Search Results for: grabby aliens

Why We Can’t See Grabby Aliens

In two posts, I recently explained how a simple 3 parameter model of grabby aliens can explain our apparent early arrival in the universe, via a selection effect: we might give rise to a grabby civ, but that had to happen before other grabby civs took over all the volume.

With some collaborators, I’ve been exploring computer sims of this model, and found one striking statistic: at the origin time of a grabby civ, on average ~40% of universe volume is controlled by grabby aliens. A stat which seems obviously contradicted by what we see, namely nothing. In the volumes we see, they can’t be controlling much, at least if control would make it look much different. What gives?

In this post I want to show how this apparent emptiness can be explained by a parameter choice and a selection effect. First, let’s get oriented. Here is a spacetime diagram showing us now, and all the events that we can see from here, as our red backward light-cone.

Next, consider the fact that if we extend a yellow cone back in time from where we are at the grabby civ expansion speed, no grabby civ could have had their origin in that excluded volume, because if so then they would have prevented us, to prevent us from becoming grabby.

Because that’s the definition of grabby: they expand and prevent the origin of other grabby civs within the volumes they control. We could only see grabby civs who have their origin in the green volume, as their expansion would not have reached us yet.

Now if the expansion speed were small, that green area would encompass most of the volume in our past light-cone, and we’d still have a puzzle: why don’t we see them? But as their expansion speed approaches the speed of light, the green volume gets small, making for a low chance of seeing any grabby aliens. (The chance of not seeing one goes as roughly the fraction of their expansion speed to the speed of light.)

Now let’s look at one of those grabby civs we could see:

Since its origin is in the green volume, its forward expanding cone of control (in orange) intersects our backward light-cone. At the closest intersection point, the spatial extent of that civ is given by the horizontal purple line, which is large compared to its distance away. (Imagine space were 2D, fixing one end of the purple line at the origin axis, and rotating the other end out of the diagram.) So it would be absolutely huge in the sky. This diagram also shows our forward expansion cone intersecting its forward cone relatively soon in the future; we meet them soon.

Now look at the vertical purple line in this next diagram. Holding constant the spatial location of this alien origin, consider the other possible times at which this civ could have originated at that location and still be visible to us.

The higher is that origin point in the diagram, and the closer is that origin to our red backward light cone, then the smaller is that vertical purple line. And since geometrically the two purple lines must move in proportion, the smaller of an appearance that civ would make in the sky.

As civ origin times should be roughly uniformly distributed over that vertical range, there is thus only a tiny chance of seeing aliens that take up a tiny fraction of our sky. Either we see them huge, or not at all. So there’s little point in building bigger SETI telescopes or deeper surveys to try to see very tiny grabby aliens very far away.

Thus our grabby aliens model can use selection effects to explain not only why we have appeared so early in the history of the universe, but also why we don’t see them even though they should on average take up (and modify) ~40% of universe volume at the moment. At least if we postulate that their expansion speed is a substantial fraction of the speed of light. Which we already had reason to believe, just based on the idea that “grabby” civs try to grab as fast as they can.

Added 7Mar: Here is the likelihood ratio for seeing our data of no big alien volumes in the sky, as a function of power n and speed s/c:

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How Far To Grabby Aliens? Part 2.

In my last post, I recommended these assumptions:

  1. It is worth knowing how far to grabby alien civs (GCs), even if that doesn’t tell about other alien types.
  2. Try-try parts of the great filter alone make it unlikely for any one small volume to birth an GC in 14 billion years.
  3. We can roughly estimate GC expansion speed, and the number of hard try-try steps in the great filter.
  4. Earth is not now within the sphere of control of an GC.
  5. Earth is at risk of birthing an GC soon, making today’s date a sample from GC time origin distribution.

I tried to explain how these assumptions can allow us to estimate how far away are GC. And I promised to give more math details in my next post post. This is that next post.

First, I promised to elaborate on how well tn works as the chance that a small volume will birth a GC at time t. The simplest model is that eternal oases like Earth are all born at some t=0, and last forever. Each oasis must pass through a great filter, i.e., a sequence of hard steps, from simple dead matter to simple life to complex life, etc., ending at a GC birth. For each hard step, there’s a (different) constant chance per unit time to make it to the next step, a chance so low that the expected time for each step is much less than t.

In this case, the chance of GC birth per unit time in a small volume is tn, with n = h-1, where h is the number of hard steps. If there are many oases in a small volume with varying difficulty, their chances still add up to the same tn dependence as long as they all have the same number of hard steps between dead matter an a GC.

