Monthly Archives: September 2010

Sample Odds

Chances of some future events, from Intrade.com:

70-71% Republicans win US House in 11/2010
42-47% California legalizes marijuana in 11/2010
6-16% California credit default by 2011
10-20% US overt strike on N. Korea by 4/2011
24% US or Israel overt strike on Iran by 2012
10-19% US Sup. Court bans med. mandate by 2012
16-18% Palin is Republican nominee in 2012
11-30% Japan says it has nuke by 2013
45-48% US Cap & Trade system by 2013
12-14% China war act on Taiwan by 2013
15-38% Higgs Boson seen by 2014

If you think any of the above in error, please do go get paid to correct the error.

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Green Is Far, Mostly Pink

I’m teaching environmental econ again for the first time in six years, and reviewing some standard texts two things stand out:

  1. Green Is Mostly Pink – Weighted by public or private efforts, most environmental policies are focused on limiting the harm some “pink” humans do to others via intermediaries of air, water, food, light, or sound. Whether that harm passes through green stuff is incidental to such policies. Much of the rest focuses on vague concerns that current human ways are not “sustainable.” What little concern there is about green stuff out there is mostly to ensure humans have nice green places to visit when they want, and that humans avoid guilt for stuff that happens out there due to their intervention. Actually concern for the welfare of green stuff from its own point of view is pretty minimal.
  2. Green Is Far – At first, I found it hard to see what the various “environmental” topics have in common. Air purity, food locality, future human population, animal experiments, oil & mineral depletion, energy efficiency, sea levels, urban sprawl, landfills, consumerism, – what unites such diverse topics? And then it hit me: they are mostly rather “far“. That is, “environmental” concerns tend to be at unusually large distances in space, time, and social relation from ordinary folks and concerns. The common theme seems to be how we here now relate to much larger contexts, and the oddities of far-mode thinking go a long way to explain odd enviro thoughts.  Cosmology would be super-green, if folks thought we had a non-trivial relation to non-Earth life.
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Old Are Lazy, But Fit

Many are concerned about how rich nation workers can pay for the rising costs of public pensions and other elderly benefits.  A graph from the latest Science clarifies.  While the ratio of folks over 65 to younger adults (OADR) will almost double in 45 years, the ratio of disabled to healthy adults (ADDR) will hardly change at all.  The ratio of folks with fifteen years left to live to younger adults will increase ~42%.

oldfolks

  • OADR, … people aged 65 or older, divided by … people of working age, 15 or 20 to 64. …
  • POADR, … people in age groups with life expectancies of 15 or fewer years, divided … people at least 20 years old in age groups with life expectancies greater than 15 years. …
  • ADDR, … adults at least 20 years old with disabilities, divided by … adults at least 20 years without them. (more)

There is no basic economic problem; we have plenty of capable workers. We instead have a political problem – old folks feeling entitled to more leisure at the expense of their juniors.  So just how much will rich nations be willing to tax their workers to pay for “promises” their elderly made to themselves long ago?

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Stranger Than Fiction

Even Hollywood would pause before trying to sell this scenario. Imagine:

Over twenty years ago someone invented a cheap car gadget that would cut the 30,000 annual US car crash deaths by 75%, and with government help proved it in a randomized experiment fifteen years ago. The car industry was a tight cartel, however, explicitly encouraged by the government and exempted from anti-trust laws, and this cartel didn’t see much profit in adopting the no-more-crash-death innovation. Although the nation just passed a huge car industry reform bill, after a fierce national debate, this subject never came up.

