Monthly Archives: July 2011

Classic Charities

The 1806 Russia depicted in War and Peace had three big ways to “help others”: medicine, school, and alms (= food, shelter, etc. for the weak, e.g., old, crippled, poor, etc.). From this, I suggested:

Modern liberal obsessions with such areas are not a local historical accident.

Seeking more data, I found a book on what foreigners saw in 1700s England, which also lists these same three as the main forms of charity (quotes below).

What about charity-related spending today?

  • US direct donations of $291 billion by organization type is 35% religion, 14% school, 8% medicine, 5% arts, and 9% “human service”, containing most local alms, and 5% “international affairs”, containing most foreign poverty assistance.
  • US non-profit revenue of $1800 billion breaks down to 51% medicine, 14% school, 2% arts, 1% religion, 7% “multi-purpose and other human services”
  • US government spending of $3,800 billion (41% of US GDP) breaks down to 16% military, 18% medicine, 16% pensions, 15% school, and 11% “welfare.”

As government spending is now 13 times direct donations, if voters treat any substantial fraction of that a substitute for private charity, then most “charity” today is channeled via government. Pensions plus welfare makes 27% of government spending apparently going to alms, or about 11% of GDP. Total US education spending is $972 billion, about 10% of GDP.

Bottom line: About 18% of US GDP goes to medicine, 11% to alms, and 10% for school. So we now spend huge sums  (~40% of GDP) on areas related to what were once the three main charities.

I’d guess that 1750 spending on alms, medicine, and school was far less than 40% of GDP.  This all raises two questions:

  1. Why such a consistent focus on the same three charity-related areas over such a long time? In general the simplest way to help folks is to give them cash. One needs other relevant factors to explain a desire to help in other ways. And to explain a consistent focus over many centuries, such factors must stay relevant over many centuries.
  2. Why did charity-like spending grow from a tiny to a huge fraction of GDP? Why are we today so much more eager for charity-like spending?

Those promised book quotes:

Continue reading "Classic Charities" »

GD Star Rating
loading...

Hail War And Peace

War And Peace is my favorite novel ever. In contrast to the modern style of appearing only to describe events and leaving interpretations to the reader, Tolstoy interprets openly and heavily. And oh what wonderfully insightful interpreting! He usually describe several levels, including what people say, what they think, and what they are doing without realizing. I see homo hypocritus played out in great detail. Here is a section on agency failures in charity:

[Count] Pierre … sent for all his stewards to the head office and .. told them that steps would be taken immediately to free his serfs- and that till then they were not to be overburdened with labor, women while nursing their babies were not to be sent to work, assistance was to be given to the serfs, punishments were to be admonitory and not corporal, and hospitals, asylums, and schools were to be established on all the estates. Some of the stewards … listened with alarm, supposing these words to mean that the young count was displeased with their management and embezzlement of money …

He discussed estate affairs every day with his chief steward. But he felt that this did not forward matters at all. … Pierre had none of the practical persistence that would have enabled him to attend to the business himself and so he disliked it and only tried to pretend to the steward that he was attending to it. The steward for his part tried to pretend to the count that he considered these consultations very valuable for the proprietor and troublesome to himself. …

The chief steward, who considered the young count’s attempts almost insane – unprofitable to himself, to the count, and to the serfs – made some concessions. Continuing to represent the liberation of the serfs as impracticable, he arranged for the erection of large buildings- schools, hospitals, and asylums- on all the estates before the master arrived. …

On all his estates Pierre saw with his own eyes brick buildings erected or in course of erection, all on one plan, for hospitals, schools, and almshouses, which were soon to be opened. Everywhere he saw the stewards’ accounts, according to which the serfs’ manorial labor had been diminished, and heard the touching thanks of deputations of serfs in their full-skirted blue coats.

What Pierre did not know was … that since the nursing mothers were no longer sent to work on his land, they did still harder work on their own land. He did not know that the priest who met him with the cross oppressed the peasants by his exactions, and that the pupils’ parents wept at having to let him take their children and secured their release by heavy payments. He did not know that the brick buildings, built to plan, were being built by serfs whose manorial labor was thus increased, though lessened on paper. He did not know that where the steward had shown him in the accounts that the serfs’ payments had been diminished by a third, their obligatory manorial work had been increased by a half. And so Pierre was delighted with his visit to his estates and quite recovered the philanthropic mood in which he had left Petersburg. …

The steward promised to do all in his power to carry out the count’s wishes, seeing clearly that not only would the count never be able to find out whether all measures had been taken, … but would probably never even inquire and would never know that the newly erected buildings were standing empty and that the serfs continued to give in money and work all that other people’s serfs gave – that is to say, all that could be got out of them. (more)

Note that even in such a different world (1806 Russia), the three classic “good deeds” were medicine, education, and poverty assistance. This suggests modern liberal obsessions with such areas are not a local historical accident.

GD Star Rating
loading...
Tagged as: , ,

Debating Yudkowsky

On Wednesday I debated my ex-co-blogger Eliezer Yudkowsky at a private Jane Street Capital event (crude audio here, from 4:45; better video here [as of July 14]).