If there are try-once steps in the great filter, steps where an oasis can fail but which don’t take much time, that just reduces the constant in front of tn, without changing the tdependence. If there are also easy steps in this filter, steps that take expected time much less than t, these just add a constant delay, moving the t=0 point in time. We can accommodate other fixed delays in the same way.

We have so far assumed that, one the prior steps have happened, the chance of each step happening is constant per unit time. But we can also generalize to the case where this step chance per time is a power law tm , with t the time since the last step was achieved, and with a different mi for each step i. In this case, h = Σi (1+mi). These step powers m can be negative, or fractional.

Instead of having the oases all turn on at some t=0, oases like Earth with a chance tn can instead be born at a constant rate per unit time after some t=0. It turns out that the integrated chance across all such oases of birthing a GC at time t is again proportional to tn, with again n = h-1.

A more elaborate model would consider the actually distribution of star masses, which have a CDF that goes as m-1.5, and the actual distribution of stellar lifetime L per mass m, which has a CDF that goes as m-3. Assuming that stars of all masses are created at the same constant rate, but that each star drops out of the distribution when it reaches its lifetime, we still get that the chance of GC birth per unit time goes as tn, except that now n = h-1.5.

Thus the tn time dependence seems a decent approximation in more complex cases, even if the exact value of n varies with details. Okay, now lets get back to this diagram I showed in my last post:

If the GC expansion speed is constant in conformal time (a reasonable approximation for small civ spatial separations), and if the civ origin time x that shapes the diagram has rank r in this civ origin time distribution, then x,r should satisfy:

((1-r)/r) ∫0x tn dt = ∫x1 tn (1 – ((t-x)D/(1-x))) dt.
Here D is the space dimension. D = 3 is appropriate on the largest and the small many-star scales, but D = 2 across galaxy disks, and D = 1 in filaments of galaxies. This equation can be solved numerically. The ratio of the time from an GC origin til that GC directly meets aliens, relative to universe age at civ origin, is (1-x)/x, and is shown in this table:

The x-axis here is the power n in tn, and the y-axis is shown logarithmically. As you can see, aliens can be close in the sense that the time to reach aliens is much smaller than is the time it takes to birth the GC. This time til meet is also smaller for higher powers and for more spatial dimensions.

Note that these meet-to-origin time ratios don’t depend on the GC expansion speed. As I discussed in my last post, this model suggests that spatial distances between GC origins double if either the median GC origin time doubles, or if the expansion speed doubles. The lower is the expansion speed relative to the speed of light, the better a chance a civ has of seeing an approaching GC before meeting them directly. (Note that we only need a GC expansion speed estimate to get distributions over how many GCs each can see at its origin, and how easy they are to see. We don’t need speeds to estimate how long til meet aliens.)

To get more realistic estimates, I also made a quick Excel-based sim for a one dimensional universe. (And I am happy to get help making better sims, such as in higher dimensions.) I randomly picked 1000 candidate GC origins (x,t), with x drawn uniformly in [0,1], and t drawn proportional to tn in [0,1]. I then deleted any origin from this list if, before its slated origin time, it could be colonized from some other origin in the list at speed 1/4. What remained were the actual GC origin points.

Here is a table with key stats for 4 different powers n:

I also did a version with 4000 candidate GCs, speed 1/8, and power n = 10, in which there were 75 C origins. This diagram shows the resulting space-time history (time vertical, space horizontal):

In the lower part, we see Vs where an GC starts and grows outward to the left and right. In the upper part, we see Λs where two adjacent GC meet. As you can see, for high powers GC origins have a relatively narrow range of times, but a pretty wide range of spatial separations from adjacent GC.

Scaling these results to our 13.8 billion year origin date, we get a median time to meet aliens of  roughly 1.0 billion years, though the tenth percentile is about 250 million years. If the results of our prior math model are a guide, average times to meet aliens in D=3 would be about a factor two smaller. But the variance of these meet times should also be smaller, so I’m not sure which way the tenth percentile might change.

A more general way to sim this model is to:

  • A) set a power n in tn and estimate 1) a density in space-time of origins of oases which might birth GCs, 2) a distribution over oasis durations, and 3) a distribution over GC expansion speeds,
  • B) randomly sample 1) oasis spacetime origins, 2) durations to produce a candidate GC origin after its oasis origin times, using tn , and 3) expansion speed for each candidate GC,
  • C) delete candidate GCs if their birth happens after its oasis ends or after a colony from another GC colony could reach there before then at its expansion speed.
  • D) The GC origins that remain give a distribution over space-time of such GC origins. Projecting the expansion speed forward in time gives the later spheres of control of each GC until they meet.

I’ll put an added to this post if I ever make or find more elaborate sims of this model.

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How Far To Grabby Aliens? Part 1.

