Monthly Archives: May 2011

Big Firms Block Gains

To run an airline, you need not only pilots, airplanes, and fuel, you also need landing rights at airports matching your planned routes and times. Today airlines must buy these rights one at a time via trades, and so risk ending up with mismatched slots that they cannot use.

Thirty years ago economists designed and tested package auctions to overcome this problem. In such auctions people can bid for the package of landing slots desired, and be assured of getting either all or none of the items in their desired package. Lab experiments have documented their efficiency advantages.

At a conference yesterday, someone said that the big airlines have consistently blocked attempts to field such auctions. The reason: because they buy more total slots, big airlines can more easily put together the packages they need. Big airlines oppose innovations that would make it easier for small airlines to compete with them.

This seems similar to how last year big movie studios got Congress to change laws to block the introduction of movie futures. Such futures would make it easier for small movie studios to get funding and to convince viewers that they had a product worth seeing.

Better economic institutions help people to better coordinate. But big firms suffer this problem less, because they can more easily coordinate in the absense of such institutions. Even in the US today, big firms (often with the assistance of law and government) block a great deal of institutional innovation, in order to retain this advantage.

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Philosophy of Hypocrisy

Apparently some philosophers have developed philosophies of hypocrisy, to justify their not following the moral rules they advocate for others. They tried to keep quiet about it:

[Famous philosopher of ethics Henry] Sidgwick was the son of an Anglican clergeyman. Along with many eminent Victorians he could not accept revealed religion. Unlike most of them Sidgwick acted on this doubts and in 1869 resigned from his Fellowship at Trinity College, Cambridge, which required Fellows to subscribe to the Thirty-nine Articles of Anglican doctrine. … Later Sidgwick became a professor and resumed his Fellowship. …

All of Sidgwick’s close friends were male, most of them gay or bisexual for much of their live.  … Commenting on the friends he had made already, ‘Some are women to me, and to some I am a woman.’ … Sidgwick was celebrated in his lifetime for his integrity, but that did not prevent him engaging in Victorian hypocrisy where sexual desire – in himself or his friends – was concerned. Instead his reputation for honesty made the practice of deception easier for him. …

He had long argued the necessity for an ‘esoteric morality’ – a code of conduct that would sacntion the practice of secrecy and deception for strictly ethical reasons. When, towards the end of The Methods of Ethics, he discusses the rules of ordinary morality, he is clear that these rules must be adhered to faithfully by ordinary people. But Utilitarian morality might give a special freedom from ordinary rules to special kinds of people:

on Utilitarian principles, it may be right to do, and privately to recommend, under certain circumstances, what it would not be right to advocate openly; it may be right to teach openly to one set of persons what it would be wrong to teach to others; it may be conceivably right to do, if it can be done with comparative secrecy, what it would be wrong to do in the face of the world; and even, if perfect secrecy can be reasonably expected, what it would be wrong to recommend by private advice or example. … Thus the Utilitarian conclusion, carefully stated, would seem to be this; that the opinion that secrecy may render an action right which would not otherwise be so should itself be kept comparatively secret; and similarly it seems expedient that the doctrine that esoteric morality is expedient should itself be kept esoteric.

(pp.22,57,58, John Gray, The Immortalization Commission, 2011)

The homo hypocritus hypothesis suggests that people will often find themselves having strong intuitions that it is moral for them to quietly evade the usual rules, while still advocating such rules for others.  When could such intuitions offer strong support for the claim that such hypocrisy is in fact moral?

Added 2a: The issue here isn’t whether lies might ever be moral, such as with the proverbial lie to save Jews from the Nazis.  The issue here is examples such that of Sidgwick’s socially-convenient lies on sex and religion, which gained him social support and prestige. What fraction of moral philosophers privately support that type of hypocrisy? How could we know?

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Ems Freshly Trained?

In the recent (good) movie Star Trek, the heros spend several years training in the Star Fleet academy, and then spend a few days on their first real mission, which turns out to be an excellent learning experience. Should there be a sequel to this movie, the heroes would seem to start out especially well-positioned compared to most Star Fleet officers. In fact, if it were possible, Star Fleet might be tempted to fill much of their fleet with copies of these few heroes.

