Comments on: Come The Em Rev http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/02/come-the-em-rev.html Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future. Sun, 12 Feb 2012 01:09:57 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1.3 By: Overcoming Bias : Em City By Combo Auction http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/02/come-the-em-rev.html#comment-582376 Overcoming Bias : Em City By Combo Auction Fri, 02 Dec 2011 13:37:59 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=21725#comment-582376 [...] Rapid [em] growth will require huge rapid changes in economic organization, and supporting changes to business, legal, and political institutions. … Locations vying to be one of those [first em] centers may be open to big institutional change. … So if you have a favorite radical change you’d like the world to consider, you might give some thought to how your change could support a local em rev. (more) [...] [...] Rapid [em] growth will require huge rapid changes in economic organization, and supporting changes to business, legal, and political institutions. … Locations vying to be one of those [first em] centers may be open to big institutional change. … So if you have a favorite radical change you’d like the world to consider, you might give some thought to how your change could support a local em rev. (more) [...]

]]> By: Overcoming Bias : Religion As Standard http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/02/come-the-em-rev.html#comment-499490 Overcoming Bias : Religion As Standard Wed, 31 Aug 2011 22:13:56 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=21725#comment-499490 [...] cost of switching, it just won’t happen. So big change probably won’t happen until some new context where many folks expect private substitutes to work much [...] [...] cost of switching, it just won’t happen. So big change probably won’t happen until some new context where many folks expect private substitutes to work much [...]

]]> By: Overcoming Bias : Are Dictators The Future? http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/02/come-the-em-rev.html#comment-468527 Overcoming Bias : Are Dictators The Future? Sun, 20 Mar 2011 23:05:52 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=21725#comment-468527 [...] push for democracy.  Also, high payoffs for reacting quickly in a transition era may also favor a high tail of flexibility, also probably dominated by [...] [...] push for democracy.  Also, high payoffs for reacting quickly in a transition era may also favor a high tail of flexibility, also probably dominated by [...]

]]> By: Overcoming Bias : Our Worthy Overlords http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/02/come-the-em-rev.html#comment-466516 Overcoming Bias : Our Worthy Overlords Thu, 17 Feb 2011 15:42:15 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=21725#comment-466516 [...] more confident and justified in their sense of superiority, you may really hate the new world of emulations, which I guess will arrive within roughly a century or so. After all, you may take some comfort tha [...] [...] more confident and justified in their sense of superiority, you may really hate the new world of emulations, which I guess will arrive within roughly a century or so. After all, you may take some comfort tha [...]

]]> By: Matt Prather http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/02/come-the-em-rev.html#comment-463184 Matt Prather Wed, 05 Jan 2011 02:37:44 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=21725#comment-463184 This is the first time I'm reading about this "em" emulated brain concept. I see a much more "near", pertinent issue in the tendency of today's corporate and financial systems to reward businesses and individuals who already treat the masses of living people as "biological androids". Like Huxley's <em>Brave New World.</em> You don't have to hold your breath for three-to-fifteen decades to profit from the economics of this. It's already here and booming. Oh yeah, and the budget train-wreck isn't two decades out, either. It's already happened and they have been <a href="http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?pid=279885&l=cc697d927f&id=100000932503935" rel="nofollow">keeping things on life support</a> ever since 2008. This is the first time I’m reading about this “em” emulated brain concept. I see a much more “near”, pertinent issue in the tendency of today’s corporate and financial systems to reward businesses and individuals who already treat the masses of living people as “biological androids”. Like Huxley’s Brave New World. You don’t have to hold your breath for three-to-fifteen decades to profit from the economics of this. It’s already here and booming.

Oh yeah, and the budget train-wreck isn’t two decades out, either. It’s already happened and they have been keeping things on life support ever since 2008.

]]> By: Anders Sandberg http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/02/come-the-em-rev.html#comment-442211 Anders Sandberg Wed, 03 Feb 2010 20:38:16 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=21725#comment-442211 It is interesting to consider how the industrial-era political ideologies would deal with the em-econ. Liberalism would be concerned with ensuring the rights and freedom of persons, likely struggling to handle the political and economical quirks of copyable persons. Conservatism would want to preserve implicate social knowledge in the face of the change (it would of course have serious problems with the whole transition). Socialism would want to get the means of production under control by the "right" group, whether that is copy cooperatives, some avant garde etc. None of them seems to have speed and flexibility as a core ideological goal - liberalism would of course claim it would achieve it through harnessing individual initiative and institution-building, while socialism might think it could achieve greater coordination. But they all seem to be seriously hamstrung by their devotion to various pre-existing social institutions and assumptions about the nature of persons, societies and means of production. For decisionmaking, demarchy might become practical. Imagine randomly selecting ems and making a parliament copy of them, acting as a representative body (normal demarchy has problems with having to call citizens to a duty that interferes with their lives). This might be a group generating the values input into futarchy. It is interesting to consider how the industrial-era political ideologies would deal with the em-econ. Liberalism would be concerned with ensuring the rights and freedom of persons, likely struggling to handle the political and economical quirks of copyable persons. Conservatism would want to preserve implicate social knowledge in the face of the change (it would of course have serious problems with the whole transition). Socialism would want to get the means of production under control by the “right” group, whether that is copy cooperatives, some avant garde etc. None of them seems to have speed and flexibility as a core ideological goal – liberalism would of course claim it would achieve it through harnessing individual initiative and institution-building, while socialism might think it could achieve greater coordination. But they all seem to be seriously hamstrung by their devotion to various pre-existing social institutions and assumptions about the nature of persons, societies and means of production.

