In “Enhancing Our Truth Orientation,” Robin argues that Aumann’s theorem applies to moral claims. I’m very skeptical of this position, primarily because there does not seem to be a plausible way to translate moral positions into the kinds of probability judgments suitable for Bayesian reasoning.
What reason do we have to believe that moral positions can be understood as subjective probabilities? Is there anyone who genuinely believes that, say, deontology is true with a probability of .7, virtue ethics with a probability of .299, and utilitarianism with a probability of .001? Or that it’s 35% likely to be true that you can’t lie to the murderer at the door? (Kant’s infamous case.) Does it even make sense to say that? Is it at all coherent? What might it mean to utter the statement “there is a .35 probability of it being wrong to lie to the murderer at the door?”
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