Comments on: Yawn, World Remade http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/05/yawn-world-remade.html Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future. Sun, 12 Feb 2012 01:09:57 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1.3 By: David Schiffer http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/05/yawn-world-remade.html#comment-456156 David Schiffer Fri, 08 Oct 2010 01:54:08 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=23090#comment-456156 I don't think that AI is an existential risk. It is going to be more of a golden opportunity. For some not for all. Given that most people oppose AI on various basis (religious, economic) chances are it will be implemented in a small group, and very few people will get to benefit from it. Wealthy people would probably be the first to use it. This isn't a regular technology and it will not go first to the rich and then to everybody else, like it happened with the phones or computers in a couple of decades. This is where Kurzweil is wrong. Can someone imagine the dynamics of a group that has access to AI for 20-30 years? I doubt that after 20 or 30 years, heck even after 10 years, they would need any money so the assumption that it will be shared with the rest of the world for financial reasons doesn't seem founded. So I am trying to save and figure what would be the cost of entry in this club. Any thoughts on that? I don’t think that AI is an existential risk. It is going to be more of a golden opportunity. For some not for all.

Given that most people oppose AI on various basis (religious, economic) chances are it will be implemented in a small group, and very few people will get to benefit from it. Wealthy people would probably be the first to use it.

This isn’t a regular technology and it will not go first to the rich and then to everybody else, like it happened with the phones or computers in a couple of decades. This is where Kurzweil is wrong.

Can someone imagine the dynamics of a group that has access to AI for 20-30 years?

I doubt that after 20 or 30 years, heck even after 10 years, they would need any money so the assumption that it will be shared with the rest of the world for financial reasons doesn’t seem founded.

So I am trying to save and figure what would be the cost of entry in this club.

Any thoughts on that?

]]> By: gwern http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/05/yawn-world-remade.html#comment-448132 gwern Wed, 26 May 2010 00:05:20 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=23090#comment-448132 Joshua: you don't even need an intelligence explosion for AI to be cataclysmic. Just digital human-level intelligence is enough - no need to invoke either strong or weak superintelligence. Imagine a human-level AI running on $100,000 a year of hardware, and imagine Moore's law has completely shutdown. You copy the premier patent law attorney, the premier oncologist, etc. Suddenly, those markets go from their current oligarchies to perfectly competitive winner-take-all markets reminiscent of FLOSS. (Why settle for an expensive inferior human, or Lawyer 1.2 when you can buy/rent Lawyer 2.0?) And this can apply to most, if not all, of the white-collar professions. Even surgeons have been preparing their replacements with tele-surgery robots. So, the blue-collar laborers get squeezed from below by machines, white-collar workers get squeezed from above by copies of the #1 in their profession, and that leaves not very much left. It may be a net win for humanity, but the 'crack of a future dawn' scenario will still be very painful for very many. (As far as SA goes; I go with the dishonest-forecast and ignorance explanations. I'm not too sure what one could do in the crack scenario, though - buy equities? Try to change careers to something status-related that forbids copying?) Joshua: you don’t even need an intelligence explosion for AI to be cataclysmic. Just digital human-level intelligence is enough – no need to invoke either strong or weak superintelligence.

Imagine a human-level AI running on $100,000 a year of hardware, and imagine Moore’s law has completely shutdown. You copy the premier patent law attorney, the premier oncologist, etc. Suddenly, those markets go from their current oligarchies to perfectly competitive winner-take-all markets reminiscent of FLOSS. (Why settle for an expensive inferior human, or Lawyer 1.2 when you can buy/rent Lawyer 2.0?)

And this can apply to most, if not all, of the white-collar professions. Even surgeons have been preparing their replacements with tele-surgery robots.

So, the blue-collar laborers get squeezed from below by machines, white-collar workers get squeezed from above by copies of the #1 in their profession, and that leaves not very much left. It may be a net win for humanity, but the ‘crack of a future dawn’ scenario will still be very painful for very many.

(As far as SA goes; I go with the dishonest-forecast and ignorance explanations. I’m not too sure what one could do in the crack scenario, though – buy equities? Try to change careers to something status-related that forbids copying?)

]]> By: Steven Schreiber http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/05/yawn-world-remade.html#comment-448129 Steven Schreiber Tue, 25 May 2010 22:52:32 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=23090#comment-448129 Non-trivial possibility: the length of each segment is driven by some other editorial demand, like space, than how important any of these things is. Non-trivial possibility: the length of each segment is driven by some other editorial demand, like space, than how important any of these things is.

