Comments on: Will Tyler Tell? http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/01/will-tyler-tell.html Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future. Sun, 12 Feb 2012 03:06:37 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1.3 By: Mike Kenny http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/01/will-tyler-tell.html#comment-440102 Mike Kenny Wed, 06 Jan 2010 23:19:34 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=21314#comment-440102 Quite interesting! Not implausible given "Create Your Own Economy"--Sherlock Holmes comes to mind when thinking about Cowen's reputed predictive abilities about people! Quite interesting! Not implausible given “Create Your Own Economy”–Sherlock Holmes comes to mind when thinking about Cowen’s reputed predictive abilities about people!

]]> By: jay http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/01/will-tyler-tell.html#comment-440070 jay Wed, 06 Jan 2010 18:35:47 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=21314#comment-440070 It's likely because he's got wicked aspergers but has enough extra brain processes to compensate by constant analysis. Over the years he has internalized an ability to make predictions about people. This ability is not developed in the average person because their intuition is largely embedded, not constructed. That's my theory anyway. Speaking from experience, obviously. It’s likely because he’s got wicked aspergers but has enough extra brain processes to compensate by constant analysis. Over the years he has internalized an ability to make predictions about people.

This ability is not developed in the average person because their intuition is largely embedded, not constructed.

That’s my theory anyway. Speaking from experience, obviously.

]]> By: Aron http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/01/will-tyler-tell.html#comment-440036 Aron Wed, 06 Jan 2010 01:59:55 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=21314#comment-440036 "I’m not at all sure the world will reward him on net for such honesty, but it would still be his greatest contribution. " Because the net intelligence of the world is garbage? “I’m not at all sure the world will reward him on net for such honesty, but it would still be his greatest contribution. ”

Because the net intelligence of the world is garbage?

]]> By: Tim Tyler http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/01/will-tyler-tell.html#comment-440023 Tim Tyler Tue, 05 Jan 2010 22:15:22 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=21314#comment-440023 I don't see why. People are just not made with seeking the truth in mind. According to evolutionary biology 101, they are made to generate descendants. It's a whole different problem. Truth seeking - when it happens is pretty-much an incidental byproduct. I don’t see why. People are just not made with seeking the truth in mind. According to evolutionary biology 101, they are made to generate descendants. It’s a whole different problem. Truth seeking – when it happens is pretty-much an incidental byproduct.

]]> By: WillJ http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/01/will-tyler-tell.html#comment-440021 WillJ Tue, 05 Jan 2010 21:24:27 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=21314#comment-440021 Truth-seeking is a much easier theory to have of yourself than of other people. Truth-seeking is a much easier theory to have of yourself than of other people.

]]> By: Robin Hanson http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/01/will-tyler-tell.html#comment-440019 Robin Hanson Tue, 05 Jan 2010 20:50:17 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=21314#comment-440019 Non-truth-seeking is a much easier theory to have of other people than of yourself. Non-truth-seeking is a much easier theory to have of other people than of yourself.

]]> By: Mike Kenny http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/01/will-tyler-tell.html#comment-440017 Mike Kenny Tue, 05 Jan 2010 20:12:22 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=21314#comment-440017 Any theory on why Tyler has this ability? His voracious reading (fiction and non-fiction--fiction I believe is linked with empathy) as well as his chess background (learning to anticipate others, learning how chessmasters think) strike me as possibly useful places to look. Any theory on why Tyler has this ability? His voracious reading (fiction and non-fiction–fiction I believe is linked with empathy) as well as his chess background (learning to anticipate others, learning how chessmasters think) strike me as possibly useful places to look.

]]> By: Tim Tyler http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/01/will-tyler-tell.html#comment-440014 Tim Tyler Tue, 05 Jan 2010 19:43:57 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=21314#comment-440014 Bryan proposes Robin explain the problem of disagreement - and answers all the attempts to explain away the problem. I am not sure I can see the problem. People mostly disagree because they have different goals from one another. Updating each others beliefs often fails because agents want to signal their confidence in their own views to others by appearing to be unwavering, in order to manipulate them. Updating each others beliefs also sometimes fail because this is time-consuming - and the agents are poorly motivated to update the views of others. If there's a big mystery here, I am not sure I can see it. Attempts to explain the mystery often start off by assuming that the agents concerned are honest, truth seeing, truth-spreading agents. That's the problem, right there. Bryan proposes Robin explain the problem of disagreement – and answers all the attempts to explain away the problem.

I am not sure I can see the problem. People mostly disagree because they have different goals from one another. Updating each others beliefs often fails because agents want to signal their confidence in their own views to others by appearing to be unwavering, in order to manipulate them. Updating each others beliefs also sometimes fail because this is time-consuming – and the agents are poorly motivated to update the views of others.

If there’s a big mystery here, I am not sure I can see it. Attempts to explain the mystery often start off by assuming that the agents concerned are honest, truth seeing, truth-spreading agents. That’s the problem, right there.

]]> By: Roko http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/01/will-tyler-tell.html#comment-440011 Roko Tue, 05 Jan 2010 18:43:32 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=21314#comment-440011 Where can I find out more about Tyler's ideas? What exactly are we talking about here - ordinary people's hidden motivations? Where can I find out more about Tyler’s ideas? What exactly are we talking about here – ordinary people’s hidden motivations?

]]>