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	<title>Comments on: Smoking Trials Again</title>
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	<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/12/smoking-followup.html</link>
	<description>Overcoming Bias is economist Robin Hanson’s blog, on honesty, signaling, disagreement, forecasting, and the far future.</description>
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		<title>By: Lexi</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/12/smoking-followup.html#comment-439610</link>
		<dc:creator>Lexi</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Dec 2009 05:11:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=21090#comment-439610</guid>
		<description>A question re # 10, It is interesting to me that the military veterans have a higher rate of death, and I&#039;m wondering if that is more likely to be attributed to the combination of smoking + trauma, as there are several studies that suggest that trauma reduces immune function and increases things like heart and cardiovascular disease?  (skip to &#039;findings&#039; http://xnet.kp.org/permanentejournal/winter02/goldtolead.html, while this article talks about child hood experiences that are adverse, it is likely that similar things are at play)  (this article talks about PTSD and reduction in immune function http://books.google.com/books?id=DkXxsTuZbMEC&amp;pg=PA531&amp;lpg=PA531&amp;dq=trauma+and+psycho-neuro-immunology&amp;source=bl&amp;ots=jupPtiucor&amp;sig=2NWM0Lmx-935MQ8c1DPkUP1oAxo&amp;hl=en&amp;ei=a8g6S_3gB4LosQPiopTBBA&amp;sa=X&amp;oi=book_result&amp;ct=result&amp;resnum=7&amp;ved=0CDEQ6AEwBg#v=onepage&amp;q=&amp;f=false)

Anyway, I&#039;m curious about what your thoughts are on those findings, and what role they may also play in the death rate of smokers?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A question re # 10, It is interesting to me that the military veterans have a higher rate of death, and I&#8217;m wondering if that is more likely to be attributed to the combination of smoking + trauma, as there are several studies that suggest that trauma reduces immune function and increases things like heart and cardiovascular disease?  (skip to &#8216;findings&#8217; <a href="http://xnet.kp.org/permanentejournal/winter02/goldtolead.html" rel="nofollow">http://xnet.kp.org/permanentejournal/winter02/goldtolead.html</a>, while this article talks about child hood experiences that are adverse, it is likely that similar things are at play)  (this article talks about PTSD and reduction in immune function <a href="http://books.google.com/books?id=DkXxsTuZbMEC&#038;pg=PA531&#038;lpg=PA531&#038;dq=trauma+and+psycho-neuro-immunology&#038;source=bl&#038;ots=jupPtiucor&#038;sig=2NWM0Lmx-935MQ8c1DPkUP1oAxo&#038;hl=en&#038;ei=a8g6S_3gB4LosQPiopTBBA&#038;sa=X&#038;oi=book_result&#038;ct=result&#038;resnum=7&#038;ved=0CDEQ6AEwBg#v=onepage&#038;q=&#038;f=false" rel="nofollow">http://books.google.com/books?id=DkXxsTuZbMEC&#038;pg=PA531&#038;lpg=PA531&#038;dq=trauma+and+psycho-neuro-immunology&#038;source=bl&#038;ots=jupPtiucor&#038;sig=2NWM0Lmx-935MQ8c1DPkUP1oAxo&#038;hl=en&#038;ei=a8g6S_3gB4LosQPiopTBBA&#038;sa=X&#038;oi=book_result&#038;ct=result&#038;resnum=7&#038;ved=0CDEQ6AEwBg#v=onepage&#038;q=&#038;f=false</a>)</p>
<p>Anyway, I&#8217;m curious about what your thoughts are on those findings, and what role they may also play in the death rate of smokers?</p>
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		<title>By: drewster</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/12/smoking-followup.html#comment-439508</link>
		<dc:creator>drewster</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 28 Dec 2009 21:42:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=21090#comment-439508</guid>
		<description>I think it maybe time to rename this blog &quot;Confirming Bias&quot;.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I think it maybe time to rename this blog &#8220;Confirming Bias&#8221;.</p>
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		<title>By: retired phlebotomist</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/12/smoking-followup.html#comment-439457</link>
		<dc:creator>retired phlebotomist</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 28 Dec 2009 04:47:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=21090#comment-439457</guid>
		<description>COPD is not obscure jargon for &quot;weak lungs.&quot;  It&#039;s chronic bronchitis and emphysema-- the 4th leading cause of death in the US.  