In a world of ems, this might well be the typical situation. To create ems trained for a new job, thousands of copies might each go through a long training period, including book learning, life-like problems, and fast-track real experience. Millions of work copies might then be made of the one copy that did best in the training competition. That copy might have experienced ten years of training (perhaps crammed into just one month of real time), get a nice long restful vacation, and then be asked to do a only one month of hard labor on useful tasks. While subjectively that one month of hard useful work would have been only a small fraction of each em’s overall pretty pleasant life, and so relatively easy to tolerate, in fact in this scenario most of the em months experienced could be of this sort of hard (but still live-worth-living) labor.

“O brave new world! That has such people in it!”

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Super-Watch Dilemna

There are (at least) two ways to implement a (Star Trek style) transporter:

  1. A space-time wormhole takes you “directly” from here to there, or
  2. We scan you, send the info, make a new copy at the other end, and destroy the original.

Some people care greatly about transporter type; they’d pay to use type #1, but pay greatly to avoid using type #2.  But regardless of the morality of a type #2 transporter, I’m pretty confident that if cheap type #2 transporters were available, but not type #1, many people would use them often, and prefer to think of them as benign, i.e., as if they were type #1.  Humans are pretty flexible about their morality when large economics gains are on offer.

A similar relation applies to two types of super-watches.  Super-watches have one button.  When you are wearing a super-watch, and push it’s button, you turn it on.  Soon after, a person appears next you who looks and thinks just like you and who shares all your memories.  This person is free to walk away, as are you.  The second time you push the super-watch button, it turns off.  And you dissapear.  The second button push is also triggered automatically a given duration after the first push, or if you are about to be harmed by something.  Super-watches with longer durations cost more.

Here are the two ways to make super-watches:

  1. Time Machine + Memory Wipe: The second time you push the button you enter a time machine that brings you back to soon after the moment you first pushed the button,  displaced by a few feet.  It also erases all memories you might have acquired since the first time you pushed the button.  And no, you can’t bring anything else with you in the time machine.
  2. Limited Time Copier:  When you turn on the watch it makes an exact copy of you and puts that copy a few feet away.  When you turn the watch off, or it automatically turns off, you are destroyed.

Now these two ways to implement super-watches produce pretty much the same set of experiences and observable features.  So either you do not care much about  how super-watches are made, or you care a lot about things no one experiences or sees.  As with transporters, I’m pretty confident that if type #2 super-watches were much cheaper than type #1, and offered great economic gains, many more people would use them, and find a way to frame them so they didn’t seem so bad.

Most people don’t see cruelty or morality problems with using time machines, and most people are also pretty comfortable with taking a drug that erases their recent memories.  Many people even like the idea of getting so drunk at a party that they won’t remember what they did the next day.  Yet some people say that while you aren’t obligated to create people, if you do create people you are obligated to give them a good life.  So creating a copy who might only live for a day or a year, and then be destroyed, would be mean, cruel and immoral.  But holding all these views together requires that you care very much about how super-watches are implemented.  Do you?

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Min Em Wage Enslaves?

Paul Krugman in ’06:

Serfdom in Russia wasn’t an institution that dated back to the Dark Ages. Instead, it was mainly a 16th-century creation, contemporaneous with the beginning of the great Russian expansion into the steppes. Why? … There’s no point in enslaving … a man unless the wage you would have to pay him if he was free is substantially above the cost of feeding, housing, and clothing him. … Indeed, by 1300 – with Europe very much a Malthusian society – serfdom had withered away from lack of interest.

But now suppose that for some reason land becomes abundant, and labor scarce. Then competition among landowners will tend to push up wages of free workers, and the ruling class will try, if it can, to pin peasants down and prevent them from bargaining for a higher standard of living. In Russia, it was all about gunpowder: suddenly steppe nomads were no longer so formidable, and the rich lands of the Ukraine were open for settlement. (more; HT Mark Thoma via TGGP)

Two aspects of a future em scenario especially bother people:

  1. The em robots might be enslaved.
  2. They might get near subsistence wages.

Many propose regulations to address #2, such as minimum wages or limits on em reproduction. But the case of Russian serfdom contains a warning: above-cost em wages will increase the temptation to enslave ems. If ems can be created for $10 a year but market wages are $100 a year, many will be tempted to create hidden em slaves to do their work. Ordinary ems might be copied against their will into secret computers and then tortured to work.

Short of continually inspecting every physical object that might house a computer, it might be very hard to detect such hidden slavery. A far more robust solution is to just let wages fall to near subsistence, where the temptation to enslave will be greatly reduced.

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Open Thread

This is our monthly place to discuss relevant topics that have not appeared in recent posts.

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