Tag Archives: Meta

OB Ads?

I have not accepted any compensation for anything I’ve done on this blog.  But folks keep offering to pay me to put their ads on this blog.  I wonder: am I being too prudish?  Presumably the more money I make blogging, the more I’ll blog.

So let me ask you all:  how many readers would think less of me or my writings if had a special Ads sidebar, but promised that ads would not influence what I blogged?  How selective should I be; am I implicitly “endorsing” the advertised products?  And how much should I charge?

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Moving Hiatus

This evening at midnight Eastern Daylight Time, this blog will begin to move to a new hosting site.  For a smooth transition, please don’t comment from then until 2am EST.

Added 26May: So do you think of the new format?

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NYC Meetup Friday 7pm

As I'll be in New York City for a conference, let's have a meetup there this Friday.  We'll start 7pm at Georgia's Cafe & Bake Shop, 2418 Broadway.  When that closes at 9:30pm, we'll head somewhere else mutually agreeable.

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Against Propaganda

Communications we read or see produce four kinds of changes in our beliefs:

  • Random – uncorrelated with much else of interest,
  • Info – more correlated with the world as it is, vs. as it might be,
  • Persuasion – more correlated with beliefs authors prefer us to have, and
  • Other – correlations with anything else of interest.

When choosing what to read (or see) how carefully, many of us prefer info to persuasion, and weakly dislike random and other changes. So we watch for signals indicating lots of info relative to persuasion. In contrast, readers who prefer persuasion over info seek signals indicating their favored mixture.

For example, consider contexts where people reaffirm their religious and patriotic allegiances, where coaches inspire teams or warriors inspire troops, or where "inspirational" speakers persuade folks to stick to their diets, try harder to succeed in their careers, or hold out for their romantic ideals. In such propaganda contexts, impressive charismatic leaders tend to speak in simple repetitive eloquent poetic vague emotional language, often with rambling structures, engaging stories, vivid colorful flashy emotional music and visual aids, and artistic impressive comforting communal surroundings.

In contrast, when possibly-hostile and expert critics are addressed by lawyers supporting clients, engineers presenting designs, accountants presenting financial accounts, or academics presenting analyses, styles are more "no-nonsense."  They avoid colorful flashy emotional visual aids and music, use precise concise technical and unemotional language, make structured and standardized arguments, explicitly summarize and address opposing views, make methods and premises explicit, and warn early of conclusions and structures.

These differing styles occur not just because differing communication contexts have differing style requirements, but also because authors try to credibly signal their intentions. Authors who want to be seen as minimizing the propaganda element of their communications avoid using flashy styles, eloquent language, or compelling stories, even when such things would make it easier for readers to assimilate the presented info. After all, readers who cannot easily see that deviating from the usual non-nonsense style here actually promotes info may think worse of them.  One must furthermore worry about being quoted out of context by hostile parties.

Continue reading "Against Propaganda" »

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Sunnyvale Meetup Saturday

Eliezer and I will both attend this bay area OB meetup:

Saturday January 24, 7-11pm
874 San Juan Dr., Sunnyvale, CA 94085.
Lotsa parking nearby on San Junipero.
Feel free to bring drinks/snacks, or not.

Thanks to Anna Salamon for hosting!

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Last Post Requests?

I’m strongly tempted to quit blogging for a while, to free up time for more ambitious projects. My two year anniversary is coming up in a few weeks.  If I quit then it would be nice to have some sense of completion.  Toward that end, are there any post topics you’d like to request?  Perhaps posts I once promised or at least suggested I might someday make?

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The Conversation So Far

(I paraphrase.)