I do appreciate your dogged pursuit of your position.  I recommend you add this topic to your health econ class.  It has certainly helped me evaluate how committed you are to your putative quest for truth.

Glad you didn&#039;t quit blogging back a year back when you kept bringing it up.  Would&#039;ve missed out on near v far and dreamtime.

But you&#039;ve definitely dipped permanently below the &quot;high status&quot; meridian on this one, so my desire to affiliate w you is at an end.  ;)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>COPD is not obscure jargon for &#8220;weak lungs.&#8221;  It&#8217;s chronic bronchitis and emphysema&#8211; the 4th leading cause of death in the US.  </p>
<p>I do appreciate your dogged pursuit of your position.  I recommend you add this topic to your health econ class.  It has certainly helped me evaluate how committed you are to your putative quest for truth.</p>
<p>Glad you didn&#8217;t quit blogging back a year back when you kept bringing it up.  Would&#8217;ve missed out on near v far and dreamtime.</p>
<p>But you&#8217;ve definitely dipped permanently below the &#8220;high status&#8221; meridian on this one, so my desire to affiliate w you is at an end.  <img src='http://www.overcomingbias.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif' alt=';)' class='wp-smiley' /> </p>
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		<title>By: diogenese</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/12/smoking-followup.html#comment-439455</link>
		<dc:creator>diogenese</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 28 Dec 2009 04:12:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=21090#comment-439455</guid>
		<description>Robin --- dose-response curve is a term in any introductory text on epidemiology, statistics, or causal inference.  It basically means the more you smoke, the higher your risk --- people who smoke less have less risk. I would say its an &quot;expert term&quot; as much as &quot;opportunity cost&quot;, &quot;supply-demand&quot;, or &quot;variance&quot; are &quot;expert terms&quot;

FYI I&#039;ve cited the original studies --- you can find their modern updates yourself with google. Its already clear you can&#039;t be bothered to look at a review article, you can look some thing up yourself. 


HEH this point is utterly classic -- you should be EMBARRASSED. &lt;i&gt;Your “review” article is by Cornfield, one of the main partisans in this dispute, so it is hardly neutral, and it doesn’t mention randomized trials of any sort.&lt;/i&gt;

That&#039;s after you post studies funded by the Tobacco Industry and say they are &quot;professional&quot;. Seriously you should be ashamed of yourself. 

I guess reviews paid for by the Tobacco industry can be taken seriously, but those that believe smoking is linked to cancer and increased mortality aren&#039;t to be taken seriously. 

