Monthly Archives: June 2011

Who Watches Watchers?

James Surowiecki says U.S. voters should support a new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (C.F.P.B.) because consumers make finance mistakes:

Many Americans are ill informed about financial products. … You might think that businesses offering better products would have an incentive to make sure that potential customers were able to distinguish between ripoffs and good deals, but … there’s “a limit to how much explaining a creditor can do before losing the attention of its customers.” … Warren … talked to a number of banks about introducing a credit card with a higher up-front interest rate but lower penalty fees—a cost-effective arrangement for many people. But … there was no way to convince consumers that it was a good deal. In a world where marketing is all about the lowest teaser A.P.R., … you end up with a race to the bottom. …

The C.F.P.B. hopes to change this, largely by insuring that consumers will be told the true terms of a deal, in a simple and clear fashion. … Some bankers … maintain that the C.F.P.B. will go too far and end up strangling financial innovation. But, over the past century or so, new regulatory initiatives have inevitably been greeted with predictions of doom from the very businesses they eventually helped. … History suggests that business doesn’t always know what’s good for it. (more)

Let’s see, banks offer bad products, because many consumers are too lazy to notice and choose good products. So voters should empower regulators to make rules banning bad products, or at least overly hidden products. But isn’t it also possible that regulators might offer bad regulations, because voters are too lazy to notice and choose politicians who support good regulations? Why would voters pay more attention to choosing regulators than banking customers pay in choosing banks? And if voters pay less attention, how does adding this extra layer of choice improve the overall situation?

You might argue that when choosing their votes, ignorant voters can rely on interest groups and better informed elites, who share their interests. But banking customers could also rely on interest groups and informed elites in deciding where to bank. Yes, banks often try to create and buy off apparently independent groups and elites that pretend to offer neutral informed advice, to fool uninformed customers into buying bad products. But the same thing can happen at the political level – how can voters know which organized groups and elites are actually informed and share their interests?

It would seem that any process that ignorant voters could use to decide who to trust on regulations could also be used by ignorant consumers to decide which banks to patronize. Since banking consumers have far stronger incentives to choose well on banks than voters have to choose well on politicians, how can it help to replace a possibly quite severe ignorant banking consumer problem with an even more severe ignorant voter problem?

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The Rich Have More Kids

Bryan Caplan finds that while more education (and being born later) predicts fewer kids, controlling for those factors (and age), more income predicts more kids. I don’t recall doing so, but Bryan says I predicted this result with some confidence years ago, but that he was skeptical at the time. Here are Bryan’s results predicting number of kids for men:

CaplanKids1

and for women:
CaplanKids2

Note the year effect is about the same for men and women, but the education effect is twice as big for women, while the income effect is twice as big for men. (All effects are highly significant.) Bryan concludes:

If you’re prone to futurist speculation, trying re-imagining Idiocracy.  The twist: in the real world, the most fertile people aren’t those with low IQ; they’re people who counter-stereotypically combine low education with high income.  Plumbers shall inherit the earth!

Bryan would be right if humans continued to dominate the Earth via ordinary reproduction. However, if (robot) emulations instead dominate, the question is whether the sorts of attitudes that tend to make people want to make more kids also tend to make them want to make more emulation copies. I predict surveys would find a positive correlation in these attitudes. At least I predict this conditional on respondents being induced to accept the emulation scenario as real, which is the frame of mind people would be in if emulations became feasible. Hence I predict while emulations would select heavily from our most productive folks, who tend to be well educated, emulations will tend to select from the richer but less educated part of this population. Really good plumber emulations shall inherit the Earth.

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Who Wants Accuracy?

A well-connected reporter (who I promised I’d keep anonymous) just told me that a major Washington media organization started a project studying major media pundits, and a big part of this project was assessing individual pundit forecast track records. After several months of several folks working on the project, it was killed, supposedly because management decided readers don’t care as much about pundit accuracy as they’d previous thought.

Of course that need not have been their real reason – perhaps some folks didn’t like the ratings it was giving to their favorite pundits. Or perhaps it died for any of a hundred random reasons projects are killed. Even so, I found this anecdote interesting.

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Seeking Alien Trash

I was interviewed by Seth Shostak (minutes 15:45 to 23:00 of this show) on possible observational consequences of my game theory model of interstellar colonization. (Previous posts on this here, here, here.)

The bottom line is that even if an alien colonization wave once passed this way, our astronomical theory and observation abilities are probably still just too weak to see the telltale signs of such a wave.

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Space vs. Time Allies

Consider two possible civilizations, stretched either across time or space:

  • Time: A mere hundred thousand people live sustainably for a billion generations before finally going extinct.
  • Space: A trillion people spread across a thousand planets live for only a hundred generations, then go extinct.

Even though both civilizations support the same total number of lives, most observers probably find the time-stretched civilization more admirable and morally worthy. (more)

Our distant ancestors struggled against nature and other species, but competed most directly for mates and resources with others in their species, especially others in the same generation. More distant generations, like grandparents or grandkids, tended more to be allies in their efforts to promote their genes and culture. Because of this, Katja and I suggested, humans evolved intuitions that see time-stretched civilizations as more full of comforting allies, and hence more worthy, than space-stretched civilizations.

