http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/04/overconfidence-looks-good.html Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future. Sun, 12 Feb 2012 01:09:57 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1.3 http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/04/overconfidence-looks-good.html#comment-447756 Tweets that mention Overcoming Bias : Overconfidence Looks Good -- Topsy.com Tue, 18 May 2010 15:38:23 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=22460#comment-447756 [...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Tom Fratamico, Ben Badler. Ben Badler said: Why strong conviction is (unfortunately) valued more highly than thinking in probabilities http://bit.ly/8YBvxw [...] [...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Tom Fratamico, Ben Badler. Ben Badler said: Why strong conviction is (unfortunately) valued more highly than thinking in probabilities http://bit.ly/8YBvxw [...]

]]> http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/04/overconfidence-looks-good.html#comment-445522 Neuro News Nanos - Ryan Sager - Neuroworld - True/Slant Thu, 08 Apr 2010 11:45:30 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=22460#comment-445522 [...] Overconfidence as social signaling — personality traits strongly affect relative ability judgments — not about self [...] [...] Overconfidence as social signaling — personality traits strongly affect relative ability judgments — not about self [...]

]]> http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/04/overconfidence-looks-good.html#comment-445457 Robert Wiblin Wed, 07 Apr 2010 05:56:07 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=22460#comment-445457 Bock: Overconfidence in terms of accurately predicting the truth. Bock: Overconfidence in terms of accurately predicting the truth.

]]> http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/04/overconfidence-looks-good.html#comment-445455 Bock Wed, 07 Apr 2010 05:35:31 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=22460#comment-445455 But what is the meaning of overconfidence if it increases odds of a positive social outcome? What is "over" about it? Sounds like the word confidence is more accurate. But what is the meaning of overconfidence if it increases odds of a positive social outcome? What is “over” about it? Sounds like the word confidence is more accurate.

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