Not very believable, is it. But, turns out, an equivalent scenario has actually played out in medicine. There are 30,000 annual US deaths from blood catheter infections, but the US med equipment industry is a tight government-encouraged cartel, explicitly exempted from anti-trust laws, and it doesn’t see much profit in adopting a cheap innovation proven fifteen years ago to cut infections by 75%:

According to some studies, the rate of bloodstream infections is three times higher with needle-less systems than with their needle-based counterparts. … Shaw’s innovation added only a few pennies to the cost of production. And it seemed to be remarkably effective: A 2007 clinical study funded by Shaw’s company and conducted by the independent SGS Laboratories found the device prevented germs from being transferred to catheters nearly 100 percent of the time. … Shaw had just invented the first retractable syringe, a fact that drew the attention of public health officials. In 1993, the National Institutes of Health gave him a $600,000 grant to shrink it down to the size of an ordinary hypodermic. …

Large companies used their clout to squeeze hospitals on prices. To keep costs in check, in the 1970s many medical facilities began banding together to form group purchasing organizations, or GPOs. … In 1986 Congress passed a bill exempting GPOs from the anti-kickback provisions embedded in Medicare law. This meant that instead of collecting membership dues, GPOs could collect “fees”—in other industries they might be called kickbacks or bribes—from suppliers in the form of a share of sales revenue. … GPOs’ revenues were now tied to the profits of the suppliers they were supposed to be pressing for lower prices. … In 1996, when the Justice Department and the Federal Trade Commission overhauled antitrust rules and granted the organizations protection from antitrust actions. …

Within a few years, five GPOs controlled purchasing for 90 percent of the nation’s hospitals, … Shaw’s retractable syringe hit just as these trends were converging. In fact, the year his product came onto the market, three of the nation’s largest GPOs merged to form a company called Premier, which managed buying for 1,700 hospitals, or about a third of all hospitals in the United States. … Over the next two years, [Becton Dickinson] landed similar deals with all but one major GPO. As a result, almost everywhere Shaw turned, he found hospital doors were closed to him. …

There was talk of legislation to rein the GPOs in. Spooked by this threat, in 2002, the industry introduced a voluntary code of conduct … When it comes to core business practices, [this code] is vague. …

GPOs maintain that by pooling hospitals’ buying power and getting big medical suppliers to submit to competitive bidding, they are able to negotiate better deals and save hospitals billions of dollars. … But the little information that is available suggests that they may actually drive up the price of supplies. A 2002 pilot study by the Government Accountability Office found, for instance, that hospitals that went through GPOs paid more for safety needles and most models of pacemakers. … MEMdata, a Texas-based company that helps hospitals process their bids for new equipment and captures the quotes in a database. … On average, [MEMdata founder] Yancy says, the GPOs’ prices are 22 percent higher than the ones that hospitals can get on their own. (more; HT Kevin Burke)

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Meaning of Meaning of Life

Rewatching Monty Python’s Meaning of Life led me to wonder: what exactly do most people mean by “the meaning of life?” Now first, it seems to me people mainly want to know the meaning of their life; they consider life in general mostly for hints on that. So consider some sample answers to “what is the meaning of my life?”

  1. God has a plan for my life, so if I follow it my life has meaning.
  2. I am King George’s personal assistant; my life is to serve him.
  3. I am the custodian of this forrest, and will protect and nurture it.
  4. My children are my life; all I want is for them to thrive.
  5. I am a native american, and fight to regain what has been taken from us.
  6. In the historical battle between tyrants and freedom-lovers, I fight for freedom.
  7. I do scientific research, to push back our frontiers of knowledge.
  8. I am a good musician and love music.

It seems what people want is a satisfying story about their place in the universe. Since characters are the most important elements of a story, the main “place” that matters to people is their social place – who they relate to and how. People feel they understand their place when they have a story saying how they can relate well to important social entities.

Central to any social relation is whether the related person supports or opposes you in your conflicts. In fact, it seems enough to give your life meaning to just know who are your main natural allies and enemies among the important actors around, and what you can do to keep your allies supporting you, to give you high enough status.

For example, if there is a great powerful God, it seems enough to know what he wants you to do to keep him on your side. If you are a lowly servant but have the King for an ally, little else matters but pleasing him. (Unless you had higher status ambitions.)  If you have committed yourself to certain strong relations, like a spouse or kids, then it may be enough to know how to keep them on your side. If your relations shift more often, you might instead focus on general features of your natural allies, such as gender, personality, ethnicity, or some grand shared far value. For example, knowing you are good at and love music may ensure the support of music lovers, “your people,” wherever you go.