Modern economies, however, differ in many important ways from the forager bands where these intuitions evolved. So let us compare the relative promise of time-stretched versus space-stretched modern economies with similar total numbers of people.

  • Scale Economies – Spatially large civilizations can specialize more in the production of goods and services, and take advantages of economies of scale, to get more of everything. Temporally large civilizations, in contrast, can only take advantage of scale economies for extremely durable goods like music. This issue favors spatial stretching.
  • Dependence Fragility – The more that the parts of a civilization depend on one another, the more that damage to one part can put the whole at risk. In a time stretched civilization a very bad outcome for any one generation risks the destruction of all future generations. It is a long chain of dependence that is only as strong as its weakest link. In contrast, a space stretched civilization allows for more redundant and parallel dependence paths. It can be more like a net that holds even when many of its strands are broken. This issue favors spatial stretching.
  • Innovation – A finite speed of light imposes delays on how fast innovations developed in one part of a spatially separated civilization can be used elsewhere.  [Added 8a: parallel innovation attempts also make info delays.] The more that a civilization is time-stretched, as opposed to space-stretched, the smaller are such delays. Our civilization is now compact enough that such delays are only a minor issue. This will also cease to be an issue when innovation has ended, i.e., when we have basically discovered all that is worth knowing. This issue favors time-stretching, but only during a (perhaps short) innovation era and only for very spatially stretched civilizations.

Overall, for similar numbers of total people, modestly spatially-stretched civilizations seem more promising. Thus in contrast to our evolved intuition that temporal associates are our allies while spatial associates are our rivals, spatial associates seem to actually be more useful, and hence are more naturally our allies. Beware relying on ancient evolved intuitions.

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Is Time Us, Space Them?

(This post co-authored by Robin Hanson and Katja Grace.)

In the Battlestar Galactica TV series, religious rituals often repeated the phrase, “All this has happened before, and all this will happen again.” It was apparently comforting to imagine being part of a grand cycle of time. It seems less comforting to say “Similar conflicts happen out there now in distant galaxies.” Why?

Consider two possible civilizations, stretched either across time or space:

  • Time: A mere hundred thousand people live sustainably for a billion generations before finally going extinct.
  • Space: A trillion people spread across a thousand planets live for only a hundred generations, then go extinct.

Even though both civilizations support the same total number of lives, most observers probably find the time-stretched civilization more admirable and morally worthy. It is “sustainable,” and in “harmony” with its environment. The space-stretched civilization, in contrast, seems “aggressively” expanding and risks being an obese “repugnant conclusion” scenario. Why?

Finally, consider that people who think they are smart are often jealous to hear a contemporary described as “very smart,” but are much happier to praise the genius of a Newton, Einstein, etc. We are far less jealous of richer descendants than of richer contemporaries. And there is far more sibling rivalry than rivalry with grandparents or grandkids. Why?

There seems an obvious evolutionary reason – sibling rivalry makes a lot more evolutionary sense. We compete genetically with siblings and contemporaries far more than with grandparents or grandkids. It seems that humans naturally evolved to see their distant descendants and ancestors as allies, while seeing their contemporaries more as competitors. So a time-stretched world seems choc-full of allies, while a space-stretched one seems instead full of potential rivals, making the first world seem far more comforting.

Having identified a common human instinct about what to admire, and a plausible evolutionary origin for it, we now face the hard question: do we embrace this instinct as revealing a deep moral truth, or do we reject it as a morally irrelevant accident of our origins? The two of us (Robin and Katja) are inclined more to reject it, but your mileage may vary.

(This is cross-posted at Meteuphoric.)

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First Cryonics Hour

Me two years ago:

I hereby offer to talk for one hour on any subject to anyone who can show me they’ve newly signed up for cryonics. You can record the conversation, publish it, and can sell your time to someone else.

Stuart Armstrong has signed up for cryonics, and then redeemed my offer. Congrats Stuart! We talked for an hour, and he recorded the conversation. If he does something with that recording, I’ll post a link here.

Any other takers?

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Promises Signal

Promises can both 1) help others predict and rely on our future behavior, and 2) signal our current feelings to others. The signaling function seems to dominate:

People who had the most positive relationship feelings and who were most motivated to be responsive to the partner’s needs made bigger promises than did other people but were not any better at keeping them. Instead, promisers’ self-regulation skills, such as trait conscientiousness, predicted the extent to which promises were kept or broken. … Participants who were [caused to] focused on their feelings for their partner promised more, whereas participants who generated a plan of self-regulation followed through more on their promises. …

When people make promises to address a point of contention with their partner, they seem to get swept up in what they want to do for their partner. A promise situation might appear as an opportunity to be responsive to a partner’s needs and demonstrate the loving feelings they experience for the other person, and it is these feelings they are thinking of when they make promises. … If promised behaviors can be completed immediately after promising rather than be sustained over a longer period of time, then the link between positive relationship feelings and extent of followthrough reemerges. (more)

If relationship promises mainly function to signal our current feelings, that makes it more plausible that paying and pushing for medicine for our associates serves a similar function of showing that we care. We humans apparently do relatively little checking later of whether promises were kept, or if medicine helped.