Many have tried to estimate how far away are aliens. For example, some apply the Drake equation, which is the product of 7 parameters, some of which can vary over quite wide ranges. Resulting estimates tend to be quite uncertain and disputable.

In this post, I introduce a more precise and definitive answer, at least for one especially important kind of alien. My median estimate is that, if we survive, we will meet this kind of alien in roughly a half billion years. In this post, I’ll try to give key intuitions. In my next post, I’ll give more math details.

We are now quite early in the history of the universe. Some of the stars around us will last a thousand times longer than our Sun. This key fact makes it hard to believe that, if Earth did not exist, no other civ (civilization) would ever colonize this area. If civs were that hard to make, then our civ shouldn’t be so early.

We should instead guess that eventually the universe will be mostly filled with civs, and thus one of the key constraints on the origin of any one civ is a need to pass a local great filter, going from no life to simple life to complex life to intelligence, etc., before some other civ arrives to colonize that area, and prevent new pics there.

That is, one key kind of alien is a “grabby civilization” (GC), which rapidly expands its sphere of control, and within that sphere a GC prevents the origin of any other GC. (Though it may allow the origin or continued existence of other kinds of aliens. And this “grabby” label says little about what happens when it directly meets another civ.)

It looks like there is a non-trivial chance that we here on Earth will give birth to such an GC near here. And soon. (Say within a million years.) I’m not here claiming (nor disputing) that this would be a good idea, or even that this chance is especially large. But this chance does seem real enough to justify treating our date now, 13.8 billion years after the Big Bang, as a data point drawn from the distribution of GC origin dates. Allowing us to draw inferences about that distribution.

My strategy will be to describe a mathematical model of this distribution that is both well-grounded theoretically, and also simple enough to allow concrete analysis and inference. One result of which is concrete estimates on how far away are the nearest aliens.

My mathematical model has just three parameters, two of which are already known to within roughly an order of magnitude, and the third of which we can infer about that well from our one timing data point. The first parameter is the speed at which an GC expands to colonize the space around it. At least until it directly meets another GC. This speed must be less than the speed of light, and grabbiness would tend to push an GC to higher speeds, but it isn’t clear just how much less than light speed an GC will have to accept.

The second parameter is the number of hard try-try steps in each local great filter. The fact that we now see no alien civilizations anywhere strongly suggests that any one oasis (e.g., planet) has a very low chance to start from simple dead matter and then give rise to a clearly visible civilization. Assume that this dead-matter-to-visibility filter has a similar size to the filter for dead matter giving rise to an GC. Assume also that even if there are also other try-once steps in this GC filter, the try-try steps are by themselves sufficiently hard that any one oasis (like Earth) is quite unlikely to, by itself, get through its great filter by today’s 13.8 billion year date. (Easy steps just create time delays, and any steps near the border between easy and hard give nearly mixed effects.)

These assumptions imply that the chance that any one small volume actually gives birth to an GC by a particular time t since the Big Bang is (after a time delay) proportional to tn, where n is near the number of hard try-try steps. (I’ll elaborate on this relation in my next post.)

The third parameter sets a constant in front of tn, an overall filter strength. This gives an absolute chance that the great filter is passed in one of the oases in a small standard volume by a particular date t. Our key datum of our being near ready to start an GC at 13.8 billion years after the Big Bang lets us estimate this filter constant. Given it, and also estimates on the other two parameters of speed and number of hard steps, we can infer our distance to the nearest aliens.

If that claim surprises you, consider the following diagram:

Assume that potential GC origins are uniformly distributed in space. If we integrate the probability density tn-1 over the yellow region, and then renormalize, that renormalization in effect sets the value of the overall filter strength, relative to the origin time of that one civ in the diagram.

If we then assume that this civ origin time is at the median of the renormalized distribution that we’ve calculated, we get a self-consistent model that gives an exact answer for the spacing between such civs! Yes, this model is only in one dimension, and doesn’t fully allow for variation in GC origin locations and timings. But it shows how it is possible to get a spacing between civs from only an expansion speed, a number of hard steps, and a sample origin time.

Note two key symmetries of this simple model. First, we get exactly the same model if we both double the duration from time start to this GC origin, and also the spatial distance between GC origins. Second, we get exactly the same model if we double both the expansion speed and the spatial distance between GC origins. Thus given a power n, an expansion speed, and a median GC origin time, the model is fully determined, setting a complete space-time distribution over GC origins and spheres of control.

In sum, it is possible to estimate how far away in space and time are the nearest aliens, if one is willing to make these assumptions:

  1. It is worth knowing how far to grabby aliens (GCs), even if that doesn’t tell about other alien types.
  2. Try-try parts of the great filter alone make it hard for any one oasis to birth an GC in 14 billion years.
  3. We can roughly estimate the speed at which GCs expand, and the number of hard try-try steps.
  4. Earth is not now within the sphere of control of a GC.
  5. Earth is at risk of birthing a GC soon, making today’s date a sample from GC time origin distribution.

