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	<title>Comments on: Capital In Conflict</title>
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	<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/02/capital-in-conflict.html</link>
	<description>Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future.</description>
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		<title>By: Robin Hanson</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/02/capital-in-conflict.html#comment-442427</link>
		<dc:creator>Robin Hanson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Feb 2010 01:25:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=21794#comment-442427</guid>
		<description>Wei, long ago max population probably also gave max total product, but it seems it was not the best mix for conflicts with neighbors.  Today, max total product is more nearly the best mix for conflicts with neighbors.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Wei, long ago max population probably also gave max total product, but it seems it was not the best mix for conflicts with neighbors.  Today, max total product is more nearly the best mix for conflicts with neighbors.</p>
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		<title>By: Wei Dai</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/02/capital-in-conflict.html#comment-442426</link>
		<dc:creator>Wei Dai</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Feb 2010 01:19:18 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>Looking more closely, I see that your explanation is a bit different, focusing on high capital being possibly useful for seduction, intimidation, and military power, instead of &quot;wealth and power&quot;. I guess your point is that high capital might increase power at the cost of wealth?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Looking more closely, I see that your explanation is a bit different, focusing on high capital being possibly useful for seduction, intimidation, and military power, instead of &#8220;wealth and power&#8221;. I guess your point is that high capital might increase power at the cost of wealth?</p>
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		<title>By: Robin Hanson</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/02/capital-in-conflict.html#comment-442424</link>
		<dc:creator>Robin Hanson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Feb 2010 01:16:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=21794#comment-442424</guid>
		<description>In our modern world capital is rather effective in war, so there is little danger that a capital labor mix that is optimal in times of peace is very wrong for times of war.  Among our Malthusian ancestors before industry, however, the max peace production mix may have been quite different from the mix that best defends against invasion.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In our modern world capital is rather effective in war, so there is little danger that a capital labor mix that is optimal in times of peace is very wrong for times of war.  Among our Malthusian ancestors before industry, however, the max peace production mix may have been quite different from the mix that best defends against invasion.</p>
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		<title>By: Wei Dai</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/02/capital-in-conflict.html#comment-442423</link>
		<dc:creator>Wei Dai</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Feb 2010 01:03:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=21794#comment-442423</guid>
		<description>&lt;blockquote&gt;On the slack clue, cultures that limited their fertility and work hours should have had more capital per person.  In conflicts with neighboring cultures, perhaps low capital cultures were more often intimidated or seduced by folks from individually-richer high capital cultures.  Or perhaps such capital was especially useful in warfare.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

This looks a lot like what I &lt;a href=&quot;http://lesswrong.com/lw/199/nonmalthusian_scenarios/&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;wrote&lt;/a&gt; a few months ago:

&lt;blockquote&gt;Maximizing the wealth and power of a nation requires an optimal mix of human and non-human capital. Nations that fail to adopt population controls find their relative wealth and power fade over time as their mixes deviate from the optimum (i.e., they find themselves spending too much resources on raising humans, and not enough on building machines), and either move to correct this or are taken over by stronger powers.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

But at that time, your response was &quot;On your capital argument, I think you need to learn more econ growth theory.&quot; Have you changed your mind, or are you making a different point here that I&#039;m misinterpreting to be the same as mine?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>On the slack clue, cultures that limited their fertility and work hours should have had more capital per person.  In conflicts with neighboring cultures, perhaps low capital cultures were more often intimidated or seduced by folks from individually-richer high capital cultures.  Or perhaps such capital was especially useful in warfare.</p></blockquote>
<p>This looks a lot like what I <a href="http://lesswrong.com/lw/199/nonmalthusian_scenarios/" rel="nofollow">wrote</a> a few months ago:</p>
<blockquote><p>Maximizing the wealth and power of a nation requires an optimal mix of human and non-human capital. Nations that fail to adopt population controls find their relative wealth and power fade over time as their mixes deviate from the optimum (i.e., they find themselves spending too much resources on raising humans, and not enough on building machines), and either move to correct this or are taken over by stronger powers.</p></blockquote>
<p>But at that time, your response was &#8220;On your capital argument, I think you need to learn more econ growth theory.&#8221; Have you changed your mind, or are you making a different point here that I&#8217;m misinterpreting to be the same as mine?</p>
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		<title>By: Jay</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/02/capital-in-conflict.html#comment-442422</link>
		<dc:creator>Jay</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Feb 2010 00:25:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=21794#comment-442422</guid>
		<description>I suspect that the limiting factor in preindustrial societies is arable land, not available labor.  Therefore, the societies may have been much closer to their limiting populations than your model suggests.

