Monthly Archives: May 2010

Fight The Fighters

My undergrad public choice class ended with a lecture on futarchy. (Bryan Caplan says he did something similar in grad Public Finance.)  I think I convinced most students that futarchy is promising and worth trying, first on a small scale, and mostly met their objections to their satisfaction.  But I didn’t perceive much enthusiasm.  As usual, people don’t go to the barricades for efficiency; they get passionate about fighting enemies.  If only more people would object violently to futarchy, maybe we could inspire more interest in it. But just getting most folks more of what they want, who can get excited about that?

But consider: passion about pacifism.  There have been times, when the world was divided into sides fighting vicious and deadly wars, that some folks took the side of stopping the fights.  They took the natural passion of fighting an enemy and channeled it into fighting the fighters. I’d like to get folks to similarly see the wasteful pointlessness of today’s political battles. Today we induce millions of people to make up mostly-random political opinions on hundreds of diverse complex policy topics they hardly understand, split into warring factions based on shared opinions, and then fight vicious political battles over which factions get to make the government implement their random opinions. I’d rather folks focused on generating meta-political-opinions, not about particular policies like wars or bank bailouts, but about what political processes best choose effective policies.

Some folks are concerned that the public will feel dissed by Vote on Values, Bet on Beliefs, in that their opinions would no longer be solicited, via voting, on how to get what they want; they’d only be asked about what they want.  While anyone could speak on how to get stuff, those contributions would face stiff penalties for inaccuracy (as well as rewards for accuracy). But rather than seeing this as disrespect, I’d like folks to see it as a mark of status:  high status folks tend more to just tell their underlings what they want, and to say less about how to do that.  Better quality household servants, or exectutive assistants, need less instruction on how to do their job.  You can more just say you want scrambled eggs and toast for breakfast at 8am, and they’ll figure out how to make it happen.

Similarly, nations where citizens can effectively control their government by just specifying a national welfare function, and tweaking it a bit periodically, should be higher status than nations where ordinary citizens must continually form opinions on the effectiveness of hundreds of rapidly changing policies. For example, many Californians, who every few months face another thick booklet of direct democracy initiatives, complain they shouldn’t have to wade through such detail; isn’t that the politicians’ job? If political servants can’t be trusted to choose well without heavy monitoring, well then yes voters are forced to monitor them. But people with access to more trustworthy servants should gain the benefits both of having to pay less attention to details, as of the respect owed those who achieve such efficiency.

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Your Wife Does Understand You

In a prospective study among 199 newlywed couples, partners’ self-reported and perceived understanding and their knowledge in different domains were assessed. Understanding was independent of knowledge. Self-reported and perceived understanding predicted relationship well-being but neither type of knowledge did. Thus, subjectively feeling that one understands and is understood by one’s partner appears to be more important to relationship well-being than actually knowing and being known by one’s partner.

Women who roll their eyes at hearing “My wife doesn’t understand me” already know this:

In a prospective study among 199 newlywed couples, partners’ self-reported and perceived understanding and their knowledge in different domains were assessed. Understanding was independent of knowledge. Self-reported and perceived understanding predicted relationship well-being but neither type of knowledge did. Thus, subjectively feeling that one understands and is understood by one’s partner appears to be more important to relationship well-being than actually knowing and being known by one’s partner. (more; HT Rob Wiblin)

Men who roll their eyes at “He just makes me laugh” know something similar.  We like some folks and dislike others, these feelings change over time, and for the most part we just don’t know why.  So we make up vague socially-acceptable reasons, like “understands me” or “makes me laugh.”

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Silencing Outsider Status

Me last week:

Paul Davies, chair of the group that decides what SETI scientists will do if evidence of aliens is ever found, thinks … until scientists can say something to the public with great (~99%) confidence, they should say nothing. … Most early low-probability signs … being false alarms is “damaging to the credibility of science.”  So until scientists can confidently say that an asteroid will hit us or that we see aliens, they should just whisper to each other. … One might justify this confidence-or-silence policy by arguing … reporters are biased to present low probability news as if it were high probability.