In my next post I’ll give more math details, and discuss what concrete estimates they suggest about aliens.

Added: Here is a 2 hour interview I did with Adam Ford on this topic.

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On UFOs-As-Aliens Priors

A careful analysis of UFOs should consider lots of data, and consider it in much detail. I oft hear skeptics seek shortcuts, such as by declaring all testimony invalid, or insisting that only some long conjunction of encounter features could be sufficient. But consider a legal accusation of attempted murder. Even though the prior odds that a random  X attempts to kill Y during hour Z is terribly low (<10-12), we are still willing to entertain such claims, and we accept personal testimony as an important part of supporting evidence.

Yes, advocates of things like UFOs seem willing to put more time into such details, and it may seem unfair to expect skeptics to put in as much work. But jurors and lawyers must put in a lot of effort in legal trials. This is the great problem of how to divide intellectual labor; as with most topics, we do best if we task a few with going into great detail on each topic, so the rest of us can defer to their analysis. If you aren’t willing to go into sufficient detail, then admit this isn’t one of your topics, and defer to others on it.

In that spirit, instead of expressing opinions on many UFO topics, let me instead focus on the area where I have the most relative expertise: the priors to associate with the some-UFOs-are-aliens hypothesis. As far as I can tell, the main reason that most give for skepticism that aliens visit Earth in the UFO style is that this theory seems a priori crazy unlikely. But that estimate seems wrong to me. Let me explain.

A full Bayesian analysis of the four main UFO theory categories (error, hoax, secret Earth orgs, aliens) needs eight numbers: one prior and likelihood for each theory. In this post I try only to estimate one of these eight numbers: the prior for the aliens theory. Here goes.

Life exists here on Earth, and our standard best theories say that this was not a miracle, nor was Earth the only place such things could happen. Furthermore, our universe also seems very large (perhaps infinite). Thus our standard best theories predict that advanced life has appeared and will appear many times out there.

These standard best theories also predict a wide range of dates when this could happen. As a result, two independent alien origins are likely to be millions to trillions of years apart in time. Which gives aliens a lot of time to travel to visit other aliens.

So we can break down doubts on prior expectations about UFO as aliens into three parts:

  • What is the chance that advanced aliens appear often enough in space and time for some of them to have been born early and close enough to travel to Earth to be here now?
  • What is the chance that aliens (or, more likely their robot descendants) who can travel actually do travel to Earth by now, but do not visibly remake the local universe?
  • Given that aliens exist, and travel to here, but don’t remake the local universe, what is the chance that they would act the way that UFOs seem to act, i.e., being somewhat evasive, but not completely hiding nor announcing themselves?

First, how close might aliens be? As my co-authors and I discuss here, humans seem to have arrived quite early in history, at least if one assumes that the universe would remain empty and wait indefinitely for advanced life like us to appear. This is the main reason we offer for postulating a grabby aliens deadline, to explain human earliness. And our grabby aliens model implies that aliens do appear often enough for maybe some of them to have come here by now.

Now grabby aliens arriving by here now would also be quite visible to us now. But our basic model is quite consistent with variations wherein there are many, perhaps thousands or millions, of non-grabby alien civs per grabby civ, all born at the same sort of places and times. These non-grabby civs do not remake their local universe. So either they die fast, life long but do not expand, or they expand long but do little to remake their universe.

In my view, the most likely scenario that puts long-expanding-but-not-remaking aliens here now is panspermia siblings. Life arose long ago on some very rare Eden, which then seeded our Sun’s stellar nursery, with life quickly spreading to most stars in that nursery. At least two of these stars eventually developed advanced life, but Earth was not the first. Aliens at the first star looked for their panspermia siblings, noticed simple life on Earth here long ago, and then long ago traveled to near here to await the arrival of advanced life. Where they now do their weird UFO encounter things.

So to explain UFOs as aliens, we must postulate that these first star sibling aliens had preferences and coordination abilities sufficient to do the following:

  • prevent any parts of their own civ from expanding and visibly remaking the local universe,
  • travel to sibling stars that might birth civs, to stand ready to prevent them from also expanding, but also not kill them, and
  • while waiting here they allow or induce the sort of UFO encounters we see, but prevent any clearer more direct interactions.

I estimate a chance of at least 10% for each of the following events, given the prior events:

  1. Earth was seeded by panspermia in its nursery
  2. A sibling star gave rise to a long-lived advanced civ long before now
  3. That civ prevents itself from expanding, tries to prevent siblings from expanding, and long ago traveled to here to wait to enforce this preference,
  4. They induce or allow UFO-style encounters while they wait here.

