Tag Archives: Personal

Me At NIPS Workshop

Tomorrow I’ll present on prediction markets and disagreement, in Montreal at the NIPS Workshop on Transactional Machine Learning and E-Commerce. A video will be available later.

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Thank You GMU Econ!

Ten years ago today the GMU economics department voted to award me tenure. With that vote, I won my academic gamble. I can’t be sure what my odds reasonably were, so I can’t be sure it was a gamble worth taking. And I’m not sure tenure is overall good for the world. But I am sure that I’m very glad that I achieved tenure.

Many spend part of their tenure dividend on leisure. Many spend part on continuing to gain academic prestige as they did before. Many switch to more senior roles in the academic prestige game. And some spend tenure on riskier research agendas, agendas that are foolish for folks seeing tenure.

Though some may disagree, I see myself as primarily in this last category.  And since that would not be possible without tenure, I bow in sincere supplication, and thank my colleagues for this treasured honor. THANK YOU for my tenure.

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AI Boom Bet Offers

A month ago I mentioned that lots of folks are now saying “this time is different” – we’ll soon see a big increase in jobs lost to automation, even though we’ve heard such warnings every few decades for centuries. Recently Elon Musk joined in:

The risk of something seriously dangerous happening is in the five year timeframe … 10 years at most.

If new software will soon let computers take over many more jobs, that should greatly increase the demand for such software. And it should greatly increase the demand for computer hardware, which is a strong complement to software. So we should see a big increase in the quantity of computer hardware purchased. The US BEA has been tracking the fraction of the US economy devoted to computer and electronics hardware. That fraction was 2.3% in 1997, 1.7% in 2003, and 1.58% in 2008, and 1.56% in 2012. I offer to bet that this number won’t rise above 5% by 2025. And I’ll give 20-1 odds! So far, I have no takers.

The US BLS tracks the US labor share of income, which has fallen from 64% to 58% in the last decade, a clear deviation from prior trends. I don’t think this fall is mainly due to automation, and I think it may continue to fall for those other reasons. Even so, I think this figure rather unlikely to fall below 40% by 2025. So I bet Chris Hallquist at 12-1 odds against this (my $1200 to his $100).

Yes it would be better to bet on software demand directly, and on world stats, not just US stats. But these stats seem hard to find.

Added 3p: US CS/Eng college majors were: 6.5% in ’70, 9.7% in ’80, 9.6% in ’90, 9.4% in ’00, 7.9% in ’10. I’ll give 8-1 odds against > 15% by 2025. US CS majors were: 2.4K in ’70, 15K in ’80, 25K in ’90, 44K in ’00, 59K in ’03, 43K in ’10 (out of 1716K total grads). I’ll give 10-1 against > 200K by 2025.

Added 9Dec: On twitter @harryh accepted my 20-1 bet for $50. And Sam beats my offer: 

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On Stossel Tonight

I should be on tonight’s (9pm EST) episode of Stossel, on Fox Business TV, talking about biases.

Added 8Dec: I was wrong; the show should air Thursday Dec. 11

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Hanson Loves Moose Caca

Warning: this post touches on sensitive topics.

In the movie “My Big Fat Greek Wedding,” when Toula was a little girl, she sat alone in the school cafeteria, frizzy haired, big nosed, and unpopular. The blonde girls at the next table asked her what she was eating, and Toula quietly said “moussaka.” The popular girls laughed cruelly, saying “Ewwww, ”moose caca!”” (more)

Imagine that those cruel girls had gone on to tell other kids “Toula says she loves to eat moose caca!” That is how I feel when Noah Smith says:

Why is it that the sciences look like a feminist nirvana compared with the economics profession, which seems to have a built-in bias that prevents women from advancing?

Consider this 2011 blog post by George Mason University economist Robin Hanson. Hanson writes that “gentle, silent rape” of a woman by a man causes less harm than a wife cuckolding her husband:

I [am puzzled] over why our law punishes rape far more than cuckoldry…[M]ost men would rather be raped than cuckolded…Imagine a woman was drugged into unconsciousness and then gently raped, so that she suffered no noticeable physical harm nor any memory of the event, and the rapist tried to keep the event secret…Now compare the two cases, cuckoldry and gentle silent rape.

There was no outcry whatsoever over these remarks, nor any retraction that I could find. (more)

Now I’ve admitted as far back as 2006 that academia, economics included, is biased against women. (Having been in both physics and computer science before, I doubt the situation is much worse in econ.) This one post of mine that Smith points to did induce many negative responses in comments and elsewhere, and of my thousands of blog posts I’d be surprised if much more than a dozen had induced any blog responses by economists whatsoever. And I suggested that we consider that the harms of rape and cuckoldry might be similar; I didn’t claim I knew one to be definitely larger.

But more fundamentally, Noah Smith is plenty smart enough to understand that I was not at all minimizing the harm of rape when I used rape as a reference to ask if other harms might be even bigger. Just as people who accuse others of being like Hitler do not usually intend to praise Hitler, people who compare other harms to rape usually intend to emphasize how big are those other harms, not how small is rape.

But I’m pretty sure Smith knows that. Yet, like the girls who taunted Toula, Smith finds it suits him better to pretend to misunderstand.

Added noon: Steve Sailer weighs in.

Added 2p: Noah Smith and I have been having a twitter conversation on this.

Added 4p: My topic was the relative harm of cuckoldry & rape. Noah Smith says that this topic itself is innately offensive to most women, who think cuckoldry to be of such low harm that comparing it with rape suggests rape to be low harm. He is further offended that I would talk on a topic if I knew it might offend in this way. I said his presuming cuckoldry is of very low harm offends the many men who think it very high harm. He disagrees that there are many such men, and would bet on a poll on the subject, but thinks it offensive to make such a poll, and won’t help with that.