After a year of Robin pestering co-blogger Eliezer "Can we talking about singularity on the blog now, can we?" and Eliezer saying "Not yet," Robin speaks up on the occasion of his IEEE Spectrum singularity article:

Robin: Hey Eliezer, I see you’ve been talking for years about an AI-singularity.  Have a look; I’ve analyzed the history of previous "singularities" (as Vinge defines the term) and can use that to forecast the timing, speedup, and transition inequalities of the next singularity.  I can also find a tech that looks pretty likely to appear within the predicted time-frame, and an economic analysis suggests it could plausibly deliver the forecasted speedup.  And this tech is a kind of AI! 

Eliezer:
  I really don’t have time to talk, but you are looking at untrustworthy surface analogies, not reliable deep causes.  My deep insight is that optimization processes are more powerful the smaller and better is their protected meta-level, and history is divided into epochs according to the arrival of new long-term optimization processes, and to a lesser extent their meta-level innovations, after each of which ordinary innovation rates speed up.  The two optimization processes so far were natural selection and cultured brains, and key meta-innovations were cells, sex, writing, and scientific thinking. I’m talking about a future singularity due to a transistor-based machine with no (and therefore the best) protected meta-level.  My deep insight suggests this would have an extremely large speedup and transition inequality. 

Robin:  This history of when innovation rates sped up by how much just doesn’t seem to support your claim that the strongest speedups are caused by and coincide with new optimization processes, and to a lesser extent protected meta-level innovations.  There is some correlation, but it seems weak.  And since you don’t argue for a timing for your postulated singularity, why can’t we think yours will happen after the singularity I outline? 

Eliezer:  Sorry, no time to talk.

To be continued. 

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Are Meta Views Outside Views?

An inside view focuses on internals of the case at hand, while an outside view compares this case to other similar cases.  The less you understand about something the harder it is to apply either an inside or an outside view.  So the simplest approach would be to just do the best you could with each view and then combine their results in some simple way. 

Can we do better?  Perhaps, if we know something about when inside views tend to do better or worse, compared to outside views.   For example, we should probably emphasize views that give more confident estimates, and de-emphasize views from those biased by self-interest.   But do we know anything about on what topics to prefer an inside or outside view?

It is not clear to me that we really do know much about this.  But whatever framework we use to make this judgment, it seems to me to count as a meta-view, a view about views.  Furthermore, while it is easy to imagine useful outside meta-views, which compare this view-choice situation to other related view-choice situations, it is much harder to imagine useful inside meta-views, where you go through some detailed calculation to decide which view to prefer. 

This suggests to me that most useful meta views are outside meta views.  If you are going to reject an outside view in favor of an inside view on the basis of some insight on when inside views work better, you will be relying on an outside metaview.   So it seems you can’t escape embracing some outside view, though you might embrace a meta outside view instead of a basic outside view.

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In Bias, Meta is Max

A recent Science review notes our worst bias is meta – being more aware of biases makes us more willing to assume that others’ biases, and not ours, are responsible for our disagreement:

Because people often do not recognize when personal biases and idiosyncratic interpretations have shaped their judgments and preferences, they often take for granted that others will share those judgments and preferences. When others do not, people’s faith in their own objectivity often prompts them to view those others as biased. Indeed, people show a broad and pervasive tendency to see (and even exaggerate) the impact of bias on others’ judgments while denying its influence on their own.

For example, people think that others’ policy opinions are biased by self-interest, that others’ social judgments are biased by an inclination to rely on dispositional (rather than situational) explanations for behavior, and that others’ perceptions of interpersonal conflicts are biased by their personal allegiances. At the same time, people are blind to each of these biases in their own judgments.

Continue reading "In Bias, Meta is Max" »

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Meetup in NYC Wed?

I’m speaking (privately) in NYC Thursday, and arrive Wednesday evening (staying on 54th St.).  If NYC folks are interested in meeting up at say 8pm, can anyone suggest a good location, perhaps flexible re the number who show?

Added 10June:  OK, the plan is to meet at Connolly’s (43 W. 54th St. 212-489-0271) from 8pm on.  I presume we’ll hang out at the bar at first.

Added 12June:  The meetup last night was lots of fun -thanks to all (~15) who came.

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