Comments for Overcoming Bias http://www.overcomingbias.com Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future. Sat, 11 Feb 2012 11:55:43 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1.3 Comment on Personality Is Overt by mjgeddes http://www.overcomingbias.com/2012/02/personality-is-overt.html#comment-712881 mjgeddes Sat, 11 Feb 2012 11:55:43 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=29045#comment-712881 Oops. It's actually the other way around to what I said above. You're quite right Douglas, sorry Stephen. You can indeed match up construal theory to what Robin is saying, but basically: overt=far covert=near (just switch my references to 'covert' and 'overt' in my above post). Oops. It’s actually the other way around to what I said above. You’re quite right Douglas, sorry Stephen.

You can indeed match up construal theory to what Robin is saying, but basically:

overt=far
covert=near

(just switch my references to ‘covert’ and ‘overt’ in my above post).

]]> Comment on Housing Envy by Stephen R Diamond http://www.overcomingbias.com/2012/02/housing-envy.html#comment-712553 Stephen R Diamond Sat, 11 Feb 2012 04:54:05 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=29048#comment-712553 <blockquote>Note that this level of envy could justify taxing house size relative to some other category of consumption where envy is weaker, if such categories could be identified.</blockquote> But what kind of economic argument would this justification comprise? I take it from a recent discussion that you would resist calling the excessive instigation of envy a case of <em>market failure</em> (to the extent it isn't compensated by benefits). What keeps the excessive instigation of envy from constituting a <em>potential </em>net market failure.

Note that this level of envy could justify taxing house size relative to some other category of consumption where envy is weaker, if such categories could be identified.

But what kind of economic argument would this justification comprise? I take it from a recent discussion that you would resist calling the excessive instigation of envy a case of market failure (to the extent it isn’t compensated by benefits). What keeps the excessive instigation of envy from constituting a potential net market failure.

]]> Comment on Personality Is Overt by mjgeddes http://www.overcomingbias.com/2012/02/personality-is-overt.html#comment-712488 mjgeddes Sat, 11 Feb 2012 03:59:45 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=29045#comment-712488 No, it's pretty clear that 'overt' is near. Covert is concerned with appearances/social reality/communication I(Gryffindor, Hufflepuff), so it's far. Overt is concerned with plotting and getting tasks done (Slytherin/Ravenclaw) so it's near. Just stick to 'Harry Potter' to work all this stuff out and you won't go wrong ;) No, it’s pretty clear that ‘overt’ is near.

Covert is concerned with appearances/social reality/communication I(Gryffindor, Hufflepuff), so it’s far.

Overt is concerned with plotting and getting tasks done (Slytherin/Ravenclaw) so it’s near.

Just stick to ‘Harry Potter’ to work all this stuff out and you won’t go wrong ;)

]]> Comment on Inequality Market Failure? by Gabriel Weil http://www.overcomingbias.com/2012/02/inequality-market-failure.html#comment-712138 Gabriel Weil Fri, 10 Feb 2012 22:28:59 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=29005#comment-712138 I would actually disagree with the point about the estate tax. The biggest risk that you want would want birth position to hedge against is precisely who your parents are. Sure, exactly what sperm and egg combination produces you and when that happens matters, but those are less significant risks than the identity of your parents. If your parents are wealthy enough to be affected by the estate tax, then you don't need birth position insurance. In my argument, there is no way for parents to protect children from birth position risk, only to make being born as their child a more or less desirable outcome. True birth position insurance would benefit all children who are borne under conditions below some chosen threshold, at the expense of those born into positions above the threshold. I would actually disagree with the point about the estate tax. The biggest risk that you want would want birth position to hedge against is precisely who your parents are. Sure, exactly what sperm and egg combination produces you and when that happens matters, but those are less significant risks than the identity of your parents. If your parents are wealthy enough to be affected by the estate tax, then you don’t need birth position insurance. In my argument, there is no way for parents to protect children from birth position risk, only to make being born as their child a more or less desirable outcome. True birth position insurance would benefit all children who are borne under conditions below some chosen threshold, at the expense of those born into positions above the threshold.