For decisionmaking, demarchy might become practical. Imagine randomly selecting ems and making a parliament copy of them, acting as a representative body (normal demarchy has problems with having to call citizens to a duty that interferes with their lives). This might be a group generating the values input into futarchy.

]]> By: Anonymous http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/02/come-the-em-rev.html#comment-442207 Anonymous Wed, 03 Feb 2010 19:08:32 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=21725#comment-442207 > industrialization, farming, and, I think, language No, just the first two. The age of language is quite unknown, so it is unclear whether its advent caused population growth. > industrialization, farming, and, I think, language

No, just the first two. The age of language is quite unknown, so it is unclear whether its advent caused population growth.

]]> By: Chris Hallquist http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/02/come-the-em-rev.html#comment-442128 Chris Hallquist Tue, 02 Feb 2010 18:29:43 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=21725#comment-442128 Thanks for pointing me towards that report. I haven't yet found the time to read it in detail, but based on my initial skim, it sounds like the issue of raw computing power may not be as large as I thought. I'm bothered, though, by the current lack of progress on modeling even simple nervous systems. One of my undergraduate professors had spent a good portion of of his life trying to figure out the nervous system of the nematode worm, and the problem turned out to be far more difficult than his team initially expected. They're still working on it. If three to fifteen decades is your estimate for time until human brain emulation, when do you think we can expect simple invertebrates to be worked out? Thanks for pointing me towards that report. I haven’t yet found the time to read it in detail, but based on my initial skim, it sounds like the issue of raw computing power may not be as large as I thought. I’m bothered, though, by the current lack of progress on modeling even simple nervous systems. One of my undergraduate professors had spent a good portion of of his life trying to figure out the nervous system of the nematode worm, and the problem turned out to be far more difficult than his team initially expected. They’re still working on it. If three to fifteen decades is your estimate for time until human brain emulation, when do you think we can expect simple invertebrates to be worked out?

]]> By: Stefano Bertolo http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/02/come-the-em-rev.html#comment-442111 Stefano Bertolo Tue, 02 Feb 2010 15:05:58 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=21725#comment-442111 From the point of view of institutions, do you think that the em-econ would benefit from the insulation afforded by <a href="http://www.chartercities.org/" rel="nofollow">charter cities</a>?</a> From the point of view of institutions, do you think that the em-econ would benefit from the insulation afforded by charter cities?

]]> By: Karl Smith http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/02/come-the-em-rev.html#comment-442110 Karl Smith Tue, 02 Feb 2010 15:02:06 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=21725#comment-442110 I have to agree with Wei Dai. Its seems reasonable that China and India could be fueled purely by catch-up. First, there have been a host of other countries which were accelerating towards US per capita GDP and suddenly slowed down as they approached, from the USSR to Western Europe to Japan. Clearly the USSR had much worse policies than the US but that did not stop a significant amount of catch-up. It might have seemed at one point that Germany and Japan had better policies and would finally be the ones to past the US. However, that didn't happen either. Second, pure theory suggests something that looks a lot like what we are seeing - immense capital deepening and technology transfer. If China were at the technological frontier in many industries then it would seem more reasonable that they would surpass the US. However, right now they are not. The fast growth is due to high rates of capital investment and using an increasing number of mature technologies. I have to agree with Wei Dai. Its seems reasonable that China and India could be fueled purely by catch-up.

First, there have been a host of other countries which were accelerating towards US per capita GDP and suddenly slowed down as they approached, from the USSR to Western Europe to Japan. Clearly the USSR had much worse policies than the US but that did not stop a significant amount of catch-up.

It might have seemed at one point that Germany and Japan had better policies and would finally be the ones to past the US. However, that didn’t happen either.

Second, pure theory suggests something that looks a lot like what we are seeing – immense capital deepening and technology transfer.

If China were at the technological frontier in many industries then it would seem more reasonable that they would surpass the US. However, right now they are not. The fast growth is due to high rates of capital investment and using an increasing number of mature technologies.

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