”, with each such event aligned to a particular key parameter, like the spatial location of a particular atom. Soon after each such decoherence event, the total system state typically becomes closely approximated by a weighted sum of component states. Each component state is associated with a different value of the key parameter. Each subsystem of such a component state, including subsystems that describe the mental states of observers, have states that match this key parameter value. For example, if these observers “measured” the location of an atom, then each observer would have a mental state corresponding to their having observed the same particular location. Continue reading "Progeny Probs: Souls, Ems, Quantum" »

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How Does Brain Code Differ?

The Question

We humans have been writing “code” for many decades now, and as “software eats the world” we will write a lot more. In addition, we can also think of the structures within each human brain as “code”, code that will also shape the future.

Today the code in our heads (and bodies) is stuck there, but eventually we will find ways to move this code to artificial hardware. At which point we can create the world of brain emulations that is the subject of my first book, Age of Em. From that point on, these two categories of code, and their descendant variations, will have near equal access to artificial hardware, and so will compete on relatively equal terms to take on many code roles. System designers will have to choose which kind of code to use to control each particular system.

When designers choose between different types of code, they must ask themselves: which kinds of code are more cost-effective in which kinds of applications? In a competitive future world, the answer to this question may be the main factor that decides the fraction of resources devoted to running human-like minds. So to help us envision such a competitive future, we should also ask: where will different kinds of code work better? (Yes, non-competitive futures may be possible, but harder to arrange than many imagine.)

To think about which kinds of code win where, we need a basic theory that explains their key fundamental differences. You might have thought that much has been written on this, but alas I can’t find much. I do sometimes come across people who think it obvious that human brain code can’t possibly compete well anywhere, though they rarely explain their reasoning much. As this claim isn’t obvious to me, I’ve been trying to think about this key question of which kinds of code wins where. In the following, I’ll outline what I’ve come up with. But I still hope someone will point me to useful analyses that I’ve missed.

In the following, I will first summarize a few simple differences between human brain code and other code, then offer a deeper account of these differences, then suggest an empirical test of this account, and finally consider what these differences suggest for which kinds of code will be more cost-effective where. Continue reading "How Does Brain Code Differ?" »

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Avoiding Blame By Preventing Life

If morality is basically a package of norms, and if norms are systems for making people behave, then each individual’s main moral priority becomes: to avoid blame. While the norm system may be designed to on average produce good outcomes, when that system breaks then each individual has only weak incentives to fix it. They mainly seek to avoid blame according to the current broken system. In this post I’ll discuss an especially disturbing example, via a series of four hypothetical scenarios.

1. First, imagine we had a tech that could turn ordinary humans into productive zombies. Such zombies can still do most jobs effectively, but they no longer have feelings or an inner life, and from the outside they also seem dead inside, lacking passion, humor, and liveliness. Imagine that someone proposed to use this tech on a substantial fraction of the human population. That is, they propose to zombify those who do jobs that others see as boring, routine, and low status, like collecting garbage, cleaning bedpans, or sweeping floors. As in this scenario living people would be turned into dead zombies, this proposal would probably be widely seen as genocide, and soundly rejected.

2. Second, imagine someone else proposes the following variation: when a new child of a parent seems likely enough to grow up to take such a low status job, this zombie tech is applied very early to the fetus. So no non-zombie humans are killed, they are just prevented from existing. Zombie kids are able to learn and eventually learn to do those low status. Thus technically this is not genocide, though it could be seen as the extermination of a class. And many parents would suffer from losing their chance to raise lively humans. Whoever proposed all this is probably considered evil, and their proposal rejected.

3. Third, imagine combining this proposal with another tech that can reliably induce identical twins. This will allow the creation of extra zombie kids. That is, each birth to low status parents is now of identical twins, one of which is an ordinary kid, and the other is a zombie kid. If parent’s don’t want to raise zombie kids, some other organization will take over that task. So now the parents get to have all their usual lively kids, and the world gains a bunch of extra zombie kids who grow up to do low status jobs. Some may support this proposal, but surely many others will find it creepy. I expect that it would be pretty hard to create a political consensus to support this proposal.

While in the first scenario people were killed, and in the second scenario parents were deprived, this third scenario is designed to take away these problems. But this third proposal still has two remaining problems. First, if we have a choice between creating an empty zombie and a living feeling person who finds their life worth living, this second option seems to result in a better world. Which argues against zombies. Second, if zombies seem like monsters, supporters of this proposal might might be blamed for creating monsters. And as the zombies look a lot like humans, many will see you as a bad person if you seem inclined to or capable of treating them badly. It looks bad to be willing to create a lower class, and to treat them like a disrespected lower class, if that lower class looks a lot like humans. So by supporting this third proposal, you risk being blamed.

4. My fourth and last scenario is designed to split apart these two problems with the third scenario, to make you choose which problem you care more about. Imagine that robots are going to take over most all human jobs, but that we have a choice about which kind of robot they are. We could choose human-like robots, who act lively with passion and humor, and who inside have feelings and an inner life. Or we could choose machine-like robots, who are empty inside and also look empty on the outside, without passion, humor, etc.

If you are focused on creating a better world, you’ll probably prefer the human-like robots, as that which choice results in more creatures who find their lives worth living. But if you are focused on avoiding blame, you’ll probably prefer the machine-like robots, as few will blame you for for that choice. In that choice the creatures you create look so little like humans that few will blame you for creating such creatures, or for treating them badly.