Note that #1 requires a high enough rate of rock transfer between star systems, #2 requires that most of the great filter happened on Eden, #3 is more likely when civs adopt strong “world” governments, and #4 is relatively likely because we shouldn’t really expect to be able to predict detailed behaviors of strange alien civilizations.

Four factors of 10% gives a minimum prior chance of 10-4, but as most of the probability weight should above these minimums, I estimate the total chance to be at least 10-3. As I’ve said before, combining all the relevant priors and posteriors I judge the hoax and aliens theories to be most likely for the hardest-to-explain UFO cases. But I don’t claim as much expertise on all the other numbers required to judge that, as I do for the one number I estimate here:

The prior chance of the aliens theory of the hardest-to-explain UFO cases is at least 10-3, relative to the other three theory categories of error, hoax, and secret Earth orgs.

This prior is actually pretty high compared to the usual priors in most legal cases. So the types and amounts of evidence on particular cases that is sufficient to convict in legal cases seems sufficient to judge UFOs-are-aliens as more or less likely than not. But again, I have no special expertise to offer you for judging the details of UFO encounters. I can just say that you need to look at such details; you can’t just dismiss UFOs-as-aliens theory with a wave of your philosophical hands.

Added 10June: Many take issue with my estimating 1/10 for the chance that aliens waiting here would be somewhat evasive, but not completely hide nor announce themselves. They don’t see this as a good plan for any goals they can think of.

But we are talking about an entire alien civilization here! Human societies often do things, like fight wars or stop having kids, that seem counter-productive from the point of view of that society as a whole. In addition, individual humans often do things that seem counter-productive until you consider their signaling incentives. I wrote a whole book on this.

If we often have trouble explaining the behaviors of human societies and individuals, I don’t think we should feel very confident in predicting detailed behaviors of a completely alien civilization. After all, many have reasonably doubted if we could even communicate with aliens, or recognize them when we saw them. Having outlined some possible signaling motives for alien UFO behavior, I can see that there are many possible explanations for aliens-as-UFO behavior. Thus a 1/10 prior seems reasonable to me.

Added 13Jun: I did 6 Twitter polls to elicit relative priors and likelihoods for the four main theory categories:

Added 14Jun: Thinking through the consequences of the show-but-don’t-talk strategy suggests that it will work out pretty well for the aliens.

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To Beat Aliens, We Must Become Aliens

Fight fire with fire. It takes a thief to catch a thief. To defeat your enemy, know and become your enemy.

Across the long sweep of history, our ancestors have greatly changed. Animals to primates to foragers to farmers to the industrialists of today. Across these many ages, we’ve greatly changed our environments, habits, styles of thinking, and priorities. During the ages of humanity, this has led to increasing “alienation”, as our worlds drift increasingly far from the worlds in which human nature was formed.

Someday we may become expansive aliens who rapidly spread life and civilization throughout a vast volume, stopping only perhaps when we meet other expansive aliens (in perhaps a few hundred million years). But we are far from up to that task now, and to reach that level we must probably pass through several more ages. Ages with big changes to our environments, habits, styles of thinking, and priorities. (Perhaps the next age would be an “age of em”.)

These changes will induce even greater alienation, at least as long as human nature doesn’t change greatly. And even if our descendants manage to change human nature, to make their new worlds seem more natural to them, that very prospect may horrify the residents of some prior ages. They may see even modest changes a loss of “humanity” due to many specific value changes. And so they may seek to prevent such new ages.

And this, I expect, is one of the greatest obstacles to our descendants becoming expansionist, and taking their place among the great alien civilizations who fill the universe with life and thereafter set its destinies. Some particular age, which could only have existed because many prior ages diminished and give birth to new different ages, “will stand athwart history, yelling ‘Stop!’”.

The ability to do this will be greatly aided by a world government, both in mood and in implementation. Which part of why I fear such a government. Let each age instead “diminish, and go into the West“, giving birth to differing descendant ages, so that we can help fill the cosmos with life, with “descendants as numerous as the stars in the sky“.

Added 9am: To make the matter more concrete, if they had understood the actual consequences, should pre-human primates have wanted to prevent the rise of humans? Should hyper-egalitarian, leisurely, and promiscuous foragers have wanted to prevent the rise of farmers,  with their hard work, war, inequality, slaves, and marriage? Should strongly religious, nationalistic and pro-marriage farmers have wanted to prevent the rise of industrialists who abandon such things? Should we want to prevent an age of em?

