Comments on: Twin Conspiracies http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/03/twin-conspiracies.html Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future. Sun, 12 Feb 2012 01:09:57 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1.3 By: Tim Tyler http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/03/twin-conspiracies.html#comment-445303 Tim Tyler Sun, 04 Apr 2010 09:06:38 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=22246#comment-445303 "Twins' DNA foils police - Police found a DNA sample at a crime scene only for their investigation to stall when they discovering it belongs to one of a pair of identical twins." - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/7547964/Twins-DNA-foils-police.html “Twins’ DNA foils police – Police found a DNA sample at a crime scene only for their investigation to stall when they discovering it belongs to one of a pair of identical twins.”

– http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/7547964/Twins-DNA-foils-police.html

]]> By: Nibiru Planet X http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/03/twin-conspiracies.html#comment-444851 Nibiru Planet X Sat, 27 Mar 2010 05:07:25 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=22246#comment-444851 This is a joke right? lol This is a joke right? lol

]]> By: botogol http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/03/twin-conspiracies.html#comment-444672 botogol Wed, 24 Mar 2010 11:00:33 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=22246#comment-444672 The one area where a twin conspiracy seems to me to pay off is in studying for qualifications. Two twins co-study for a qualification, and then go off and live their own lives, each now in possession of the qualification that they have done only half the work for. So they each get a higher score / more advanced qualification / in less time than they could have managed on their own. Yes, they each individually only covered part of the syllabus so there are holes in their knowledge but outside of academia who really ever gets tested on that. The one area where a twin conspiracy seems to me to pay off is in studying for qualifications. Two twins co-study for a qualification, and then go off and live their own lives, each now in possession of the qualification that they have done only half the work for.

So they each get a higher score / more advanced qualification / in less time than they could have managed on their own. Yes, they each individually only covered part of the syllabus so there are holes in their knowledge but outside of academia who really ever gets tested on that.

]]> By: Tracy W http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/03/twin-conspiracies.html#comment-444548 Tracy W Mon, 22 Mar 2010 10:29:00 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=22246#comment-444548 But everyone who knows two individual twins who were brought up together knows that identical twins are distinct people from each other, each with their own personality and some slight differences in looks. The CEO's colleagues would notice. (See Judith Harris's "No Two Alike" where she discusses the cases of identical twins brought up together, along with the more famous examples of identical twins brought up separately). And also, how would these two identical twins cope with disagreements between them on how to handle all sorts of decisions? But everyone who knows two individual twins who were brought up together knows that identical twins are distinct people from each other, each with their own personality and some slight differences in looks. The CEO’s colleagues would notice. (See Judith Harris’s “No Two Alike” where she discusses the cases of identical twins brought up together, along with the more famous examples of identical twins brought up separately).

And also, how would these two identical twins cope with disagreements between them on how to handle all sorts of decisions?

]]> By: amy lyons http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/03/twin-conspiracies.html#comment-444512 amy lyons Sun, 21 Mar 2010 16:16:28 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=22246#comment-444512 What would be the point? You would have to share your income without twice the personal tax allowance so most of it would be taxed at 50% and you only get half of half. Plus, which of you gets to sleep with the gorgeous spouse each night? Yes, you could cheat on your wife (or husband) but you also have to share her/him in the first place. I also agree with a previous commentator that nobody would mind if there were two of you doing the job, as long as you were doing it well and taking only one salary. What's for the shareholders not to like? Nah, if I were a twin, I might use the situation better to complete the perfect one-off bank heist: even if you were caught, as long as you each claimed it was the other and "you" were the one at the opera (with lots of witnesses), then the case couldn't be proved beyond reasonable doubt against either of you...even with DNA evidence and CCTV footage, so you both get off :-) What would be the point? You would have to share your income without twice the personal tax allowance so most of it would be taxed at 50% and you only get half of half. Plus, which of you gets to sleep with the gorgeous spouse each night? Yes, you could cheat on your wife (or husband) but you also have to share her/him in the first place.

I also agree with a previous commentator that nobody would mind if there were two of you doing the job, as long as you were doing it well and taking only one salary. What’s for the shareholders not to like?

Nah, if I were a twin, I might use the situation better to complete the perfect one-off bank heist: even if you were caught, as long as you each claimed it was the other and “you” were the one at the opera (with lots of witnesses), then the case couldn’t be proved beyond reasonable doubt against either of you…even with DNA evidence and CCTV footage, so you both get off :-)

]]> By: Sasha http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/03/twin-conspiracies.html#comment-444490 Sasha Sat, 20 Mar 2010 23:41:17 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=22246#comment-444490 Very well said. Very well said.

]]> By: Nichlemn http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/03/twin-conspiracies.html#comment-444472 Nichlemn Sat, 20 Mar 2010 14:42:18 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=22246#comment-444472 "You are clearly (although implicitly) saying that there are massive economies of scale to some labor markets, whereby two people can be several times as productive as one person. I just don’t think this is plausible. In winner take all markets, what matters is the skill of one person, not how many people you have. Two mediocre basketball playing twins could not get nearly Michael Jordan’s salary, and two mediocre manager twins could not match the productivity of a good CEO." I think asymmetric information would be the best reason. The twins give all the <em>appearances</em> of being highly talented, which end in them getting a high paying job that they're not necessarily that great at, but monitoring difficulties allow them to get away with it. “You are clearly (although implicitly) saying that there are massive economies of scale to some labor markets, whereby two people can be several times as productive as one person. I just don’t think this is plausible. In winner take all markets, what matters is the skill of one person, not how many people you have. Two mediocre basketball playing twins could not get nearly Michael Jordan’s salary, and two mediocre manager twins could not match the productivity of a good CEO.”

I think asymmetric information would be the best reason. The twins give all the appearances of being highly talented, which end in them getting a high paying job that they’re not necessarily that great at, but monitoring difficulties allow them to get away with it.

]]> By: Silas Barta http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/03/twin-conspiracies.html#comment-444464 Silas Barta Sat, 20 Mar 2010 05:31:38 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=22246#comment-444464 Heh, this is actually the plot for the movie <em>Marked for Death</em>, where the leader of a Jamaican drug cartel is actually two people who are twin brothers. ("The secret to his magic is that he has two heads and four eyes.") "He" is, of course, amazingly effective. When the protagonist kills "the" leader and presents his severed head to the rest of the gang, they're shocked ... until the twin finally reveals his existence and walks in the scene. Oh, and sorry for the spoilers. Heh, this is actually the plot for the movie Marked for Death, where the leader of a Jamaican drug cartel is actually two people who are twin brothers. (“The secret to his magic is that he has two heads and four eyes.”) “He” is, of course, amazingly effective.

When the protagonist kills “the” leader and presents his severed head to the rest of the gang, they’re shocked … until the twin finally reveals his existence and walks in the scene.

Oh, and sorry for the spoilers.

]]> By: Aaron http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/03/twin-conspiracies.html#comment-444454 Aaron Fri, 19 Mar 2010 23:03:37 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=22246#comment-444454 Even if it were feasible (as others have pointed out, it isn't) the twin frequency among CEOs test isn't particularly useful. Having an identical twin would clearly be huge influence on someone, how are you going to control for that many confounders? Even if it were feasible (as others have pointed out, it isn’t) the twin frequency among CEOs test isn’t particularly useful.

Having an identical twin would clearly be huge influence on someone, how are you going to control for that many confounders?

]]> By: Jason Malloy http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/03/twin-conspiracies.html#comment-444440 Jason Malloy Fri, 19 Mar 2010 16:29:03 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=22246#comment-444440 <i>They could cheat on their spouse and while offering that spouse a near-constant video of “their” activities. </i> Identical twins aren't that identical. They could cheat on their spouse and while offering that spouse a near-constant video of “their” activities.

Identical twins aren’t that identical.

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