Comments on: Two Faces of Dreamtime http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/12/two-faces-of-dreamtime.html Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future. Sun, 12 Feb 2012 01:09:57 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1.3 By: Phil Goetz http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/12/two-faces-of-dreamtime.html#comment-438533 Phil Goetz Wed, 16 Dec 2009 00:26:22 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=20861#comment-438533 Beliefs that result in a high birthrate, such as believing that contraception is a sin, give religions that hold them a competitive advantage over other religions. It's just group selection. Doesn't have anything to do with religion per se. Beliefs that result in a high birthrate, such as believing that contraception is a sin, give religions that hold them a competitive advantage over other religions. It’s just group selection. Doesn’t have anything to do with religion per se.

]]> By: Phil Goetz http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/12/two-faces-of-dreamtime.html#comment-438532 Phil Goetz Wed, 16 Dec 2009 00:24:20 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=20861#comment-438532 I don't understand the connection between your two examples. Chinese people not wanting to give things up in order to have children aren't "dreaming". They're asserting their desires over their genetic programming. It would be more accurate to say they are waking from a dream. I don’t understand the connection between your two examples. Chinese people not wanting to give things up in order to have children aren’t “dreaming”. They’re asserting their desires over their genetic programming. It would be more accurate to say they are waking from a dream.

]]> By: Buck Farmer http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/12/two-faces-of-dreamtime.html#comment-438349 Buck Farmer Mon, 14 Dec 2009 12:43:28 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=20861#comment-438349 I think the argument is that our distant descendants would say the Chinese are in dreamtime because they can't understand why someone would choose to have fewer children. This assumes our distant descendants are the product of many successive generations of selection towards this belief (which makes sense in evolutionary logic, but does it come out in the data?). I think the argument is that our distant descendants would say the Chinese are in dreamtime because they can’t understand why someone would choose to have fewer children.

This assumes our distant descendants are the product of many successive generations of selection towards this belief (which makes sense in evolutionary logic, but does it come out in the data?).

]]> By: Noumenon http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/12/two-faces-of-dreamtime.html#comment-438339 Noumenon Mon, 14 Dec 2009 09:21:28 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=20861#comment-438339 You're saying the Chinese are in the dreamtime because they think having children is too much trouble? I thought the dreamtime was about people holding ideological beliefs that don't conform with reality. Whereas not wanting children can be a simple economic decision --cost versus benefit -- with no ideology behind it either way. Unless you're counting consumerism as an ideology that makes you choose your religion, spouse, and children like a consumer instead of to fit in with your tribe or whatever the "natural" way is. You’re saying the Chinese are in the dreamtime because they think having children is too much trouble? I thought the dreamtime was about people holding ideological beliefs that don’t conform with reality. Whereas not wanting children can be a simple economic decision –cost versus benefit — with no ideology behind it either way. Unless you’re counting consumerism as an ideology that makes you choose your religion, spouse, and children like a consumer instead of to fit in with your tribe or whatever the “natural” way is.

]]> By: Curt Adams http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/12/two-faces-of-dreamtime.html#comment-438302 Curt Adams Sun, 13 Dec 2009 16:14:42 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=20861#comment-438302 But have you had sudden *religious* insight on this blog? Because that's what the question asks. Sure, I've had insight reading this blog but no desire to convert to Hansonism. But have you had sudden *religious* insight on this blog? Because that’s what the question asks. Sure, I’ve had insight reading this blog but no desire to convert to Hansonism.

]]> By: Buck Farmer http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/12/two-faces-of-dreamtime.html#comment-438296 Buck Farmer Sun, 13 Dec 2009 11:36:37 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=20861#comment-438296 Does theism -> higher birthrate? Theism seems to generate the full spectrum...you've got sects for whom reproduction is a moral imperative, sects that forbid contraception, sects that permit contraception, and sects that forbid you from interacting with a member of the opposite sex (Shakers, anyone?) Naturally, it seems that sex that are anti-reproduction get...out propagated by sex that are pro or neutral reproduction. Still, human history since the industrial revolution has shifted away from quantity and towards quality (allegedly), so I take it that other forces are at play. People are getting <em>more spiritual and less reproductive</em> so I've not great faith that theism implies high birthrate. Does theism -> higher birthrate?

Theism seems to generate the full spectrum…you’ve got sects for whom reproduction is a moral imperative, sects that forbid contraception, sects that permit contraception, and sects that forbid you from interacting with a member of the opposite sex (Shakers, anyone?)

Naturally, it seems that sex that are anti-reproduction get…out propagated by sex that are pro or neutral reproduction. Still, human history since the industrial revolution has shifted away from quantity and towards quality (allegedly), so I take it that other forces are at play.

People are getting more spiritual and less reproductive so I’ve not great faith that theism implies high birthrate.

]]> By: Violet http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/12/two-faces-of-dreamtime.html#comment-438294 Violet Sun, 13 Dec 2009 11:07:54 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=20861#comment-438294 Being religious might be an evolutive advantage. Theist people seem to have a higher birthrate than atheists. Of course it may seem stupid and irrational, but if it results in more viable offspring then evolution does not care. Being religious might be an evolutive advantage.

Theist people seem to have a higher birthrate than atheists.

Of course it may seem stupid and irrational, but if it results in more viable offspring then evolution does not care.

]]> By: billswift http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/12/two-faces-of-dreamtime.html#comment-438288 billswift Sun, 13 Dec 2009 08:38:12 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=20861#comment-438288 <em>If</em> we spread to other star systems it probably will happen again and again, but only briefly each time. And if it is our electronic descendants who spread, very, very briefly given how quickly they could spread to fill a newly opened system. If we spread to other star systems it probably will happen again and again, but only briefly each time. And if it is our electronic descendants who spread, very, very briefly given how quickly they could spread to fill a newly opened system.

]]> By: billswift http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/12/two-faces-of-dreamtime.html#comment-438287 billswift Sun, 13 Dec 2009 08:34:15 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=20861#comment-438287 <em>Prosperity</em> is toxic to bullshit detectors (among other things). Prosperity is toxic to bullshit detectors (among other things).

]]> By: Buck Farmer http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/12/two-faces-of-dreamtime.html#comment-438270 Buck Farmer Sun, 13 Dec 2009 01:40:10 +0000 http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=20861#comment-438270 Eh. I'd say Pascal's Wager is evidence of what Robin calls our self-indulgence. Believing in undead is expensive in that it has implications for our behavior, and if nothing else our attention and mental states. Believing in God is also similarly expensive, but at least he promises us milk and honey up on rock candy mountain. The undead just bang around like relatives who think inviting their friends, dog, and postman unexpected are the most natural thing to do while you're going through a personal crisis. They're downright insensitive! In conclusion: EV(Not believe) >> EV(Believe) = EV(Not believe) - C(Believe) + R(Believe) Cost for believe (C) > 0 Return on believe (R) = ??? My gut says this is a poor wager. Eh. I’d say Pascal’s Wager is evidence of what Robin calls our self-indulgence.

Believing in undead is expensive in that it has implications for our behavior, and if nothing else our attention and mental states.

Believing in God is also similarly expensive, but at least he promises us milk and honey up on rock candy mountain. The undead just bang around like relatives who think inviting their friends, dog, and postman unexpected are the most natural thing to do while you’re going through a personal crisis. They’re downright insensitive!

In conclusion:

EV(Not believe) >> EV(Believe) = EV(Not believe) – C(Believe) + R(Believe)

Cost for believe (C) > 0
Return on believe (R) = ???

My gut says this is a poor wager.

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