Tag Archives: Tech

Auto-Auto Deadline Looms

It is well-known that while electricity led to big gains in factory productivity, few gains were realized until factories were reorganized to take full advantage of the new possibilities which electric motors allowed. Similarly, computers didn’t create big productivity gains in offices until work flow and tasks were reorganized to take full advantage.

Auto autos, i.e., self-driving cars, seem similar: while there could be modest immediate gains from reducing accident rates and lost productive time commuting, the biggest gains should come from reorganizing our cities to match them. Self-driving cars could drive fast close together to increase road throughput, and be shared to eliminate the need for parking. This should allow for larger higher-density cities. For example, four times bigger cities could plausibly be twenty-five percent more productive.

But to achieve most of these gain, we must make new buildings with matching heights and locations. And this requires that self-driving cars make their appearance before we stop making so many new buildings. Let me explain.

Since buildings tend to last for many decades, one of the main reasons that cities have been adding many new buildings is that they have had more people who need buildings in which to live and work. But world population growth is slowing down, and may peak around 2055. It should peak earlier in rich nations, and later in poor nations.

Cities with stable or declining population build a lot fewer buildings; it would take them a lot longer to change city organization to take advantage of self-driving cars. So the main hope for rapidly achieving big gains would be in rapidly growing cities. What we need is for self-driving cars to become available and cheap enough in cities that are still growing fast enough, and which have legal and political support for driving such cars fast close together, so they can achieve high throughput. That is, people need to be sufficiently rewarded for using cars in ways that allow more road throughput. And then economic activity needs to move from old cities to the new more efficient cities.

This actually seems like a pretty challenging goal. China and India are making lots of buildings today, but those buildings are not well-matched to self-driving cars. Self-driving cars aren’t about to explode there, and by the time they are cheap the building boom may be over. Google announced its self-driving car program almost four years ago, and that hasn’t exactly sparked a tidal wave of change. Furthermore, even if self-driving cars arrive soon enough, city-region politics may well not be up to the task of coordinating to encourage such cars to drive fast close together. And national borders, regulation, etc. may not let larger economies be flexible enough to move much activity to the new cities who manage to support auto autos well.

Alas, overall it is hard to be very optimistic here. I have hopes, but only weak hopes.

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Tech Regs Are Coming

Over world history, we have seen a lot of things regulated. We can see patterns in these regulations, and we understand many of them – it isn’t all a mystery.

As far as I can tell, these patterns suggest that recent tech like operating systems, search engines, social networks, and IM systems are likely to be substantially regulated. For example, these systems have large network effects and economies of scale and scope. Yet they are now almost entirely unregulated. Why?

Some obvious explanations, fitting with previous patterns of regulation, are that these techs are high status, new, and changing fast. But these explanations suggest that low regulation is temporary. As they age, these systems will change less, eroding their high status derived from being fashionable. They will become stable utilities that we all use, like the many other stable utilities we use without much thought. And that we regulate, often heavily.

You’d think that if we all know regulation is coming, that we’d be starting to argue about how and how much to regulate these things. Yet I hear little of this. Those who want little regulation might keep quiet, hoping the rest will just forget. But silence is more puzzling for those who want more regulation. Are they afraid to seem low status by proposing to regulate things that are still high status?

Similarly puzzling to me are all these internet businesses built on the idea that ordinary regulations don’t apply to stuff bought on the internet. They think that if you buy them on the internet, hired cars and drivers don’t have to follow cab regulations, rooms for a night don’t have to follow hotel regulations, ventures soliciting investors don’t have to follow securities regulations, and so on. Yes, regulators are slow and reluctant to regulate high status things, but can they really expect to evade regulation long enough to pay off their investors?

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Slowing Computer Gains

Whenever I see an article in the popular sci/tech press on the long term future of computing hardware, it is almost always on quantum computing. I’m not talking about articles on smarter software, more robots, or putting chips on most objects around us; those are about new ways to use the same sort of hardware. I’m talking about articles on how the computer chips themselves will change.

This quantum focus probably isn’t because quantum computing is that important to the future of computing, nor because readers are especially interested in distant futures. No, it is probably because quantum computing is sexy in academia, appearing often in top academic journals and university press releases. After all, sci/tech readers mainly want to affiliate with impressive people, or show they are up on the latest, not actually learn about the universe or the future.

If you search for “future of computing hardware”, you will mostly find articles on 3D hardware, where chips are in effect layered directly in top of one another, because chip makers are running into limits to making chip features smaller. This makes sense, as that seems the next big challenge for hardware firms.

But in fact the rest of the computer world is still early in the process of adjusting to the last big hardware revolution: parallel computing. Because of dramatic slowdowns in the last decade of chip speed gains, the computing world must get used to writing a lot more parallel software. Since that is just harder, there’s a real economic sense in which computer hardware gains have slowed down lately.

The computer world may need to make additional adaptations to accommodate 3D chips, as just breaking a program into parallel processes may not be enough; one may also have to to keep relevant memory closer to each processor to achieve the full potential of 3D chips. The extra effort to go into 3D and make these adaptations suggests that the rate of real economic gains from computer hardware will slow down yet again with 3D.

Somewhere around 2035 or so, an even bigger revolution will be required. That is about when the (free) energy used per gate operations will fall to the level thermodynamics says is required to erase a bit of information. After this point, the energy cost per computation can only fall by switching to “reversible” computing designs, that only rarely erase bits. See (source):

PowerTrend

Computer operations are irreversible, and use (free) energy to in effect erase bits, when they lack a one-to-one mapping between input and output states. But any irreversible mapping can be converted to a reversible one-to-one mapping by saving its input state along with its output state. Furthermore, a clever fractal trick allows one to create a reversible version of any irreversible computation that takes exactly the same time, costing only a logarithmic-in-time overhead of extra parallel processors and memory to reversibly erase intermediate computing steps in the background (Bennett 1989).

Computer gates are usually designed today to change as rapidly as possible, and as a result in effect irreversibly erase many bits per gate operation. To erase fewer bits instead, gates must be run “adiabatically,” i.e., slowly enough so key parameters can change smoothly. In this case, the rate of bit erasure per operation is proportional to speed; run a gate twice as slowly, and it erases only half as many bits per operation (Younis 1994).

Once reversible computing is the norm, gains in making more smaller faster gates will have to be split, some going to let gates run more slowly, and the rest going to more operations. This will further slow the rate at which the world gains more economic value from computers. Sometime much further in the future, quantum computing may be feasible enough so it is sometimes worth using special quantum processors inside larger ordinary computing systems. Fully quantum computing is even further off.

My overall image of the future of computing is of continued steady gains at the lowest levels, but with slower rates of economic gains after each new computer hardware revolution. So the “effective Moore’s law” rate of computer capability gains will slow in discrete steps over the next century or so. We’ve already seen a slowdown from a need for parallelism, and within the next decade or so we’ll see more slowdown from a need to adapt to 3D chips. Then about 2030 or so we’ll see a big reversibility slowdown due to a need to divide part gains between more operations and using less energy per operation.

Overall though, I doubt the rate of effective gains will slow down by more than a factor of four over the next half century. So, whatever you might have thought could happen in 50 years if Moore’s law had continued steadily, is pretty likely to happen within 200 years. And since brain emulation is already nicely parallel, including with matching memory usage, I doubt the relevant rate of gains there will slow by much more than a factor of  two.

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