Added 7Apr: In four Twitter polls, I asked if the people of various eras would, according to their values, want to prevent successor ages. Results: 2-1 majorities think forager & farmer values would lead them to prevent following (farmer & industry) eras, even as majorities think primate & industry era values would not lead them to prevent following (human & em) eras. This seems to be overall pretty bad news for the prospect of there being many future eras once eras can coordinate to prevent successor eras.

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Are Expansive Aliens Obvious?

In our 3 parameter model of where are the grabby aliens in space and time, each parameter can be estimated using existing data: our current date, the dates of major events in Earth history, and the fact that we don’t see aliens clearly visible in our sky.

That last “fact” might seem most open to question, so what if we reject it? Well if we still assume that we would have noticed being directly inside a grabby-controlled volume, then our model still applies. That is, we would still know where grabby aliens are distributed in time, and they’d be distributed the same shape in space, except that their density in space rises by a factor of one thousand for every factor of ten by which their speed falls.

Instead of our usual assumption, that we would have by now noticed differences between volumes controlled or not by grabby aliens, we’d be in a world where they make their spherical-until-meeting volumes look only subtly different, a difference that we have not yet noticed.

In this case, there could be hope for astronomers to search the sky for subtle circular borders in the sky between GC volumes and surrounding volumes. The next two graphs show, as a function of power n and speed ratio s/c, distributions over how many such volumes there would be in the sky, and their total length in radians of their borders on the sky. (The maximum length of a circle on the sky is 2π radians.)

These distributions are mainly due to varying birthdate; earlier civilizations see fewer others in their sky.

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Non-Grabby Legacies

Our descendants will have far more effects on the universe if they become grabby, and most of their expected effects come in that scenario. Even so, as I discussed in my last post, most see only a small chance for that scenario. So what if we remain a non-grabby civilization? What will be our long-term legacies then?

In roughly a billion years, grabby aliens should pass by here, and then soon change this whole area more to their liking. At that point, those grabby aliens will probably have never met any other grabby aliens, and will be very interested in estimating what they might be like, and especially what they might do when the two meet. And one of their main sources of concrete data will be the limited number of non-grabby alien civilizations that they have come across.

Which is all to say that these grabby aliens will be very interested in learning about us, and should be willing to pay substantial costs to do so. So in the unlikely event that our civilization could last the roughly billion years until they get here, those aliens would probably pay substantial costs to protect and preserve us, if that were the cost of learning about us. Of course if they had more advanced tech, they might have other less-fun-for-us ways to achieve that goal.

In the more likely case where we do not last that long, the grabby aliens who arrive here will be looking for any fossils or remnants that they could study. Stuff left here on the surface of the Earth probably won’t survive that long, but stuff left on the surface of geologically dead places like the moon or Mars might well. As could stuff left orbiting between the planets or stars.

Anticipating this outcome, some of us might try to leave data stores about us for them to find. Like we did on the Voyager spacecraft. As our long term legacy. And some of those folks might try to tie their personal revival to such stores. I’m not sure how it could be done, but if you could mix up the info they want with the info that specifies you as an em, maybe you could make it so that the easiest way for them to get the info they want is to revive you.

Of course if a great many people tried this trick, they might bid the “price” down very low. “They want you to revive them for a week to get your info; I only ask one day.” So elites might regulate who is allowed to leave legacy data stores, to keep this privilege to themselves.

Long before grabby aliens got here, they would pass through spacetime events where we’d be active on their past light cone. In fact, sending out a signal from here in most any direction should eventually hit some grabby aliens expanding in our direction. So if we could coordinate with them to send signals out just when they’d be looking at us (such as by sending signals following those from a cosmic explosion), we could tell them about us, and influence them, via such signals.

Some of us might want to try the trick of mixing up their em code with the info aliens want, to force their revival at the receiver end, but the bandwidth to send signals to be received in a 100Myr is rather small. However, as I’ve discussed before, one key function for such signals is that they can prove that they were sent on the date claimed. Later data stores found here are less trustworthy, as they could have been modified in the interim. So perhaps we could send out hash codes to verify datastores saved here now.

We could of course also tell them about any other non-grabby aliens we have discovered. But they’d probably already know about them, assuming they have vastly greater capabilities and tech at least as good as ours.

So is this an exciting legacy to you? A few stories about us that might help some other ambitious civilization calibrate how yet other ambitious civilizations will react upon meeting? No, well then maybe we should work on figuring out how to become grabby ourselves.

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Think of the (Alien) Children!

If he was to lose his little finger to-morrow, he would not sleep to-night; but, provided he never saw them, he will snore with the most profound security over the ruin of a hundred millions of his brethren [in China].  Adam Smith

Among all the articles on UFOs I’ver read over the last half year, about half of them mentioned the possibility that some UFOs are aliens. But I can’t recall any giving thought to how such aliens might feel about the issue. Isn’t that awful self-centered of us? 