I think the first step to &quot;overcoming bias&quot; -- would be to get over your childish need to be contrarian.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Robin &#8212; dose-response curve is a term in any introductory text on epidemiology, statistics, or causal inference.  It basically means the more you smoke, the higher your risk &#8212; people who smoke less have less risk. I would say its an &#8220;expert term&#8221; as much as &#8220;opportunity cost&#8221;, &#8220;supply-demand&#8221;, or &#8220;variance&#8221; are &#8220;expert terms&#8221;</p>
<p>FYI I&#8217;ve cited the original studies &#8212; you can find their modern updates yourself with google. Its already clear you can&#8217;t be bothered to look at a review article, you can look some thing up yourself. </p>
<p>HEH this point is utterly classic &#8212; you should be EMBARRASSED. <i>Your “review” article is by Cornfield, one of the main partisans in this dispute, so it is hardly neutral, and it doesn’t mention randomized trials of any sort.</i></p>
<p>That&#8217;s after you post studies funded by the Tobacco Industry and say they are &#8220;professional&#8221;. Seriously you should be ashamed of yourself. </p>
<p>I guess reviews paid for by the Tobacco industry can be taken seriously, but those that believe smoking is linked to cancer and increased mortality aren&#8217;t to be taken seriously. </p>
<p>I think the first step to &#8220;overcoming bias&#8221; &#8212; would be to get over your childish need to be contrarian.</p>
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		<title>By: Robin Hanson</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/12/smoking-followup.html#comment-439454</link>
		<dc:creator>Robin Hanson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 28 Dec 2009 03:29:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=21090#comment-439454</guid>
		<description>diogenese, this is why experts use big words - I say &quot;weak lungs&quot;, a phrase my readers will understand, and you say I know nothing because I do not call it &quot;COPD&quot;.  (Apparently you also want me to throw out phrases like &quot;dose-response curve&quot; too.)  I&#039;ve focused initially on recent and randomized data, so naturally I haven&#039;t been discussing your four non-randomized studies from the 1950s.  Your &quot;review&quot; article is by Cornfield, one of the main partisans in this dispute, so it is hardly neutral, and it doesn&#039;t mention randomized trials of any sort.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>diogenese, this is why experts use big words &#8211; I say &#8220;weak lungs&#8221;, a phrase my readers will understand, and you say I know nothing because I do not call it &#8220;COPD&#8221;.  (Apparently you also want me to throw out phrases like &#8220;dose-response curve&#8221; too.)  I&#8217;ve focused initially on recent and randomized data, so naturally I haven&#8217;t been discussing your four non-randomized studies from the 1950s.  Your &#8220;review&#8221; article is by Cornfield, one of the main partisans in this dispute, so it is hardly neutral, and it doesn&#8217;t mention randomized trials of any sort.</p>
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		<title>By: diogenese</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/12/smoking-followup.html#comment-439447</link>
		<dc:creator>diogenese</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 28 Dec 2009 00:26:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=21090#comment-439447</guid>
		<description>Robin -- you have not cited ONE review article in any of your threads. Have you even bothered to look at one? There are thousands of studies on smoking ---- randomly selecting 10 studies without rhyme or reason doesn&#039;t make an argument.  For a topic this BROAD --- you have to start at a review article to find important studies (then of course you can argue against them with other studies you find yourself).  

Studies: 
1. Doll R, Hill AB. Lung cancer and other causes of death in relation to smoking; a second report on the mortality of British doctors. Brit M J (1956) 2:1071–1081.

2.) Schwartz D, Denoix P. L’enquette francaise sur l’etiologie du cancer broncho-pulmonaire: role du tabac. La Semaine des Hopitaux de Paris (1957) 33:424–437

3.) egi M, Fukushima I, Fugisaku S, et al. An epidemiological study on cancer in Japan. Gann (1957) 48:63.

4.) Dorn H. Tobacco consumption and mortality from cancer and other diseases. Acta Unio internat contra cancrum. In press.

5.) Hammond EC, Horn D. Smoking and death rates – report on forty-four months of follow-up of 187,783 men. JAMA (1958) 166:1159–1172. and 1294–1308.


Historical prospective and review of data can be found @ 
http://ije.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/full/38/5/1175#B9

Or start @ Surgeon Generals 2004 update report on smoking risk.  



BTW --- Obviously as this thread indicated you somehow had no idea what COPD was, it seems equally clear you don&#039;t know what a dose-response curve is.  I don&#039;t feel like its my job to educate you on pack-years and risk of disease.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Robin &#8212; you have not cited ONE review article in any of your threads. Have you even bothered to look at one? There are thousands of studies on smoking &#8212;- randomly selecting 10 studies without rhyme or reason doesn&#8217;t make an argument.  For a topic this BROAD &#8212; you have to start at a review article to find important studies (then of course you can argue against them with other studies you find yourself).  </p>
<p>Studies:<br />
1. Doll R, Hill AB. Lung cancer and other causes of death in relation to smoking; a second report on the mortality of British doctors. Brit M J (1956) 2:1071–1081.</p>
<p>2.) Schwartz D, Denoix P. L’enquette francaise sur l’etiologie du cancer broncho-pulmonaire: role du tabac. La Semaine des Hopitaux de Paris (1957) 33:424–437</p>
<p>3.) egi M, Fukushima I, Fugisaku S, et al. An epidemiological study on cancer in Japan. Gann (1957) 48:63.</p>
<p>4.) Dorn H. Tobacco consumption and mortality from cancer and other diseases. Acta Unio internat contra cancrum. In press.</p>
<p>5.) Hammond EC, Horn D. Smoking and death rates – report on forty-four months of follow-up of 187,783 men. JAMA (1958) 166:1159–1172. and 1294–1308.</p>
<p>Historical prospective and review of data can be found @<br />
<a href="http://ije.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/full/38/5/1175#B9" rel="nofollow">http://ije.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/full/38/5/1175#B9</a></p>
<p>Or start @ Surgeon Generals 2004 update report on smoking risk.  </p>
<p>BTW &#8212; Obviously as this thread indicated you somehow had no idea what COPD was, it seems equally clear you don&#8217;t know what a dose-response curve is.  I don&#8217;t feel like its my job to educate you on pack-years and risk of disease.</p>
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		<title>By: Overcoming Bias : Animal Smoking Studies</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/12/smoking-followup.html#comment-439437</link>
		<dc:creator>Overcoming Bias : Animal Smoking Studies</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 27 Dec 2009 21:46:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=21090#comment-439437</guid>
		<description>[...] Unwin points us to a nice history of the early smoking controversy, written by philosophers.  It [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] Unwin points us to a nice history of the early smoking controversy, written by philosophers.  It [...]</p>
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		<title>By: retired urologist</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/12/smoking-followup.html#comment-439436</link>
		<dc:creator>retired urologist</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 27 Dec 2009 21:27:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=21090#comment-439436</guid>
		<description>&lt;em&gt;I will not dismiss these reviews because their authors work for a tobacco company.&lt;/em&gt;