I recently ran a 24 hour poll on Twitter about this choice, a poll to which 700 people responded. Of those who make a choice, 77% picked the machine-like robots:

Maybe my Twitter followers are unusual, but I doubt that a majority of a more representative poll would pick the human-like option. Instead, I think most people prefer the option that avoids personal blame, even if it makes for a worse world.

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Today, Ems Seem Unnatural

The main objections to “test tube babies” weren’t about the consequences for mothers or babies, they were about doing something “unnatural”:

Given the number of babies that have now been conceived through IVF — more than 4 million of them at last count — it’s easy to forget how controversial the procedure was during the time when, medically and culturally, it was new. … They weren’t entirely sure how IVF was different from cloning, or from the “ethereal conception” that was artificial insemination. They balked at the notion of “assembly-line fetuses grown in test tubes.” … For many, IVF smacked of a moral overstep — or at least of a potential one. … James Watson publicly decried the procedure, telling a Congressional committee in 1974 that … “All hell will break loose, politically and morally, all over the world.” (more)

Similarly, for most ordinary people, the problem with ems isn’t that the scanning process might kill the original human, or that the em might be an unconscious zombie due to their new hardware not supporting consciousness. In fact, people more averse to death have fewer objections to ems, as they see ems as a way to avoid death. The main objections to ems are just that ems seem “unnatural”:

In four studies (including pilot) with a total of 952 participants, it was shown that biological and cultural cognitive factors help to determine how strongly people condemn mind upload. … Participants read a story about a scientist who successfully transfers his consciousness (uploads his mind) onto a computer. … In the story, the scientist injects himself with nano-machines that enter his brain and substitute his neurons one-by-one. After a neuron has been substituted, the functioning of that neuron is copied (uploaded) on a computer; and after each neuron has been copied/uploaded the nano-machines shut down, and the scientist’s body falls on the ground completely limp. Finally, the scientist wakes up inside the computer.

The following variations made NO difference:

[In Study 1] we modified our original vignette by changing the target of mind upload to be either (1) a computer, (2) an android body, (3) a chimpanzee, or (4) an artificial brain. …

[In Study 2] we changed the story in a manner that the scientist merely ingests the nano-machines in a capsule form. Furthermore, we used a 2 × 2 experimental set-up to investigate whether the body dying on a physical level [heart stops or the brain stops] impacts the condemnation of the scientist’s actions. We also investigated whether giving participants information on how the transformation feels for the scientist once he is in the new platform has an impact on the results.

What did matter:

People who value purity norms and have higher sexual disgust sensitivity are more inclined to condemn mind upload. Furthermore, people who are anxious about death and condemn suicidal acts were more accepting of mind upload. Finally, higher science fiction literacy and/or hobbyism strongly predicted approval of mind upload. Several possible confounding factors were ruled out, including personality, values, individual tendencies towards rationality, and theory of mind capacities. (paper; summary; HT Stefan Schubert)

As with IVF, once ems are commonplace they will probably also come to seem less unnatural; strange never-before-seen possibilities evoke more fear and disgust than common things, unless those common things seem directly problematic.

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Age of Em Paperback

Today is the official U.S. release date for the paperback version of my first book The Age of Em: Work, Love, and Life when Robots Rule the Earth. (U.K. version came out a month ago.) Here is the new preface:

I picked this book topic so it could draw me in, and I would finish. And that worked: I developed an obsession that lasted for years. But once I delivered the “final” version to my publisher on its assigned date, I found that my obsession continued. So I collected a long file of notes on possible additions. And when the time came that a paperback edition was possible, I grabbed my chance. As with the hardback edition, I had many ideas for changes that might make my dense semi-encyclopedia easier for readers to enjoy. But my core obsession again won out: to show that detailed analysis of future scenarios is possible, by showing just how many reasonable conclusions one can draw about this scenario.

Also, as this book did better than I had a right to expect, I wondered: will this be my best book ever? If so, why not make it the best it can be? The result is the book you now hold. It has over 42% more citations, and 18% more words, but it is only a bit easier to read. And now I must wonder: can my obsession stop now, pretty please?

Many are disappointed that I do not more directly declare if I love or hate the em world. But I fear that such a declaration gives an excuse to dismiss all this; critics could say I bias my analysis in order to get my desired value conclusions. I’ve given over 100 talks on this book, and never once has my audience failed to engage value issues. I remain confident that such issues will not be neglected, even if I remain quiet.

These are the only new sections in the paperback: Anthropomorphize, Motivation, Slavery, Foom, After Ems. (I previewed two of them here & here.)  I’ll make these two claims for my book:

  1. There’s at least a 5% chance that my analysis will usefully inform the real future, i.e., that something like brain emulations are actually the first kind of human-level machine intelligence, and my analysis is mostly right on what happens then. If it is worth having twenty books on the future, it is worth having a book with a good analysis of a 5% scenario.
  2. I know of no other analysis of a substantially-different-from-today future scenario that is remotely as thorough as Age of Em. I like to quip, “Age of Em is like science fiction, except there is no plot, no characters, and it all makes sense.” If you often enjoy science fiction but are frustrated that it rarely makes sense on closer examination, then you want more books like Age of Em. The success or not of Age of Em may influence how many future authors try to write such books.
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