Today’s Post:

NASA … reopened a 14-year-old controversy, … reaffirming and offering support for its widely challenged assertion that a 4-billion-year-old meteorite that landed thousands of years ago on Antarctica shows evidence of microscopic life on Mars. … Fourteen years of relentless criticism have turned many scientists against the McKay results, and the Mars meteorite “discovery” has remained an unresolved and somewhat awkward issue.  This has continued even though the team’s central finding — that Mars once had living creatures — has gained broad acceptance. …

Critics had said that the magnetites could have just as easily existed without bacteria or biology — that they sometimes form as a result of the shock and searing heat that could come, for instance, from an asteroid strike. But … [a] recent paper … reported that the purity of the magnetites made that explanation impossible. … “All the criticisms of our original paper got widely distributed, but when we did the work to prove the critics were wrong, it hardly made a ripple. … We’re now in a position to say we’ve knocked down all the criticisms — and our biological explanation is the one left standing.” …

At the conference, a leading cautionary voice in astrobiology proposed that a special protocol be established to oversee release of any journal articles making dramatic extraterrestrial claims. Andrew Steele … compared the absence of astrobiology review with the formal procedures set up by scientists involved with the search for extraterrestrial life, or SETI.  He said that SETI leaders understood the societal sensitivity of their work and that it was time for researchers in astrobiology “grow up and do the same.” (more)

Yet another voice for muzzling!  It seems clear to me that scientists do not usually insist on such high standards of confidence for publication.  Most Research Findings Are False seems pretty clear evidence, as does the high rate of celebrated new medical treatments that are later repudiated, and the very low marginal health-effectiveness of medicine.  I suspect I see similarly low standards for publications that are pro-global warming, or that warn of low science funding or manpower.  If the standard of evidence for publication varies with the topic, we can’t explain it via a generic tendency for reporters to exaggerate findings.  So what explains this variation?

Here I’ll channel Tyler Cowen, and suggest this is mostly about how real events echoing stories we tell change which intellectuals get more status.  Think of all the movies you’ve ever seen of an outsider intellectual unfairly rejected by establishment scientists.  Evidence of aliens, or a Really Big Disaster are prototypical.  Well establishment scientists see those movies too, and they don’t want real stories like them to appear in the media. They correctly perceive, for example, that a story confirming aliens would raise the status of UFO nuts, relative to establishment academics.  Similarly, news about a really big disaster would raise the status of “the sky is falling” outsiders.

On the other hand, establishment academics correctly perceive their status would be raised, relative to outsiders, by more stories of promising new medical treatments, of the seriousness of global warming, of the need for more science funding, or that a new result “might lead to a new theory of everything.” Even if such stories turn out later to be wrong.  Why?  Because we hear many similar stories about heroic scientists discovering treatments, or warning of enviro disaster, and few stories about such scientists being later wrong.

I see two effects:

  1. There are some long standing disagreements between insider and outsider intellectuals in our society, and any news that confirms outsider claims raises outsider status.
  2. News about a real event about you that matches a commonly-told story in which you’d be a hero, raises your status.   If that news is later reversed, that won’t reverse your status, if there aren’t commonly told stories about you being a villain in a news reversal story.
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Is Happy Far?

Yesterday I suggested that blue-is-far might explain the cross-cultural association of blue with these concepts: cold, rational, art, gods, freedom, loyalty.  However, blue is also associated with unhappy and trouble.  So I sought more data on near-far and happiness.  I found:

Happier people tend to think about themselves with higher level of abstraction than less happy people, even after controlling for the overall valence and internality of their construals. … People randomly assigned to think about themselves in abstract rather than concrete terms reported greater pre- to post-manipulation increases in reports of life satisfaction. (more)

Five experiments indicated that a positive (vs. negative) mood increases abstract (concrete) construal. … Participants in a positive (vs.negative) mood came up with more abstract descriptions of activities, indicated that abstract goals were more important, … The effect of mood on construal results in increased adoption of whatever abstract goal is accessible and … the effects are mediated by construal level. (more)

Experiential purchases – those made with the primary intention of acquiring a life experience – made them happier than material purchases. In a follow-up laboratory experiment, participants experienced more positive feelings after pondering an experiential purchase than after pondering a material purchase. In another experiment, participants were more likely to anticipate that experiences would make them happier than material possessions after adopting a temporally distant, versus a temporally proximate, perspective. (more)

So it seems being happy makes you think far, and thinking far makes you happy, and better able to see what makes you happy.  This conflicts with blue’s concept associations with unhappiness, and weakens support for blue-is-far.  Color me confused.

