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	<title>Comments on: Dreamtime Drama</title>
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	<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/02/dreamtime-drama.html</link>
	<description>Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future.</description>
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		<title>By: Jack Christopher</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/02/dreamtime-drama.html#comment-442697</link>
		<dc:creator>Jack Christopher</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 14 Feb 2010 16:31:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=21816#comment-442697</guid>
		<description>Bad weather makes weathermen seem more important.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Bad weather makes weathermen seem more important.</p>
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		<title>By: Richard Silliker</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/02/dreamtime-drama.html#comment-442481</link>
		<dc:creator>Richard Silliker</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 10 Feb 2010 00:07:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=21816#comment-442481</guid>
		<description>give it them on a t-shirt.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>give it them on a t-shirt.</p>
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		<title>By: Edward Gaffney</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/02/dreamtime-drama.html#comment-442478</link>
		<dc:creator>Edward Gaffney</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Feb 2010 21:59:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=21816#comment-442478</guid>
		<description>Many of your readers disagree with your conclusions and continue to do so. You are a self-confessed contrarian. Do you seek only discourse with other contrarians? Insulting non-contrarians certainly seems to indicate that you do.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Many of your readers disagree with your conclusions and continue to do so. You are a self-confessed contrarian. Do you seek only discourse with other contrarians? Insulting non-contrarians certainly seems to indicate that you do.</p>
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		<title>By: Edward Gaffney</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/02/dreamtime-drama.html#comment-442477</link>
		<dc:creator>Edward Gaffney</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Feb 2010 21:57:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=21816#comment-442477</guid>
		<description>Your argument assumes that economic growth at the societal level exists independently of technology and input growth at the per capita level.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Your argument assumes that economic growth at the societal level exists independently of technology and input growth at the per capita level.</p>
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		<title>By: michael vassar</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/02/dreamtime-drama.html#comment-442470</link>
		<dc:creator>michael vassar</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Feb 2010 20:48:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=21816#comment-442470</guid>
		<description>Count me as aware but unconvinced.  That doesn&#039;t justify posting as if unaware.

BTW, Robin, if you think we are so entertaining to future generations, does that greatly up your belief that we are in a simulation?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Count me as aware but unconvinced.  That doesn&#8217;t justify posting as if unaware.</p>
<p>BTW, Robin, if you think we are so entertaining to future generations, does that greatly up your belief that we are in a simulation?</p>
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		<title>By: Psychohistorian</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/02/dreamtime-drama.html#comment-442468</link>
		<dc:creator>Psychohistorian</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Feb 2010 19:48:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=21816#comment-442468</guid>
		<description>I may speak for only myself, but I&#039;d suspect your readers are aware of your theories but thoroughly unconvinced by them. Positing a new theory based on a less-than-credible old theory will draw fire towards the old theory.

It might not be as personally satisfying as, &quot;My readers are stupid,&quot; but it certainly explains the evidence.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I may speak for only myself, but I&#8217;d suspect your readers are aware of your theories but thoroughly unconvinced by them. Positing a new theory based on a less-than-credible old theory will draw fire towards the old theory.</p>
<p>It might not be as personally satisfying as, &#8220;My readers are stupid,&#8221; but it certainly explains the evidence.</p>
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		<title>By: Psychohistorian</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/02/dreamtime-drama.html#comment-442467</link>
		<dc:creator>Psychohistorian</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Feb 2010 19:45:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=21816#comment-442467</guid>
		<description>&lt;blockquote&gt;those inclined to choose growth will eventually outnumber and take over those who choose stagnation.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

This is ultimately what I take issue with. It&#039;s a huge and unfounded assumption that large groups of people will systematically choose large families over higher individual wealth, even when they become geographically dispersed and begin to make up a large portion of the population. There simply isn&#039;t evidence that this phenomenon will occur. It hinges on the assumption that reproductive culture is principally hereditary and is stable in the very long run (i.e. tens or hundreds of generations). Existing evidence rather directly contradicts this, as I understand it.

Even if you look at the subpopulations in the US that do have high fertility, I am reasonably sure that most of their children are, on average, as well off or better off than their parents. I&#039;d also be surprised if their fertility doesn&#039;t decline in direct proportion to their cultural assimilation over the generations.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>those inclined to choose growth will eventually outnumber and take over those who choose stagnation.</p></blockquote>
<p>This is ultimately what I take issue with. It&#8217;s a huge and unfounded assumption that large groups of people will systematically choose large families over higher individual wealth, even when they become geographically dispersed and begin to make up a large portion of the population. There simply isn&#8217;t evidence that this phenomenon will occur. It hinges on the assumption that reproductive culture is principally hereditary and is stable in the very long run (i.e. tens or hundreds of generations). Existing evidence rather directly contradicts this, as I understand it.</p>
<p>Even if you look at the subpopulations in the US that do have high fertility, I am reasonably sure that most of their children are, on average, as well off or better off than their parents. I&#8217;d also be surprised if their fertility doesn&#8217;t decline in direct proportion to their cultural assimilation over the generations.</p>
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		<title>By: Dan</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/02/dreamtime-drama.html#comment-442454</link>
		<dc:creator>Dan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Feb 2010 14:40:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=21816#comment-442454</guid>
		<description>Robin, most of the discussion was on your previous posts... which I have all red..