]]> By: Jacek http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/05/yawn-world-remade.html#comment-448099 Jacek Tue, 25 May 2010 11:48:18 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=23090#comment-448099 Well, most of you focus on the possible consequences, but impact considered by SA has also a time-frame! and so, the impact of each technology/event should appear within that time frame. Nevertheless, I do believe in AI coming out of the labs by that time. And I do NOT believe the polar meltdown would have any dramatic consequences to human kind or the way we live our lives. Not to mention it is very unlikely to happen by 2050 based on the average temperatures there and the rate of global warming even if it could hold its speed for next 4 decades (which is extremely unlikely)! On the side note, I would rate a deadly pandemic as no.1 (certain within that time frame and with disastrous consequences!) threat. And we're already witnessing it today. The name of illness is socialism. It spreads extremely fast all around the world with EU in the lead and USA running fast (like on steroids) to catch up with them. Well, most of you focus on the possible consequences, but impact considered by SA has also a time-frame! and so, the impact of each technology/event should appear within that time frame. Nevertheless, I do believe in AI coming out of the labs by that time. And I do NOT believe the polar meltdown would have any dramatic consequences to human kind or the way we live our lives. Not to mention it is very unlikely to happen by 2050 based on the average temperatures there and the rate of global warming even if it could hold its speed for next 4 decades (which is extremely unlikely)!
On the side note, I would rate a deadly pandemic as no.1 (certain within that time frame and with disastrous consequences!) threat. And we’re already witnessing it today. The name of illness is socialism. It spreads extremely fast all around the world with EU in the lead and USA running fast (like on steroids) to catch up with them.

]]> By: patrick http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/05/yawn-world-remade.html#comment-448065 patrick Mon, 24 May 2010 18:16:49 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=23090#comment-448065 I still subscribe to SA, but I have not taken it very seriously for past few years when one of the issues had almost every story/editorial about how global warming, sorry now climate change, is going to kill us all and by every possible manor (more earthquakes, volcanoes, mass species extinction, floods, and locusts). That paired with absolutely no reporting on advances of nuclear fusion and fission, which could actually solve any CO2 problems. So it does not surprise me that SA sees a greater chance of nuclear exchange than advances in nuclear energy, their bias is that nuclear = bad. I still subscribe to SA, but I have not taken it very seriously for past few years when one of the issues had almost every story/editorial about how global warming, sorry now climate change, is going to kill us all and by every possible manor (more earthquakes, volcanoes, mass species extinction, floods, and locusts). That paired with absolutely no reporting on advances of nuclear fusion and fission, which could actually solve any CO2 problems. So it does not surprise me that SA sees a greater chance of nuclear exchange than advances in nuclear energy, their bias is that nuclear = bad.

]]> By: Robert http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/05/yawn-world-remade.html#comment-448048 Robert Mon, 24 May 2010 13:38:13 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=23090#comment-448048 I think fusion can be very likely, thinking outside the box, <a href="http://www.crossfirefusor.com/nuclear-fusion-reactor/overview.html" rel="nofollow">aneutronic nuclear fusion</a> could be a cutting edge to find the solution. I think fusion can be very likely, thinking outside the box, aneutronic nuclear fusion could be a cutting edge to find the solution.

]]> By: ravi hegde http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/05/yawn-world-remade.html#comment-448037 ravi hegde Mon, 24 May 2010 07:02:38 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=23090#comment-448037 Bah .. one blind man ridiculing another blind man regarding their picture of the elephant .. perhaps they aren't so sold to the singularity idea of a "powerfully intelligent AI" (whatever that means). Bah .. one blind man ridiculing another blind man regarding their picture of the elephant .. perhaps they aren’t so sold to the singularity idea of a “powerfully intelligent AI” (whatever that means).

]]> By: bob http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/05/yawn-world-remade.html#comment-448023 bob Sun, 23 May 2010 20:49:14 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=23090#comment-448023 there is an accelaration of the collaborating of many human with many machins. any human level AI will be at best a boost in the present trend. having hyped high hopes is a feature of intelligence , i'm sure same AI's would have them too.. there is an accelaration of the collaborating of many human with many machins.
any human level AI will be at best a boost in the present trend.

having hyped high hopes is a feature of intelligence , i’m sure same AI’s would have them too..

]]> By: Tweets that mention Overcoming Bias : Yawn, World Remade -- Topsy.com http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/05/yawn-world-remade.html#comment-448020 Tweets that mention Overcoming Bias : Yawn, World Remade -- Topsy.com Sun, 23 May 2010 16:53:49 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=23090#comment-448020 [...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by George Dvorsky, Benjamin Wittorf. Benjamin Wittorf said: Yawn, World Remade http://goo.gl/fb/dNBr5 [...] [...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by George Dvorsky, Benjamin Wittorf. Benjamin Wittorf said: Yawn, World Remade http://goo.gl/fb/dNBr5 [...]

]]> By: Gregor J. Rothfuss http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/05/yawn-world-remade.html#comment-448019 Gregor J. Rothfuss Sun, 23 May 2010 16:35:46 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=23090#comment-448019 Their target audience is at most SL1, so these predictions are not surprising at all. Writing above the heads of an audience doesn't sell magazines. Their target audience is at most SL1, so these predictions are not surprising at all. Writing above the heads of an audience doesn’t sell magazines.

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