I just got a lovely gift of a song called "I'll Think of a Reason Later" by Lee Ann Womack. Maybe some of you already know it. Here is the chorus:
It may be my family's redneck nature
Rubbin' off, bringin' out unlady-like behavior
It sure ain't Christian to judge a stranger
But I don't like her
She may be an angel who spends all winter
Bringin' the homeless blankets and dinner
A regular Nobel Peace Prize winner
But I really hate her
I'll think of a reason later
Tasty.
[the following recounts an exceptionally powerful teaching technique employed by an economics professor of mine at university; teaching fact-checking and skepticism by salting it into the content of his delivery]
One of my favorite professors in college was a self-confessed liar.
I guess that statement requires a bit of explanation.
The topic of Corporate Finance/Capital Markets is, even within the world of the Dismal Science, a exceptionally dry and boring subject matter, encumbered by complex mathematic models and obscure economic theory.
What made Dr. K memorable was a gimmick he employed that began with his introduction at the beginning of his first class:
To me, Justin Timberlake sounds like a shockingly untalented guy with a lot of musical training. Why do I perceive him that way when millions of his fans do not? One explanation is that I have excellent taste in music while the people who buy his albums do not. … The other explanation is that I am mentally defective. … I see this situation every day … People e-mail … telling me that Dilbert sucks, despite the fact it’s in 2,000 newspapers … The e-mail I have NEVER received goes like this: “I do not enjoy Dilbert, but since many people do, I assume the problem is on my end. Something is wrong with me and I am just writing to let you know I am defective.” … Describe the last time you disagreed with a popular opinion, about anything, and concluded that the problem is with you?
Hat tip to Eric Crampton.
An old Bloom County Sunday cartoon has Cutter John in his wheelchair dressed as Santa, asking "And what would you like this year?" to Roland-Ann in his lap:
Truth. I’d like a little truth. Openness .. Forthrightness … Directness. For once, I’d just like a couple of those.
Childhood seems to be one long series of adult deceptions. Lies … Myths … Half-truths … Fibs. Yesterday I asked my father what a "libido" is. He said it’s a kid of guinea pig.
So I think it would be nice, this Christmas, to get just a little, simple, adult honesty for once. Yes. It really would.
Anyway … Thanks for listening, mister Santa Claus. Please give my best to Mrs Claus, all the elves, and give Rudolph a big kidss just for me. Good bye!"
By this point, John has his face in his hand, ashamed, and in the next panel says "I quit!"
This raises the obvious question: why don’t kids ask adults for more honesty, once they see that adults often lie?
In January I said:
Decision makers talk and act like they want more info, and prediction markets would provide such info. But deep down I think decision makers know they really don’t need most of the info they collect; they collect it to show they are sharp and up on the latest.
In today’s Dilbert, Dogbert advises the pointy-haired boss:
You need a dash-board application to track your key metrics. That way you’ll have more data to ignore when you make your decisions based on company politics.
Here is a (slightly shortened) joke from the book The Curious Incident of The Dog in the Night-Time:
There are three men on a train. One of them is an economist and one of them is a logician and one of them is a mathematician. And they have just crossed the border into Scotland and they see a brown cow standing in a field from the window of the train.
And the economist says, "Look, the cows in Scotland are brown."
And the logician says, "No. there are cows in Scotland of which one at least is brown."
And the mathematician says, "No. there is at least one cow in Scotland, of which one side appears to be brown."
On the 4/29/07 episode of The Simpsons there was a sign at Springfield Little League Park reading:
"Warning: Your child is not as good as you think he is."
For most parents, (although certainly not my wife and I because we underestimate our son’s greatness) this sign would help correct bias. So, should signs like this be posted occasionally?
"Reply from trillion year old beings: Won't happen; the obvious..."
"feministx: electrons are matter. Also, "energy" is really just a..."
"Robin Hanson's argument assumes the laws of thermodynamics are intractable...."
"Economic welfare cares not about giving people experiences but about
..."
"Just a question. If we could somehow substantiate ourselves as..."
"They could cheat on their spouse and while offering that..."
"Ok now, you kinda lost me somewhere around your trillion-year..."
"Sounds like an excellent argument for a Friendly singleton that..."
"But what if you reach the fundamental limits on efficiency?..."
"Tangential - I sometimes think that that earlier marriage might..."
"