Ok to be fair you did ask us what &quot;which circus wonder are you?&quot; which nobody seems to have answered... so here:

Nothing is fundamentally weird in our society, we have high growth because there is so much stuff lying around to exploit. We have bizarre beliefs because the brain is product of messy evolution and malfunctions easily... not because we are rich. (Want to see poor tribes bizarre beliefs and rituals? It doesn&#039;t even compare)

Yeah sure there is some really freaky things that people may point back to that is unique. But their own era and all preceding ones will have their own unique little quirks as well that will stand out.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Robin, most of the discussion was on your previous posts&#8230; which I have all red..</p>
<p>Ok to be fair you did ask us what &#8220;which circus wonder are you?&#8221; which nobody seems to have answered&#8230; so here:</p>
<p>Nothing is fundamentally weird in our society, we have high growth because there is so much stuff lying around to exploit. We have bizarre beliefs because the brain is product of messy evolution and malfunctions easily&#8230; not because we are rich. (Want to see poor tribes bizarre beliefs and rituals? It doesn&#8217;t even compare)</p>
<p>Yeah sure there is some really freaky things that people may point back to that is unique. But their own era and all preceding ones will have their own unique little quirks as well that will stand out.</p>
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		<title>By: Robin Hanson</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/02/dreamtime-drama.html#comment-442450</link>
		<dc:creator>Robin Hanson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Feb 2010 13:16:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=21816#comment-442450</guid>
		<description>I had a whole series of posts just a few months ago on future poverty, which I linked into from this post.  Yet most comments on this short post are speculating about why ever would I posit such poverty?  Are my readers so very random and lazy that they are unlikely to have read my prior posts and too lazy to follow a link?  Almost makes you want to give up on blogging n write books - I&#039;ll bet book readers rarely write to complain about the last chapter being poorly supported because they didn&#039;t bother to read the first chapter.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I had a whole series of posts just a few months ago on future poverty, which I linked into from this post.  Yet most comments on this short post are speculating about why ever would I posit such poverty?  Are my readers so very random and lazy that they are unlikely to have read my prior posts and too lazy to follow a link?  Almost makes you want to give up on blogging n write books &#8211; I&#8217;ll bet book readers rarely write to complain about the last chapter being poorly supported because they didn&#8217;t bother to read the first chapter.</p>
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		<title>By: Dan</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/02/dreamtime-drama.html#comment-442449</link>
		<dc:creator>Dan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Feb 2010 12:57:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=21816#comment-442449</guid>
		<description>&quot;Unlikely it could be restricted in the long run – those inclined to choose growth will eventually outnumber and take over those who choose stagnation.&quot;

I agree but the controlled group will not necessarily stagnate, individuals will have enormous incentives to maintain their high per capita wealth, also lesser individuals means less coordination problems and will enable them to act more effectively in collectively leveraging their resources to protect their societies way of life.

&quot;Because otherwise they won’t be able to eat (buy their electricity and pay for their hardware).&quot;

Of course work will be required, but WHY would anyone do any interesting if the reward is only subsistence, there is no real ROI in purchasing an education or specialty, might as well become a subsistence farmer then... or more likely work the system to receive my meager subsistence ration.

The modern specialist economy and the resulting rapid progress we are seeing is the result of enormous surpluses, something like the Information economy is impossible in Robin&#039;s Malthusian world, em&#039;s or no em&#039;s.

The static stagnant group will be the one that can&#039;t control their population growth and fall into the Malthusian trap.

&quot;You could, but your descendants will either be few in number and irrelevant,&quot;

Money/Wealth also votes. I would in effect control my descendants numbers to maintain a minimal per capita wealth, this will allow them the &quot;luxury&quot; of education etc. making them smarter. Combine that with the significant resources of the Trust which could be leveraged to gain more resources allowing more growth etc.

Smaller, Smarter, Better Coordination, Significant Resources and the ability to effectively leverage it to grow. More power etc.

Far from stagnant, out competed and irrelevant.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;Unlikely it could be restricted in the long run – those inclined to choose growth will eventually outnumber and take over those who choose stagnation.&#8221;</p>
<p>I agree but the controlled group will not necessarily stagnate, individuals will have enormous incentives to maintain their high per capita wealth, also lesser individuals means less coordination problems and will enable them to act more effectively in collectively leveraging their resources to protect their societies way of life.</p>
<p>&#8220;Because otherwise they won’t be able to eat (buy their electricity and pay for their hardware).&#8221;</p>
<p>Of course work will be required, but WHY would anyone do any interesting if the reward is only subsistence, there is no real ROI in purchasing an education or specialty, might as well become a subsistence farmer then&#8230; or more likely work the system to receive my meager subsistence ration.</p>
<p>The modern specialist economy and the resulting rapid progress we are seeing is the result of enormous surpluses, something like the Information economy is impossible in Robin&#8217;s Malthusian world, em&#8217;s or no em&#8217;s.</p>
<p>The static stagnant group will be the one that can&#8217;t control their population growth and fall into the Malthusian trap.</p>
<p>&#8220;You could, but your descendants will either be few in number and irrelevant,&#8221;</p>
<p>Money/Wealth also votes. I would in effect control my descendants numbers to maintain a minimal per capita wealth, this will allow them the &#8220;luxury&#8221; of education etc. making them smarter. Combine that with the significant resources of the Trust which could be leveraged to gain more resources allowing more growth etc.</p>
<p>Smaller, Smarter, Better Coordination, Significant Resources and the ability to effectively leverage it to grow. More power etc.</p>
<p>Far from stagnant, out competed and irrelevant.</p>
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