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Beware Big Bad Novelties

A central issue of this blog is: when exactly is it how important to emphasize truth, relative to other belief functions? New data suggest that truth is more important in bad times than in good, and when problems are big rather than small. Specifically, rose-colored marriage glasses help in good times, but hurt in bad times:

Individuals in new marriages were interviewed separately about their ongoing stressful experiences, and their own appraisals of those experiences were compared with those of the interviewers. … Spouses’ tendencies to form positively biased appraisals of their stressful experiences predicted fewer depressive symptoms over the subsequent 4 years among individuals judged to be facing relatively mild experiences but more depressive symptoms among individuals judged to be facing relatively severe experiences. … These effects were mediated by changes in those experiences, such that the interaction between the tendency to form positively biased appraisals of stressful experiences and the objectively rated severity of initial levels of those experiences directly predicted changes in those experiences, which in turn accounted for changes in depressive symptoms. (more)

Truth should also be especially important for situations that are novel relative to our evolved intuitions. The more our current situation differs from situations where our ancestors evolved (genetically or culturally) their intuitions about when to be truth-oriented, the more we risk by following such intuitions. And this seems especially likely for “futuristic” issues, with few genetic or cultural precedents.

Put them together and it is especially important for humanity to be truth-oriented regarding big bad evolutionarily-novel problems. Beware rose-colored glasses when turning a new corner to the future.

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Punish Sleep-Rape

Sexsomnia is simply a variant of sleepwalking, which affects 1 to 2% of adults. … The woman awoke to discover that her underwear had been removed and a glassy-eyed Luedecke was trying to rape her. She pushed him off, ran to the washroom, and returned to find him standing there bewildered. Luedeke, who had an established history of sleepwalking behaviors, was acquitted after [a] psychiatrist … testified … [that he] was in a dissociative state when the incident occurred and therefore he was not consciously aware of his actions. (more)

Should we punish ordinary rape severely yet entirely forgive sleep-rape? More generally, should we punish harms chosen by an unconscious mind much less severely than harms chosen by a conscious mind? I can see two arguments, but both fail I think.

The first argument says we should punish “intentional” harms more. Assume that law tries to encourage people to adopt efficient levels of care. Then note that purposely planning and carefully directing actions to create harm seems quite clearly far below an efficient level of care to prevent harm. Finally, conclude that it makes sense to punish planned harms more severely than harms which might more plausibly be accidental.

To conclude from this that unconscious acts should be forgiven, however, one must presume that unconscious mind harms are unplanned or are accidental side effects of other plans. Yet almost all conscious plans are first made unconsciously. So why should we presume unconscious acts are never planned?

The second argument divides a human mind into conscious and unconscious parts, and then complains that it is unfair to punish the conscious part for acts of the unconscious part, over which it might have had no control. Consider, however, an analogy with a married couple. When we punish a married person who has committed a crime, their spouse is usually punished as well. Fine and jail that take away resources from a criminal also take away resources from their spouse.

We are mostly ok with punishing spouses along with criminals. People choose their marriage partners, and have many opportunities to monitor and encourage good behavior from spouses. So punishing spouses gives them incentives to monitor and encourage well. But conscious minds also have opportunities to monitor and encourage associated unconscious minds. In fact, there are probably more such opportunities with a single person’s head than within a married couple. This suggests that we should thus punish conscious minds for associated unconscious actions at least as much as we effectively punish criminal spouses.

I wonder how our eagerness to excuse unconscious rule violations is related to our more general homo hypocritus eagerness to reserve possible excuses for our and allies’ future rule violations.

Added 11:30a: Like drunks, sleepwalkers seem somewhat incapacitated, so perhaps they should be excused from crimes to a similar degree as drunks. More data:

A sleepwalking adult usually has eyes wide open, although they may have a glassy or dazed appearance.  While they may move around somewhat clumsily, their arms are not outstretched. … Sleepwalking adults have been known to rearrange furniture, talk on the phone, email, eat, clean house, play a musical instrument, and many other routine tasks.  Sometimes they will perform rather bizarre actions, like urinating in a trashcan or removing all the knick-knacks from living room shelves and lining them up around the bathroom sink. … sleep walking adults have been known to get in the car and drive, sometimes for long distances.  Oftentimes these road trips have resulted in serious auto accidents.  There are many stories on record of sleepwalkers falling from second story windows or roofs, seriously injuring themselves, or even dying from the fall. … In some rare instances, somnabulists have walked out into the middle of a busy street, or stepped in front of an oncoming train … [or] committed murder and other serious crimes. (more)

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