BTW, subsistence farmers may on average work light hours, but they work like crazy during planting and harvest.  When the crops are growing, there&#039;s less to do.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I suspect that the limiting factor in preindustrial societies is arable land, not available labor.  Therefore, the societies may have been much closer to their limiting populations than your model suggests.</p>
<p>BTW, subsistence farmers may on average work light hours, but they work like crazy during planting and harvest.  When the crops are growing, there&#8217;s less to do.</p>
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		<title>By: y81</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/02/capital-in-conflict.html#comment-442411</link>
		<dc:creator>y81</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 08 Feb 2010 21:57:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=21794#comment-442411</guid>
		<description>Looking at those past posts, which I hadn&#039;t read, and this one, don&#039;t we see a slightly different outcome than what Robin predicts?  The future will hold some planets which limit population and are very rich (even if per capita wealth tops out at 1,000,000 times today&#039;s average), and some populated to the Malthusian limit.  The rich planets will definitely be able to repulse wealth grabs by the poor ones, and may even rule over the poor ones.  (Isaac Asimov&#039;s &quot;robot detective&quot; novels involved a scenario sort of like this, as I recall.)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Looking at those past posts, which I hadn&#8217;t read, and this one, don&#8217;t we see a slightly different outcome than what Robin predicts?  The future will hold some planets which limit population and are very rich (even if per capita wealth tops out at 1,000,000 times today&#8217;s average), and some populated to the Malthusian limit.  The rich planets will definitely be able to repulse wealth grabs by the poor ones, and may even rule over the poor ones.  (Isaac Asimov&#8217;s &#8220;robot detective&#8221; novels involved a scenario sort of like this, as I recall.)</p>
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		<title>By: Tim Tyler</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/02/capital-in-conflict.html#comment-442406</link>
		<dc:creator>Tim Tyler</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 08 Feb 2010 18:55:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=21794#comment-442406</guid>
		<description>Not read Robin&#039;s arguments about that?  Perhaps try:

http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/09/future-fertility.html

http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/09/limits-to-growth.html</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Not read Robin&#8217;s arguments about that?  Perhaps try:</p>
<p><a href="http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/09/future-fertility.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/09/future-fertility.html</a></p>
<p><a href="http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/09/limits-to-growth.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/09/limits-to-growth.html</a></p>
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		<title>By: ERIC</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/02/capital-in-conflict.html#comment-442404</link>
		<dc:creator>ERIC</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 08 Feb 2010 16:40:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=21794#comment-442404</guid>
		<description>Continuing on y81&#039;s thought...I agree that investing in &quot;human&quot; capital seems to be beneficial. 

&quot;Perhaps labor is just especially useful in stealing capital&quot; ... interesting when you consider who steals the most today (I&#039;m excluding white-collar crimes here for sake of argument!).

&lt;strong&gt;Robin&lt;/strong&gt;, why would we &quot;return to such a state&quot;? If you believe that we are going to experience decreasing population growth, won&#039;t this ease the &quot;max sustainable level&quot; of population? For all of your talk about how things have improved over time and how much more room there is for improvement in general, why do you hold this contradictory and hopelessly pessimistic Malthusian view of the future? If I&#039;m mistaken, please correct me.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Continuing on y81&#8242;s thought&#8230;I agree that investing in &#8220;human&#8221; capital seems to be beneficial. </p>
<p>&#8220;Perhaps labor is just especially useful in stealing capital&#8221; &#8230; interesting when you consider who steals the most today (I&#8217;m excluding white-collar crimes here for sake of argument!).</p>
<p><strong>Robin</strong>, why would we &#8220;return to such a state&#8221;? If you believe that we are going to experience decreasing population growth, won&#8217;t this ease the &#8220;max sustainable level&#8221; of population? For all of your talk about how things have improved over time and how much more room there is for improvement in general, why do you hold this contradictory and hopelessly pessimistic Malthusian view of the future? If I&#8217;m mistaken, please correct me.</p>
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		<title>By: Lord</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/02/capital-in-conflict.html#comment-442366</link>
		<dc:creator>Lord</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 07 Feb 2010 22:37:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=21794#comment-442366</guid>
		<description>Both are consistent with a shortage of capital relative to labor and a desire for more capital.  The second argument seems weak.  One only lends what one is unable to make better use of themselves.  An interest rate equaling the population growth rate would mean an absence of lending since everyone could do better on their own, if not through investing then through consumption.  The better use may have been social or political rather than economic but the former do not preclude the latter and may even be multipliers of the latter.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Both are consistent with a shortage of capital relative to labor and a desire for more capital.  The second argument seems weak.  One only lends what one is unable to make better use of themselves.  An interest rate equaling the population growth rate would mean an absence of lending since everyone could do better on their own, if not through investing then through consumption.  The better use may have been social or political rather than economic but the former do not preclude the latter and may even be multipliers of the latter.</p>
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		<title>By: michael vassar</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/02/capital-in-conflict.html#comment-442361</link>
		<dc:creator>michael vassar</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 07 Feb 2010 16:33:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=21794#comment-442361</guid>
		<description>In short, specialization requires high human capital and far from near-death conditions.  Under near-death conditions the people specialized for violent conflict will destroy the people specialized in production and then starve.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In short, specialization requires high human capital and far from near-death conditions.  Under near-death conditions the people specialized for violent conflict will destroy the people specialized in production and then starve.</p>
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