You may say that you can’t be bothered to empathize with only hypothetical creatures, and we just aren’t at all sure that UFO aliens exist. Fair enough. But then I will point you to grabby aliens; in my opinion we have strong enough evidence of their existence to say they are more likely to exist than not. If you recall, we need to explain why humans have arrived so early in the history of the universe, and a deadline set by grabby aliens who will soon fill up the universe seems our most robust explanation.

You may say that you can’t just take my word for this, that you must wait to see this argument endorse by standard academic astrophysics authorities. That, you say, is how “science” works. Fair enough. I hereby announce that our grabby aliens paper has been accepted for publication in one of the top astrophysics journals, aptly named Astrophysical Journal. (Here is a press release.) So now its not just speculation.

You may say that you still need to be sure they exist to care, and our results can’t support that level of certainty. But on the subject of global warming people often lament its effect on distant future generations, even though we can’t be sure that such future generations will exist. So you don’t need to be that sure, right?

You may argue that you’ll need to know more about these aliens before you can care about them. Fair enough. So let me tell you many things about them. They once were animals with minds and bodies like yours, but have since reimplemented themselves as artificial life. And they have been artificial life for millions of years; their tech is vastly more advanced than yours.

Even so, they are still more like you than all the other kinds of animals on Earth, as they should have trade, language, law, war, hierarchy, governance, tech, and much more. The first ones we meet will be frontier aliens, descendants of a long line who prioritized staying at the leading edge of expansion. At the expense of other things, such as world government. 

There, now do you know enough to care? Does it help to know that there are vastly more of them out there are humans on Earth?

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Why Are We Weird?

The following has long been a useful heuristic: if your usual theory says that something important looks like a big outlier, seek another theory where it isn’t. For example, when some physics calculations suggested that most brains like ours in the history of the universe would be random fluctuation “Boltzman brains” in the distant future, many took that as suggesting that those calculations were wrong. Which it seems that they in fact were. Many now feel similarly about eternal inflation calculations suggesting we are very late in our inflation bubble’s lifetime compared to the average space-time volume.

This heuristic gives us doubts about theories which say that we today are weird compared to all the other “we”s that we could have been. For example, if the history of the universe so far is representative of its future, and if each of us could counterfactually have been any lump of matter in the universe, then we should be very surprised to find ourselves among the very rare sentient creatures. And even if we think we could only have been sentient creatures, we should still be pretty surprised (even if less surprised) to find ourselves among the few most complex conscious creatures that have ever been on our planet.

Yes, we have clear evidence that we are not dead lumps of matter, nor simpler creatures, but even so we can be surprised to see such evidence. Yes, only creatures as smart as we are with language could even ask such questions via language. But that needn’t stop our surprise. Is there alternate theory that makes these less surprising?

What if we don’t take the past of the universe to be representative of its future? For example, our grabby aliens model predicts that the universe will fill up within a few billion years and then be densely and efficiently populated with artificial life, much of it intelligent and sentient. If we include all that among the creatures that we could have been, then we should be surprised to find ourselves so early in the history of the universe, out of all those future sentient creatures.

Now there must be some average number of future descendants per alien civilization that would make us today more typical, sitting midway between all those sentient animals in our past, and all that future artificial life before our civilization ends. But there’s no particular good reason to expect civilizations to have anything near that average number of future descendants. And even then we’d be unusual in living in a rare short special dreamtime between those vast pasts and futures.

I don’t really have any answer to offer here. This situation puts me on the lookout for a plausible theory that would make us less weird, but so far I don’t see one. Seems we are in fact weird. You might think this would make us more sympathetic to the more weird among us, but no.

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The Coming Cosmic Control Conflict

We moderns like to join factions associated with ideologies, and many of our most inspiring stories are of great conflicts between ideologically-affiliated factions. We like such stories more when they have more morally-intense ideologies, bigger conflicts in space, time, and social scope, more impressive combatants, and more real and well-defined events.

At a cost in realism, science fiction and fantasy often turn up the other dials, making ideologies extreme, conflicts galaxy-wide, and giving combatants god-like powers. But for realism and definition, we tend to retreat to WWII, which ranks high on moral intensity, but less high on other criteria. Or more recent struggles for group respect. Our true stories of the largest scope, about our vast universe, tend to fail badly; past stories lack conflict or combatants, while future stories lack definition.

Having recently given a lot of thought to grabby aliens and UFOs as aliens, it occurs to me that they can offer great conflict stories of substantial moral intensity, plausible realism and definition, and quite unprecedented size, scope, and combatant impressiveness. Let us consider telling such stories!