]]> Comment on Housing Envy by Stephen R. Diamond http://www.overcomingbias.com/2012/02/housing-envy.html#comment-712111 Stephen R. Diamond Fri, 10 Feb 2012 22:08:00 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=29048#comment-712111 If you pay to have a smaller neighboring house, it becomes a constant reminder of your willingness to pay that amount, thus reminding you of your envy to that degree. That subtracts from the utility of a smaller neighboring house. If you pay to have a smaller neighboring house, it becomes a constant reminder of your willingness to pay that amount, thus reminding you of your envy to that degree. That subtracts from the utility of a smaller neighboring house.

]]> Comment on Personality Is Overt by Stephen R. Diamond http://www.overcomingbias.com/2012/02/personality-is-overt.html#comment-712107 Stephen R. Diamond Fri, 10 Feb 2012 21:58:20 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=29045#comment-712107 The question is whether construal level theory implies this alignment. You wrote, "If the human mind is split to parts that manage overt appearances, and parts that manage covert strategies." Appearances are near and strategies are far (certainly): strategies are both more abstract and more future-oriented than appearances. The question is whether construal level theory implies this alignment. You wrote, “If the human mind is split to parts that manage overt appearances, and parts that manage covert strategies.”

Appearances are near and strategies are far (certainly): strategies are both more abstract and more future-oriented than appearances.

]]> Comment on Housing Envy by Michael Wengler http://www.overcomingbias.com/2012/02/housing-envy.html#comment-712068 Michael Wengler Fri, 10 Feb 2012 20:54:50 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=29048#comment-712068 <em>Note that this level of envy could justify taxing house size relative to some other category of consumption where envy is weaker, if such categories could be identified.</em> I highly recommend reading <strong>The Darwin Economy</strong> by Robert Frank. He discusses extensively the evidence for what he calls positional goods and makes coherent arguments about how these might be taxed to produce a high amount of revenue per utility lost to the taxed. The columbus data you cite seems averaged over all house sales? I would be very interested to see what it shows as a function of house size. Perhaps small houses are valued absolutely, large houses are valued relatively, and the "average" loses the information that once you are above the threshold for buying "status" homes that this is what you pay for. Its a bummer these papers you link to can't be seen by civilians! Note that this level of envy could justify taxing house size relative to some other category of consumption where envy is weaker, if such categories could be identified.

I highly recommend reading The Darwin Economy by Robert Frank. He discusses extensively the evidence for what he calls positional goods and makes coherent arguments about how these might be taxed to produce a high amount of revenue per utility lost to the taxed.

The columbus data you cite seems averaged over all house sales? I would be very interested to see what it shows as a function of house size. Perhaps small houses are valued absolutely, large houses are valued relatively, and the “average” loses the information that once you are above the threshold for buying “status” homes that this is what you pay for.

Its a bummer these papers you link to can’t be seen by civilians!

]]> Comment on Housing Envy by Seth http://www.overcomingbias.com/2012/02/housing-envy.html#comment-712057 Seth Fri, 10 Feb 2012 20:33:19 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=29048#comment-712057 People are willing to pay to shrink their neighbor's house? Or is it that people will pay a little more for a house next to smaller house? If the latter, I can understand that and I don't think it's envy. Rather marketability. It's easier to sell the slightly better stock. It's hard to sell the best. People are willing to pay to shrink their neighbor’s house? Or is it that people will pay a little more for a house next to smaller house?

If the latter, I can understand that and I don’t think it’s envy. Rather marketability. It’s easier to sell the slightly better stock. It’s hard to sell the best.

]]> Comment on Housing Envy by KPres http://www.overcomingbias.com/2012/02/housing-envy.html#comment-711934 KPres Fri, 10 Feb 2012 18:20:32 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=29048#comment-711934 A lot of "envy" is just friendly gamesmanship. Often I compete with my peers because we know that our competition can provide purpose and bring out the best in us, so long as it takes place within the boundaries of the friendship. The envy is real, but at the same time compartmentalized and controlled. Just a thought. A lot of “envy” is just friendly gamesmanship. Often I compete with my peers because we know that our competition can provide purpose and bring out the best in us, so long as it takes place within the boundaries of the friendship. The envy is real, but at the same time compartmentalized and controlled.

Just a thought.

]]> Comment on Housing Envy by Assorted links — Marginal Revolution http://www.overcomingbias.com/2012/02/housing-envy.html#comment-711933 Assorted links — Marginal Revolution Fri, 10 Feb 2012 18:16:11 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=29048#comment-711933 [...] 4. Do people care more about absolute than relative status? [...] [...] 4. Do people care more about absolute than relative status? [...]

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