I “won” in the sense of gaining more audience votes — the vote was 45-40 (him to me) before, and 32-33 after the debate. That makes me two for two, after my similar “win” over Bryan Caplan (42-10 before, 25-20 after). This probably says little about me, however, since contrarians usually “win” such debates.

Our topic was: Compared to the farming and industrial revolutions, intelligence explosion first-movers will quickly control a much larger fraction of their new world. He was pro, I was con. We also debated this subject here on Overcoming Bias from June to December 2008. Let me now try to summarize my current position.

The key issue is: how chunky and powerful are as-yet-undiscovered insights into the architecture of “thinking” in general (vs. on particular topics)? Assume there are many such insights, each requiring that brains be restructured to take advantage. (Ordinary humans couldn’t use them.) Also assume that the field of AI research reaches a key pivotal level of development. And at that point, imagine some AI research team discovers a powerful insight, and builds an AI with an architecture embodying it. Such an AI might then search for more such insights more efficiently than all other the AI research teams who share their results put together.

This new fast AI might then use its advantage to find another powerful insight, restructure itself to take advantage of it, and so on until it was fantastically good at thinking in general. (Or if the first insight were super-powerful, it might jump to this level in one step.) How good? So good that it could greatly out-compete the entire rest of the world at the key task of learning the vast ocean of specific knowledge and insights useful for functioning in the world. So good that even though it started out knowing almost nothing, after a few weeks it knows more than the entire rest of the world put together.

(Note that the advantages of silicon and self-modifiable code over biological brains do not count as relevant chunky architectural insights — they are available to all competing AI teams.)

In the debate, Eliezer gave six reasons to think very powerful brain architectural insights remain undiscovered:

  1. Human mind abilities have a strong common IQ factor.
  2. Humans show many specific mental failings in reasoning.
  3. Humans have completely dominated their chimp siblings.
  4. Chimps can’t function as “scientists” in human society.
  5. “Science” was invented, allowing progress in diverse fields.
  6. AGI researchers focus on architectures, share little content.

My responses: Continue reading "Debating Yudkowsky" »

GD Star Rating
loading...
Tagged as: , ,

Chalmers Reply #2

In April 2010 I commented on David Chalmers’ singularity paper:

The natural and common human obsession with how much [robot] values differ overall from ours distracts us from worrying effectively. … [Instead:]
1. Reduce the salience of the them-us distinction relative to other distinctions. …
2. Have them and us use the same (or at least similar) institutions to keep peace among themselves and ourselves as we use to keep peace between them and us.

I just wrote a 3000 word new comment on this paper, for a journal. Mostly I complain Chalmers didn’t say much beyond what we should have already known. But my conclusion is less meta:

The most robust and promising route to low cost and mutually beneficial mitigation of these [us vs. superintelligence] conflicts is strong legal enforcement of retirement and bequest contracts. Such contracts could let older generations directly save for their later years, and cheaply pay younger generations to preserve old loyalties. Simple consistent and broad-based enforcement of these and related contracts seem our best chance to entrench the enforcement of such contracts deep in legal practice. Our descendants should be reluctant to violate deeply entrenched practices of contract law for fear that violations would lead to further unraveling of contract practice, which threatens larger social orders built on contract enforcement.

As Chalmers notes in footnote 19, this approach is not guaranteed to work in all possible scenarios. Nevertheless, compare it to the ideal Chalmers favors:

AI systems such that we can prove they will always have certain benign values, and such that we can prove that any systems they will create will also have those values, and so on … represents a sort of ideal that we might aim for (p.35).

Compared to the strong and strict controls and regimentation required to even attempt to prove that values disliked by older generations could never arise in any later generations, enforcing contracts where older generations pay younger generations to preserve specific loyalties seems to me a far easier, safer and more workable approach, with many successful historical analogies on which to build.

GD Star Rating
loading...
Tagged as: , ,

Ignoring Small Chances

On September 9, 1713, so the story goes, Nicholas Bernoulli proposed the following problem in the theory of games of chance, after 1768 known as the St Petersburg paradox …:

Peter tosses a coin and continues to do so until it should land heads when it comes to the ground. He agrees to give Paul one ducat if he gets heads on the very first throw, two ducats if he gets it on the second, four if on the third, eight if on the fourth, and so on, so that with each additional throw the number of ducats he must pay is doubled.

Nicholas Bernoulli … suggested that more than five tosses of heads are [seen as] morally impossible [and so ignored]. This proposition is experimentally tested through the elicitation of subjects‘ willingness-to-pay for various truncated versions of the Petersburg gamble that differ in the maximum payoff. … All gambles that involved probability levels smaller than 1/16 and maximum payoffs greater than 16 Euro elicited the same distribution of valuations. … The payoffs were as described …. but in Euros rather than in ducats. … The more senior students seemed to have a higher willingness-to-pay. … Offers increase significantly with income. (more)

This isn’t plausibly explained by risk aversion, nor by a general neglect of possibilities with a <5% chance. I suspect this is more about analysis complexity, i.e., about limiting the number of possibilities we’ll consider at any one time. I also suspect this bodes ill for existential risk mitigation.

GD Star Rating
loading...
Tagged as: ,

Open Thread

This is our monthly place to discuss related topics that have not appeared in recent posts.

GD Star Rating
loading...
Tagged as: