Comments on: Hard Facts: Innovation http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/03/hard-facts-innovation.html Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future. Sun, 12 Feb 2012 01:09:57 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1.3 By: Richard Silliker http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/03/hard-facts-innovation.html#comment-444130 Richard Silliker Sat, 13 Mar 2010 00:56:10 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=22166#comment-444130 Tim Thanks for your input. Keep coming back. Tim

Thanks for your input. Keep coming back.

]]> By: tim http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/03/hard-facts-innovation.html#comment-444118 tim Fri, 12 Mar 2010 19:39:50 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=22166#comment-444118 They aren't lone geniuses. They are very smart people who built on the natural progression of ideas at the time, and often just so happened to be first. Look at Newton and Leibniz. Were they both "lone geniuses"? No, they were simply two smart men who invented the same thing at the same time <em>because it was the logical thing to be invented at that time</em>. And your example of Darwin is laughable. Haven't you ever heard of Alfred Russel Wallace, who came up with the same theory as Darwin at the same time as Darwin <em>and was published with Darwin</em>? P.S. Norman Bethune? Seriously? The guy who made blood transfusions portable is an example of a "lone genius"? A pretty damn good field surgeon, I'll grant you, but I don't think he should share space with Châtelet. P.P.S. Your website suggests you have a vested interest in believing in this "lone genius" theory, as it lays out just the kind of crank theory someone wanting to be a "lone genius" likes to espouse. Unfortunately, reality just doesn't work that way. They aren’t lone geniuses. They are very smart people who built on the natural progression of ideas at the time, and often just so happened to be first. Look at Newton and Leibniz. Were they both “lone geniuses”? No, they were simply two smart men who invented the same thing at the same time because it was the logical thing to be invented at that time. And your example of Darwin is laughable. Haven’t you ever heard of Alfred Russel Wallace, who came up with the same theory as Darwin at the same time as Darwin and was published with Darwin?

P.S. Norman Bethune? Seriously? The guy who made blood transfusions portable is an example of a “lone genius”? A pretty damn good field surgeon, I’ll grant you, but I don’t think he should share space with Châtelet.

P.P.S. Your website suggests you have a vested interest in believing in this “lone genius” theory, as it lays out just the kind of crank theory someone wanting to be a “lone genius” likes to espouse. Unfortunately, reality just doesn’t work that way.

]]> By: Richard Silliker http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/03/hard-facts-innovation.html#comment-444088 Richard Silliker Fri, 12 Mar 2010 15:06:15 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=22166#comment-444088 >tim a reminder as to what i wrote. "The lone geniuses produce brilliant new ideas by USING the knowledge available." >tim

a reminder as to what i wrote.

“The lone geniuses produce brilliant new ideas by USING the knowledge available.”

]]> By: DWCrmcm http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/03/hard-facts-innovation.html#comment-444087 DWCrmcm Fri, 12 Mar 2010 14:52:28 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=22166#comment-444087 While I agree with you somewhat, I will cite Michael Faraday, Emilie du Châtelet , Copernicus, Archimedes of Syracuse, Pythagorus, Buddha, Alexander The Great, Jesus of Nazareth, Norman Bethune, Darwin. <blockquote><em>Why else do you think they only exist in the past?</blockquote></em> Latency. While I agree with you somewhat, I will cite Michael Faraday, Emilie du Châtelet , Copernicus, Archimedes of Syracuse, Pythagorus, Buddha, Alexander The Great, Jesus of Nazareth, Norman Bethune, Darwin.

Why else do you think they only exist in the past?

Latency.

]]> By: tim http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/03/hard-facts-innovation.html#comment-444083 tim Fri, 12 Mar 2010 13:24:41 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=22166#comment-444083 You're both missing Eliezer's point by a mile. While Einstein (and Newton, and Darwin, and many other brilliant thinkers) did make exceptionally significant contributions to science, his work (and eccentric life) has provided fodder for a mythology surrounding him that denies the labour of his many colleagues who provided the groundwork for his theories and in some cases were working toward, and would have eventually reached, the same conclusions. The lone geniuses are merely geniuses. To suggest Einstein's theories are Einstein's alone is to ignore Lorentz, Poincaré, Eddington, Hilbert, Schwarzschild, Friedman, Reissner, Nordström, and everyone else I'm forgetting who contributed to the early theoretical framework, which, we must remember, did not spring fully-formed from Albert's forehead. The idea that brilliant ideas require lone geniuses is an appealing one, not only because we might fancy ourselves such geniuses but also because it provides us with a compelling narrative, but that too is merely a bias we need to overcome. Why else do you think they only exist in the past? You’re both missing Eliezer’s point by a mile. While Einstein (and Newton, and Darwin, and many other brilliant thinkers) did make exceptionally significant contributions to science, his work (and eccentric life) has provided fodder for a mythology surrounding him that denies the labour of his many colleagues who provided the groundwork for his theories and in some cases were working toward, and would have eventually reached, the same conclusions. The lone geniuses are merely geniuses. To suggest Einstein’s theories are Einstein’s alone is to ignore Lorentz, Poincaré, Eddington, Hilbert, Schwarzschild, Friedman, Reissner, Nordström, and everyone else I’m forgetting who contributed to the early theoretical framework, which, we must remember, did not spring fully-formed from Albert’s forehead.