People think their life has less meaning when enough aspects of it are determined by “impersonal” forces that refuse to take social sides.  For example, a death caused by an enemy’s plan, or an allies failure to help, or by the dead person’s trying to help his allies, has far more meaning that a death caused by simple physics.

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Tyler On A Roll

Five thought-provoking posts in six days:

What Is Management About: “Business is much more about being organized and managing people than it is about ideas. Past a certain scale, ideas don’t seem to matter much … Much of the time spent discussing `ideas’ in a business context is actually time spent slowly maneuvering large groups of managers into a compatible mind-space so that they can work together effectively.” (more)

Why Little Airline Plain Talk: Half of [employees] dislike or sometimes even despise their customers and that their natural speech patterns, given their true feelings, would come across negatively. … They face lots of customers, with varying and often unreasonable expectations, and they have few resources to buy them off with. (more)

Most Story Protagonists Kidless: “At least 50 percent of the great literary characters exit the book without having reproduced.” … The decline of the heroic ideal in literature, and the decline of the journey of adventure, seem to be stronger forces in predicting fictional family size. (more)

Why Corporate BS Talk: Since it is hard to oppose fluffy generalities in any very specific way, a common strategy is to stack everyone’s opinion or points into an incoherent whole. Disagreement is then less likely to become a focal point within the corporation and warring coalitions are less likely to form. … Rule of thumb: when you see the demoralizing, start with the premise that it is being done for morale. (more)

Happiness As Bad Signal: “Happiness” to me sounds boring, as if the person has a limited imagination when it comes to wants and an inability to be frustrated by the difficulty of creating new peak experiences. … Viewed as a signaling problem, “happiness” fails when it comes to credibly demonstrating the possession of some extreme quality or another. The busier people are, and the higher wages are, the more important it should be to signal extreme qualities to command the attention of interesting others. (more)

Don’t stop now Tyler!

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Profiling Fails

As anyone who watches television detective programmes will know, criminal profiling claims to predict the characteristics of an offender from an analysis of a crime’s circumstances. Most police forces in the developed world use profiling, … Several studies … comparing the predictions of profilers and non-profilers in mock crime situations where the characteristics of the “real” perpetrator are known. Drawing together the results of four of these studies in a meta-analysis published in 2007, Snook’s team found that the profilers did only slightly better than students without any experience of profiling, and that the predictive abilities of both were very low (Criminal Justice and Behavior, vol 34, p 437). (more)

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Love Vs. Conversion

A key pillar of modern morality is the sanctity of romantic love.  We reel in horror at the thought of “backward” societies, including our ancestors’, who arrange marriages without intense emotional romantic love.  While they think it nice if arranged partners have such romantic feelings, if that does not happen such partners are not to look for love elsewhere. They think a life without romantic love can be a fine life.

An intense emotional religious conversion is not the same as an intense emotional romantic love, and one is not a substitute for the other.  But the two have much in common.  In fact, one could argue that someone who has lived a life without ever experiencing an intense religious conversion is nearly as emotionally impoverished as someone who had never experienced an intense romantic love.

Yet our modern sensibility does not reel in horror at the thought of a life lived without an intense religious conversion.  In fact, among our cultural elites religious feelings are seen as embarrassing, and low status; they think lives are usually better without such conversions.  Why?

Yes, religious conversion can lead to false and destructive beliefs. But then so can romantic love; it is not at all clear which one is worse by that measure.  An obvious if shallow explanation: in our society religion is low status, while romantic love is high status. Perhaps either a life without romantic love isn’t nearly as bad as we think, or a life without religious conversion is much worse than we think.