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Is Blue Far?

Colours in Cultures diagram got me thinking.  Some cross-cultural associations (weak in parens):

  • PINK: healthy, children, femininity, (erotic)
  • GREEN: life, nature, growth, eternity, religion, compassion, jealousy
  • WHITE: purity, luxury, trust, truce, peace, (death)
  • RED: heat, danger, anger, passion, success, excitement, desire,  marriage, love, (erotic)
  • BLUE: cold, rational, art, gods, freedom, loyalty, unhappy, trouble
  • BLACK: evil, bad luck, self-cultivation, penance, style, authority, (death)
  • PURPLE: decadence, flamboyance, gratitude, wisdom, beauty, cruelty, mystery
  • YELLOW: illness, cowardice, deceit, fun, joy, repels evil, strength
  • BROWN:  earthy, (reliable)
  • ORANGE: warmth, learning, (family, friendly, healing)

I couldn’t resist looking for concept-color schemes to explain these.  After all, the concepts associated with key colors must be important concepts. My guesses:

  • PINK: healthy skin, esp. nipples/lips/genitals, = red + white = clean sex
  • GREEN: nature, nature spirits & their emotions
  • WHITE: clean
  • RED: fire/blood/blush, hot emotions, especially domination & sex
  • BLUE: sky/water, far objects & mental mode
  • BLACK: night/dark, bad/selfish
  • PURPLE: rare, = red+blue = far domination = high class/status?
  • YELLOW: urine/puss, sun = relaxed playful mood?
  • BROWN: dirt/ground
  • ORANGE: fire??

I’ve ordered the colors from easy to hard to interpret.  Pink, green, and white seem pretty obvious.  Red, blue, and black are less clear, but we seem to have a rough handle on them.  Purple, yellow, orange, and brown seem hardest to understand.

After my amateur effort above, I went looking for other accounts, finding this, this, this, and this.  Not sure I’ve found the good stuff though. Hat tip to Katja Grace.

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Unselfish Politicians

Economics students at George Mason University are mostly taught, and mostly accept, a free-market perspective, where political intervention in society is treated with suspicion.  I’m currently teaching Public Choice, or economics of politics, where you’d expect such student opinions to be especially visible.

In a recent quiz, I asked students to give an advantage and a disadvantage of letting corporations run for political office, relative to the status quo. Most gave an advantage I had described in lecture, that firms could develop a consistent brand and reputation on which voters could rely.  I hadn’t mentioned any disadvantages in class, but 80+% spontaneously said that a disadvantage is elected firms would support self-serving policies.

Wow.  Even GMU econ undergrads, not especially inclined to see the bright side of politicians, see corporations as more intrinsically selfish and corrupt than politicians.  The idea of firms as dark untrustworthy aliens is indeed buried deep in our psyche.  Xenophobia lives.

Added: I guess I need to spell this out.  Humans evolved concern for others because this enabled individual humans to better survive and reproduce, especially by being better respected and liked by others.  Similarly, firms who hoped to succeed in the industry of running for office would seek to create and maintain a clear positive long-term brand, one that voters could respect, like, and embrace.  It is crazy to assume firms will always hurt their customers for any temporary gain just because some paper somewhere declares firms must seek profits.

Added 1p: Consider an ordinary politician who hopes for 15 more years on the job, versus a firm now holding 100 offices that hopes to continue for another fifty years. Which one is more scared that news of a corrupt act would destroy their future political popularity?  Which will try harder to avoid such acts?

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Open Thread

This is our monthly place to discuss relevant topics that have not appeared in recent posts.

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