The combatants in which we can be most confident are grabby aliens; the fact that we have appeared so early in the universe tells us that they are out there, and three other datums tell us we’ll meet them in roughly a billion years, if we last that long. Grabby civilizations will come into direct conflict with each other at their borders, and will compete more widely to influence the culture of the next hundred billion years. These conflicts rate high on reality, scope, and impressive combatants, but alas it seems hard to guess how such civilizations will differ, and thus to guess the ideologies that might orient their conflicts.

We can have less confidence that aliens are behind some UFOs. But they plausibly exist, and we can say a lot about a big ideological conflict they must have with grabby aliens. We can reasonably guess that UFO aliens have developed many millions of years past our level, are not changing fast now, and have coordinated to prevent any part of them from getting grabby, i.e., from aggressively expanding and filling the universe with their descendants. To achieve this, we can be pretty sure that they created a strong persistent “world” governments. And enforcing their anti-grabby rules on us is the obvious reason for them to be here now coyly showing themselves to us.

Furthermore, even if there are no aliens behind UFOs, we can forsee this same conflict in our future; we are likely to coordinate to try to prevent parts of our civilization from getting grabby. Thus the pro- vs. anti- grabby conflict is plausibly the big future ideological divide, whether or not UFOs are aliens. Let me explain.

For at least a million years, human foragers coordinated within each band to enforce local norms; individual humans were not free to do whatever they wanted. With farming, societies became larger and had more contact with outsiders, but within each society they enforced many norms and laws. And in our world today we actually have pretty strong global coordination enforcing many global norms via local laws. Human organizations have consistently been rising in size and scope, making much stronger global governance a likely outcome over the coming centuries. (It certainly happens in Age of Em.)

As an economist, I see that most people feel strongly that individual freedoms must be constrained by governance, and many seem to regret that we do not have stronger and larger scale governance to deal with our biggest problems. Few favor cutting our scales of governance. Even when governments seem to consistently fail at a task they’ve been assigned, like the unwinnable war on drugs, most are reluctant to give up; instead budgets and powers are continually increased.

Furthermore, I see these laments especially among futurists, who consider longer timescales and bigger problems. For example, many are uncomfortable with “capitalist” competition, which they hope will end soon or at least become globally managed, to prevent capitalist competition between nations. And many are wary of plain old biological competition, even without capitalism. For example, many see a big problem with overpopulation, for which their natural solution is global regulation of fertility. Some imagine that local unconstrained evolution might eliminate consciousness from future agents, or allow the values of our descendants to drift far from our own values, and suggest strong global governance as remedies for these.

In addition, we should expect rates of change due to natural selection to greatly increase with the rise of artificial life, which is likely to dominate our future starting in a few centuries. So whatever problems result from unmanaged natural selection are likely to become much stronger soon, and at a time when we in fact have a pretty strong world government.

If within a few centuries we have a strong world government managing capitalist competition, overpopulation, value drift, and much more, we might come to notice that these and many other governance solutions to pressing problems are threatened by unrestrained interstellar colonization. Independent colonies able to change such solutions locally could allow population explosions and value drift, as well as capitalist competition that beats out home industries. That is, colony independence suggests unmanaged colony competition. In addition, independent colonies would lower the status of those who control the central government.

So authorities would want to either ban such colonization, or to find ways to keep colonies under tight central control. Yet it seems very hard to keep a tight lid on colonies. The huge distances involved make it hard to require central approval for distant decisions, and distant colonists can’t participate as equals in governance without slowing down the whole process dramatically. Worse, allowing just one sustained failure, of some descendants who get grabby, can negate all the other successes. This single failure problem gets worse the more colonies there are, the further apart they spread, and the more advanced technology gets.

Thus if our descendants strongly value the regulations and coordinations that their world government allows, and are unwilling to give them up, then they may be strongly tempted to simply ban interstellar colonization beyond some manageable limits. Which is exactly what it seems that any aliens behind UFOs must have done successfully for millions of years. The exact opposite of the aggressive expansion that, for billions of years, has been and will continue to be chosen by grabby aliens.

Yes, banning internal expansion should put any civilization at a great disadvantage should they ever encounter a grabby one. But that distant possibility in perhaps a billion years may just not carry much weight against more immediate concerns. It might be easier to slip into denial, emphasizing the lack of solid proof that there will ever be any grabby aliens.

And there we have it: the grand cosmic conflict between authorities who use a strong world government to prevent local expansion, and grabby-wannabe rebels seeking a way to slip through this blockage and expand. A conflict with big values at stake, very impressive combatants, that takes places on the greatest scales of space, time, and social range, and which seems likely to be very real. Don’t you want to hear stories about that? Won’t someone write stories about that?

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