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Wisdom on Comments

Wisdom from Eli Dourado:

On small blogs, people typically comment when they have something to contribute or ask that is relevant to the post. These are frequently of high quality. … On more popular blogs, this positive commenting dynamic is confounded by the presence of eyeballs. Every post is read by many thousands of people. For the self-involved who could never attract such a large audience on their own, this is an irresistible forum for expounding pet hypotheses, axe-grinding, and generally shouting at or expressing meaningless agreement with the celebrity post-authors.

The first step, therefore, to higher quality comments is “be more niche.” Discourage your marginal readers with technical language, obscure references, and lengthy posts. Your marginal readers are not of high value anyway, and driving them away is an excellent way to improve the average comment of your inframarginal readers.

If you cannot bring yourself to do this, or you have delusions about being the next mainstream blog, then you must adopt some sort of rules to govern commenting. … The kinds of rules that might be adopted are not particularly interesting in and of themselves. …  Many sites are now using threaded comments, in which users can reply directly to another comment and the comments can be grouped together. While this may be fine for small sites, it is death to the comments section on bigger sites because it rewards the self-involved commenter with comments on his comments. It increases the payoff for piggybacking on the blog’s popularity.

As a final observation, I will note that banning comments is pretty nearly weakly dominated by unmoderated commenting. The reason is simple: if the comments are a sewer, then readers won’t wade in the sewer.

Yup, yup, yup, and yup.

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Ways To Pay To Exist

I’ve argued that if future tech and law enable a supply-and-demand economy of creature creation, it will enforce a good simple principle of existence:

Creature X should exist if it wants to exist [i.e., would want to exist if it existed] and it can pay for itself. … Most new creatures would have designs near the peak of factory profitability, and own little surplus relative to their cost. Residual control rights (e.g., “are they slaves?”) would rest in the hands of whomever could squeeze the most market value from them.

Control rights deal with a central conflict in factory-creature relations. Factories must pay up front to make creatures, but the value that creatures may create appears later. So how can factories assure they get paid? Some possible answers:

  • Slavery – Factories could take direct physical control of new creatures, or sell such control to others. This is a simple and robust approach, but it can also be wasteful, by reducing creature incentives to be productive.
  • Debt – A creature could be in debt for its creation costs, to be recycled or sold into slavery unless it repays via a set schedule. Inflexible payments can induce recycling needlessly often.  Such waste can be reduced by adjusting payments to market context. Debt holders may have some controls on activities or spending.
  • Stock – Others might own shares in a creature’s income, net of debt and certain specific expenses. Stock owners might voter to exercise limited control rights. Shares adjust more flexibly to changing conditions, and leave some creature incentives to find ways to be more productive.
  • Contract – A creature might be obligated by contract to work to achieve certain non-financial factory goals.  This requires goals that cannot be as well achieved by the factory itself, and requires relevant creature effort which can be monitored by courts.
  • Gratitude – A creature might have a strong preference for repaying its creator. This preference could be built into core values, or imprinted via something like education and acculturation, and encouraged via social norms.
  • Shared Goals – A factory might know how to make creatures that roughly shared certain of its broader goals. These might the creature’s core values or values imprinted via education or social norms. This approach requires factories with broad goals that can be better achieved by such delegates.
  • Reproduce – A factory may have a strong preference to make and support creatures like itself.  If it can actually make such, this process can be self-sustaining, and select for creatures who are effective at reproducing.

In practice, all of these approaches can be mixed, and I find it hard to say with much confidence which mixtures will be used more heavily, or be more profitable.  Mainly-slavery, however, seems pretty unlikely dominant long-run approach. I also find it hard to complain much about the ethics of using whatever turn out to be the most efficient mixtures. After all, using any other process would mean not creating creatures who could pay for themselves, or creating creatures who are a net burden to others.

While today’s creation practices include elements of all these approaches, we clearly lean most heavily on reproduction, and many of us are horrified at the prospect that future folk might not act similarly. For example, some libertarians tell me it is a basic ethical fact that no person should be born with debt, stock, or physical restraints. But I fear this is merely arrogant presumption that our ways must be best.

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