IIRC, you had quite a different attitude about the pharmaceutical company-sponsored research used to justify FDA approval of SSRI&#039;s for treatment of depression, as well as other pharmaceutical claims. Frankly, I&#039;m stunned that you, with no expertise whatever in the fields of oncology or pulmonary physiology, would accept industry-sponsored information because &quot;they seem professional&quot; (to you). One of the first steps a rationalist would take to &quot;overcome bias&quot; is the elimination of conflict of interest.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>I will not dismiss these reviews because their authors work for a tobacco company.</em></p>
<p>IIRC, you had quite a different attitude about the pharmaceutical company-sponsored research used to justify FDA approval of SSRI&#8217;s for treatment of depression, as well as other pharmaceutical claims. Frankly, I&#8217;m stunned that you, with no expertise whatever in the fields of oncology or pulmonary physiology, would accept industry-sponsored information because &#8220;they seem professional&#8221; (to you). One of the first steps a rationalist would take to &#8220;overcome bias&#8221; is the elimination of conflict of interest.</p>
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		<title>By: Robin Hanson</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/12/smoking-followup.html#comment-439435</link>
		<dc:creator>Robin Hanson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 27 Dec 2009 21:05:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=21090#comment-439435</guid>
		<description>I will not dismiss these reviews because their authors work for a tobacco company.  I&#039;ve read them and they seem professional.  There has been plenty of foul play on all sides in this history; if we used that to ignore folks affiliated with some side, we&#039;d be ignoring all sides.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I will not dismiss these reviews because their authors work for a tobacco company.  I&#8217;ve read them and they seem professional.  There has been plenty of foul play on all sides in this history; if we used that to ignore folks affiliated with some side, we&#8217;d be ignoring all sides.</p>
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		<title>By: Eliezer Yudkowsky</title>
		<link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/12/smoking-followup.html#comment-439433</link>
		<dc:creator>Eliezer Yudkowsky</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 27 Dec 2009 20:44:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.overcomingbias.com/?p=21090#comment-439433</guid>
		<description>Well &lt;em&gt;that&lt;/em&gt; got even &lt;em&gt;me &lt;/em&gt;to sit up and say &quot;What?&quot;  And the first thing I noticed about those studies is who does them:

&lt;blockquote&gt;Lorillard Tobacco Co., Greensboro, North Carolina&lt;/blockquote&gt;

The tobacco companies have a reputation for playing very dirty with science.  That was actually one of the first thoughts that occurred to me on reading your research summary - &quot;Are results like this rather more likely to pop up with tobacco-company-funded research?&quot;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Well <em>that</em> got even <em>me </em>to sit up and say &#8220;What?&#8221;  And the first thing I noticed about those studies is who does them:</p>
<blockquote><p>Lorillard Tobacco Co., Greensboro, North Carolina</p></blockquote>
<p>The tobacco companies have a reputation for playing very dirty with science.  That was actually one of the first thoughts that occurred to me on reading your research summary &#8211; &#8220;Are results like this rather more likely to pop up with tobacco-company-funded research?&#8221;</p>
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