The idea that brilliant ideas require lone geniuses is an appealing one, not only because we might fancy ourselves such geniuses but also because it provides us with a compelling narrative, but that too is merely a bias we need to overcome. Why else do you think they only exist in the past?

]]> By: DWCrmcm http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/03/hard-facts-innovation.html#comment-444065 DWCrmcm Fri, 12 Mar 2010 05:52:25 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=22166#comment-444065 Rick and I met for coffee earlier this evening during which time he expressed this idea to me. Unless you endorse our lexicon, at least within this context, you won't understand what he is talking about. Because it is through our inchoate model that he arrived at his construction. Einstein may be right. I wouldn't know. What I do know is that Einstein was encapsulating a specific behavior within the context of a Universe comprised of matter. In this context, a minor context, the capacity to measure phenomena is science's domain. As long as science can rely on Technologically Augmented Perception, science will reside in its own little safe harbor. However beyond TAP, material phenomena, gas, plasma, liquids, and solids, there is only the metaphysical treatment of complexity. Until complexity studies stop toadying to science and math, complexity will remain equivalent to complication. In all fairness, the model is taking a while to elucidate, I am told by my psychiatrist and other psychiatrists that my mental illness will make it difficult to elucidate the model for neurological reasons having not to do with any cognitive inability. Rather than censoring me as you did and picking on someone who is simply not your intellectual equal, you might want to use that great big brain of yours to get a grip on what we are trying to elucidate. I won't be frequenting your website. Rick may, however as long as we stay off of your site, you may want to show a little respect for someone's struggle to understand when you are a guest on someone else's website. Sincerely and Respectfully dwc Author and co-developer of <a href="http://rationalmechanisms.com/" title="The Rational Model Of Complex Mechanisms ©" rel="nofollow">RMCM©</a> Rick and I met for coffee earlier this evening during which time he expressed this idea to me. Unless you endorse our lexicon, at least within this context, you won’t understand what he is talking about.
Because it is through our inchoate model that he arrived at his construction.
Einstein may be right. I wouldn’t know. What I do know is that Einstein was encapsulating a specific behavior within the context of a Universe comprised of matter. In this context, a minor context, the capacity to measure phenomena is science’s domain. As long as science can rely on Technologically Augmented Perception, science will reside in its own little safe harbor. However beyond TAP, material phenomena, gas, plasma, liquids, and solids, there is only the metaphysical treatment of complexity. Until complexity studies stop toadying to science and math, complexity will remain equivalent to complication.

In all fairness, the model is taking a while to elucidate, I am told by my psychiatrist and other psychiatrists that my mental illness will make it difficult to elucidate the model for neurological reasons having not to do with any cognitive inability.

Rather than censoring me as you did and picking on someone who is simply not your intellectual equal, you might want to use that great big brain of yours to get a grip on what we are trying to elucidate.

I won’t be frequenting your website. Rick may, however as long as we stay off of your site, you may want to show a little respect for someone’s struggle to understand when you are a guest on someone else’s website.

Sincerely
and Respectfully

dwc
Author and co-developer of RMCM©

]]> By: Richard Silliker http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/03/hard-facts-innovation.html#comment-444060 Richard Silliker Fri, 12 Mar 2010 04:27:03 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=22166#comment-444060 www.answers.com/topic/legend Dictionary: leg·end (lĕj'ənd) n. An unverified story handed down from earlier times, especially one popularly believed to be historical. A body or collection of such stories. A romanticized or popularized myth of modern times. Which legend are you talking about? http://www.answers.com/topic/legend

Dictionary: leg·end (lĕj’ənd)

n.

An unverified story handed down from earlier times, especially one popularly believed to be historical.
A body or collection of such stories.
A romanticized or popularized myth of modern times.

Which legend are you talking about?

]]> By: Richard Silliker http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/03/hard-facts-innovation.html#comment-444059 Richard Silliker Fri, 12 Mar 2010 04:16:55 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=22166#comment-444059 Huh? Huh?

]]> By: Eliezer Yudkowsky http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/03/hard-facts-innovation.html#comment-444056 Eliezer Yudkowsky Fri, 12 Mar 2010 00:51:49 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=22166#comment-444056 Citation needed. What has been allegedly shown and how? Is it contradicted by the legend of Einstein, is Einstein's legend wrong, is Einstein supposed to be a special case, or does this just mean something that doesn't contradict Einstein's existence? Citation needed. What has been allegedly shown and how? Is it contradicted by the legend of Einstein, is Einstein’s legend wrong, is Einstein supposed to be a special case, or does this just mean something that doesn’t contradict Einstein’s existence?

]]> By: Nanonymous http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/03/hard-facts-innovation.html#comment-444055 Nanonymous Fri, 12 Mar 2010 00:40:19 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=22166#comment-444055 The more you cite from the book the more likely it seems that it is a collection of half-truths written to make a quick buck. The more you cite from the book the more likely it seems that it is a collection of half-truths written to make a quick buck.

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