Added 10a Sunday: Heartiste has a poll with over 3700 respondents so far on preferring rape or cuckoldry. Express your opinion there, or start a new poll somewhere.

Added Tuesday: Now Noah Smith wonders out loud if I’m a fake nerd, who pretends not to understand political correctness so I can have an excuse to offend people. Cause people so admire nerds that of course everyone wants to look like one …

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This Time Isn’t Different

~1983 I read two articles that inspired me to change my career. One was by Ted Nelson on hypertext publishing, and the other by Doug Lenat on artificial intelligence. So I quit my U. of Chicago physics Ph.D. program and headed to Silicon Valley, for a job doing AI at Lockheed, and a hobby doing hypertext with Nelson’s Xanadu group.

A few years later, ~1986, I penned the following parable on AI research:

COMPLETE FICTION by Robin Hanson

Once upon a time, in a kingdom nothing like our own, gold was very scarce, forcing jewelers to try and sell little tiny gold rings and bracelets. Then one day a PROSPECTOR came into the capitol sporting a large gold nugget he found in a hill to the west. As the word went out that there was “gold in them thar hills”, the king decided to take an active management role. He appointed a “gold task force” which one year later told the king “you must spend lots of money to find gold, lest your enemies get richer than you.”

So a “gold center” was formed, staffed with many spiffy looking Ph.D types who had recently published papers on gold (remarkably similar to their earlier papers on silver). Experienced prospectors had been interviewed, but they smelled and did not have a good grasp of gold theory.

The center bought a large number of state of the art bulldozers and took them to a large field they had found that was both easy to drive on and freeway accessible. After a week of sore rumps, getting dirty, and not finding anything, they decided they could best help the gold cause by researching better tools.

So they set up some demo sand hills in clear view of the king’s castle and stuffed them with nicely polished gold bars. Then they split into various research projects, such as “bigger diggers”, for handling gold boulders if they found any, and “timber-gold alloys’, for making houses from the stuff when gold eventually became plentiful.

After a while the town barons complained loud enough and also got some gold research money. The lion’s share was allocated to the most politically powerful barons, who assigned it to looking for gold in places where it would be very convenient to find it, such as in rich jewelers’ backyards. A few bulldozers, bought from smiling bulldozer salespeople wearing “Gold is the Future” buttons, were time shared across the land. Searchers who, in their alloted three days per month of bulldozer time, could just not find anything in the backyards of “gold committed” jewelers were admonished to search harder next month.

The smart money understood that bulldozers were the best digging tool, even though they were expensive and hard to use. Some backward prospector types, however, persisted in panning for gold in secluded streams. Though they did have some success, gold theorists knew that this was due to dumb luck and the incorporation of advanced bulldozer research ideas in later pan designs.

After many years of little success, the king got fed up and cut off all gold funding. The center people quickly unearthed their papers which had said so all along. The end.

P.S. There really was gold in them thar hills. Still is.

As you can see, I had become disillusioned on academic research, but still suffered youthful over-optimism on near-term A.I. prospects.

I’ve since learned that we’ve seen “booms” like the one I was caught up in then every few decades for centuries. In each boom many loudly declare high expectations and concern regarding rapid near-term progress in automation. “The machines are finally going to soon put everyone out of work!” Which of course they don’t. We’ve instead seen a pretty slow & steady rate of humans displaced by machines on jobs.

Today we are in another such boom. For example, David Brooks recently parroted Kevin Kelley saying this time is different because now we have cheaper hardware, better algorithms, and more data. But those facts were also true in most of the previous booms; nothing has fundamentally changed! In truth, we remain a very long way from being able to automate all jobs, and we should expect the slow steady rate of job displacement to long continue.

One way to understand this is in terms of the distribution over human jobs of how good machines need to be to displace humans. If this parameter is distributed somewhat evenly over many orders of magnitude, then continued steady exponential progress in machine abilities should continue to translate into only slow incremental displacement of human jobs. Yes machines are vastly better than they were before, but they must get far more vastly better to displace most human workers.

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“I Robot, You Unemployed”

Tomorrow (Wednesday) at 7pm EST I’ll do a Learn Liberty Live! web presentation on “I, Robot. You, Unemployed” here. After a short ten minute presentation, I’ll lead ninety minutes of discussion. I expect to focus on em econ.

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Cyprus Mail Profile

From a wide-ranging profile of me in the Cyprus Mail (a newspaper):

I’ve learned a bit about his lifestyle – [Hanson] reads widely; he goes biking; he likes movies, and peruses ‘100 Best Films’ lists to check how many he’s seen – but not very much. A profile is supposed to be personal, I remind him. But he shakes his head.

When interviewers talk to a musician or an athlete (or indeed a well-known academic), he points out, they’re forever asking them to ‘tell me about the rest of your life’ – yet “the way people become famous musicians or athletes is to focus so much of their energy on this professional thing, [so] there usually isn’t much of a ‘rest of their life’. And that’s not a message people usually want to hear, so they make up silly things in order to seem personal.”

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Great Filter TEDx

This Saturday I’ll speak on the great filter at TEDx Limassol in Cyprus. Though I first wrote about the subject in 1996, this is actually the first time I’ve been invited to speak on it. It only took 19 years. I’ll post links here to slides and video when available.

Added 22Sep: A preliminary version of the video can be found here starting at minute 34.

Added 12Dec: The video is finally up:

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Boston Talks This Week

Monday: Why is Abstraction both Statusful and Silly? 7:00p, 98 Elm St Apt 1, Somerville.
Tuesday: Shall We Vote On Values, But Bet On Beliefs? noon, 206 Lake Hall, Northeastern Univ.
Wednesday: Factoring Geopolitical Risk Into Decision-Making, 12:20p, Global ICON Conf.

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